This week we have the third major of the year, the US Open at a very difficult, classic track, Oakmont Country Club outside of Pittsburgh for a tough test with all the best golfers in the world.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7342 yards (almost 150 yards longer than in 2016), very tough course, five of the Par 4s are between 450-500 yards, both Par 5s are between 600-650 yards, rough is very difficult grown up to 5 inches and there isn’t a shorter first cut, high fescue if you miss wildly, 210 bunkers, hitting greenside bunkers are a better miss than hitting the fairways, fairways are sloped leaving weird lies, some fairway bunkers are very deep, no water on the course, lower than tour average driving accuracy (~54% vs. tour average ~62%), lower than tour average GIR percentage (~56% vs. tour average ~66%), far tougher scrambling percentage than tour average (~40% vs. tour average ~58%), massive very fast poa greens
Tournament Notes
- This will be the eleventh time this course is hosting a major championship, the most of any US Open course
- The last time being in 2016 when Dustin Johnson won the US Open here
- The cut is T60 and ties, making it the most difficult cut to make each year with the giant field
- Each of the last eleven winners of the US Open were ranking in the T35 (eight in the T25) in the world (this is a skewed stat since the OWGR is pretty much useless now)
- Eight of the last eleven winners of the US Open were American
- Ten of the last eleven winners previously had a T25 at a US Open
- Six of the last eleven winners previously had a T10 at a US Open
- Nine of the last eleven winners had a T10 in at least one of their two previous majors
- Seven of the last eleven winners were first time major winners
- Eight of the last eleven winners had a T15 in one of their two previous starts on the PGA or LIV
Key Stats
Approach, Good Drives Gained, Driving Distance, Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards)
Field
156 golfers – All the best in the world including the PGA Tour and LIV Golf
Defending Champion (Pinehurst): Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
Runner Up Last Year (Pinehurst): Rory McIlroy (-5)
One and Done: Shane Lowry
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, McIlroy, DeChambeau, Rahm, Lowry
Players
Joaquin Niemann: 8600: +3000 – Has the most wins on LIV with six wins since going there and four this season, coming off a win at LIV Virginia with 1,T20,1,T33,1,T12,T33 finishes, 32,47,31,23,MC finishes at US Opens, 12th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 34th in Good Drives Gained, 15th in Driving Distance, 45th in Sand Saves, 58th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 44th in SG: ARG, 108th in Putting, 6th in GIR Gained, 8th in Bogey Avoidance
Shane Lowry: 8600: +4800 – Playing great this year and has been in contention without being able to win, crumbled here in 2016 where he finished T2 after being the 54 hole leader, maps out perfectly for this course 19,20,MC,65,43,28,MC,46,2,9,MC finishes at US Opens, 13,23,MC,2,18,42,8,20,7,11,39,2 finishes this season, 2nd in Approach, 66th in SG: OTT, 6th in Good Drives Gained, 119th in Driving Distance, 52nd in Sand Saves, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 49th in SG: ARG, 99th in Putting, 9th in GIR Gained, 6th in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 7700: +6250 – Has won twice already this year (I cashed in on one of those), one of the only three golfers who have won more than once on the PGA Tour this year (and the only one not named Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, 56,MC,MC,28 finishes at US Opens, 3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15 finishes in his last 14 events, 3rd in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives Gained, 127th in Driving Distance, 106th in Sand Saves, 14th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 137th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 3rd in GIR Gained, 5th in Bogey Avoidance
Keegan Bradley: 7400: +9000 – He’s playing fantastic golf and seems to have a different level now as the Ryder Cup captain, missed the cut here in 2016, 7,8,30,18,MC,47,20,5,34,65,15,6,15,21,1 finishes in his last 15 events, 32,MC,7,MC,MC,MC,60,MC,27,4,MC,68 finishes at US Opens, 10th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 13th in Good Drives Gained, 25th in Driving Distance, 60th in Sand Saves, 16th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 13th in SG: ARG, 143rd in Putting, 16th in GIR Gained, 21st in Bogey Avoidance, also taking his T5
Harris English: 6700: +10000 – Playing really well this year and won at the Farmers (another difficult long course) this year and is top 5 in driving accuracy this year, finished 37th here in 2016, 12,53,2,11,66,12,18,30,MC,24,73,1 finishes in his last twelve events, 41,8,61,3,4,58,46,37,48 finishes at US Opens, 38th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 5th in Good Drives Gained, 90th in Driving Distance, 41st in Sand Saves, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 93rd in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 7th in GIR Gained, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking his T5
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards) (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
GIR Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Scottie and Bryson scare me, and I still think that Scottie Scheffler probably wins this tournament, but the prices on both of those guys aren’t worth it in the slightest to me, so I’m fading both of them
- I’m putting together a ridiculously chalky DK lineup here, but fuck it
Bets
Outrights
.4u Joaquin Niemann (+3000)
.3u Shane Lowry (+4800)
.2u Sepp Straka (+6250)
.2u Keegan Bradley (+9000)
.2u Harris English (+10000)
T5s (including ties)
.2u Keegan Bradley (+1000)
.2u Harris English (+1100)
DraftKings Lineups
Lineup: Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, Harris English
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