Sandwiched between a bunch of big events, this week the PGA Tour heads up to a new course, TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the RBC Canadian Open. Let’s hit another winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7389 yards, plays long with six of the Par 4s longer than 480 yards, both Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field, two short Par 3s under 160 yards and two long Par 3s over 225 yards, wide fairways, 48 bunkers, just three water hazards, large poa-bentgrass greens, wind can play a big factor here
Tournament Notes
- This tournament changes courses on a regular basis
- First time this course is hosting a PGA Tour event
- This course hosted a Canadian Tour event in 2019 with Paul Jarjon winning at -25 over Taylor Pendrith and Jake Knapp and then a 2024 event won at -5 when it was very windy after course renovations in 2023
- This will be the first event as PGA Tour members for several NCAA and Korn Ferry grads
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards, 200+ yards
Field
156 golfers – Pretty good field strength for a non-signature event with Rory at the top of the board
Defending Champion (Hamilton Golf and Country Club): Robert MacIntyre (-16)
Runner Up Last Year (Hamilton Golf and Country Club): Ben Griffin (-15)
One and Done: Luke Clanton
One and Done Considerations: McIlroy, Lowry, Aberg, MacIntyre, Clanton
Players
Rory McIlroy: 11900: +500 – By far the best golfer in the field and this course maps out perfectly for him, has won this tournament twice since 2019, has won three times already this season with 47,7,1,5,1,15,17,1,9,11,68,MC,4,2,15 finishes in his last 15 events, 8th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 141st in Proximity (175–200 yards), 54th in Proximity (200+ yards), 29th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 102nd in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance
Robert MacIntyre: 9800: +2800 – Defending champion, has played well recently with 20,6,47,34,66,MC,9,11,MC,6,40,53,15,17,7,MC,50,1 finishes in his last 18 events, 20th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 106th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 25th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 40th in Proximity (175–200 yards), 90th in Proximity (200+ yards), 92nd in SG: ARG, 49th in Putting, 62nd in Opportunities Gained, 94th in Birdie+ Gained, 9th in Bogey Avoidance
Keith Mitchell: 9100: +5000 – Pops in my model this week and playing good golf, 36,MC,7,12,18,54,MC,42,25,33,21,30 finishes in his last twelve events, 18th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 13th in Driving Distance, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 43rd in Proximity (175–200 yards), 61st in Proximity (200+ yards), 133rd in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 84th in Bogey Avoidance
Luke Clanton: 9000: +4500 – This will be his first start since earning his Tour card, 42,18,MC,15,MC,2,50,5,MC,37,2,10,41 finishes on the PGA Tour, 12th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 16th in Driving Distance, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 18th in Proximity (175–200 yards), 31st in Proximity (200+ yards), 126th in SG: ARG, 44th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 51st in Bogey Avoidance
Nick Taylor: 8800: +4800 – Won this event two years ago on an epic walk off putt to win his national open, 4,MC,17,49,40,MC,MC,31,9,25,33,12,1,48 finishes in his last 14 events, 29th in Approach, 96th in SG: OTT, 141st in Driving Distance, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 38th in Proximity (175–200 yards), 11th in Proximity (200+ yards), 34th in SG: ARG, 57th in Putting, 36th in Opportunities Gained, 108th in Birdie+ Gained, 23rd in Bogey Avoidance
Ricky Castillo: 7200: +12500 – Pops as a long shot in my model and lines up well statistically, 59,5,MC,MC,12,MC,64,56,55,15,43 finishes in his last eleven events, 15th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 25th in Driving Distance, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 118th in Proximity (175–200 yards), 48th in Proximity (200+ yards), 45th in SG: ARG, 140th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 35th in Birdie+ Gained, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking his T6 each way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards) (10%)
Proximity (175-200 yards) (5%)
Proximity (200+ yards) (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Holes 1 and 18 are both Par 5s, so target golfers that start on 10 for birdie streaks on DK Showdown slates
Bets
Outrights
3u Rory McIlroy (+500)
.4u Robert MacIntyre (+2800)
.3u Luke Clanton (+4500)
.3u Nick Taylor (+4800)
.2u Keith Mitchell (+5000)
.1u Ricky Castillo (+12500)
T6 Each Ways
.1u Ricky Castillo (+2000)
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