The Stanley Cup is in the building tonight! On Game 5 as Florida won 5-2 on the road on Saturday, I cashed once again, going 4-4 to win 1.04 units, staying profitable every game of these Cup Finals. Tonight the Panthers could win the Cup. Let’s stay perfect and cash!
Game 6: Panthers vs. Oilers (8:00)
The Stanley Cup will be in the building tonight in Sunrise as the Florida Panthers can lift Lord Stanley for the second year in a row with a win on home ice tonight to cap off this incredible series and these fantastic playoffs.
In Game 1, Leon Draisaitl opened the scoring just 1:06 into the game, but the Panthers, who I thought were the better team going into the series, came roaring back, with two Sam Bennett goals and a Brad Marchand goal to go up 3-1 just 2 minutes into the second period. Then it was the Oilers comeback, with Viktor Arvidsson getting the Oilers back within one just 1:17 after the second Bennett goal, and Mattias Ekholm tying the game 6:33 into the third period. Then after a long overtime with good chances on both sides, Draisaitl scored with 31 seconds left in the first overtime to win it 4-3 for the Oil. Solid win and the game essentially went as I expected, with Edmonton being the slightly better team at home in a close, entertaining game. The Oilers outshot the Panthers 46-32, with some shaky goaltending on both sides, and the game looking a little slow at time with the week off for both teams. Game 2 was even more electric, going to overtime once again. The first period was very high scoring, with five goals in the first 12:37 of the game, and the scoring starting early once again, as Sam Bennett opened the game up with a power play goal just 2:07 in. Florida got out to a 4-3 lead in the second period on Brad Marchand’s short handed goal, but late in the third period, with just 18 seconds left in regulation, Corey Perry tied it up at 4-4, sending the game to OT for the second game in a row of these Stanley Cup Finals. This time it was the Panthers that got the win on the road, tying the series and taking home ice, as Brad Marchand snuck the puck past Skinner to give Florida the win 8:05 into the second overtime. The Panthers dominated Game 3 on Monday when the series shifted down to Lauderdale. Brad Marchand scored just 56 seconds into the game, and it was all Florida after that, as they cruised their way to an embarrassing 6-1 win, completely shutting down Edmonton and chasing Stuart Skinner out of the net. Game 4 didn’t look great early for the Oilers, looking like it was going to be another blowout in Sunrise, as the Panthers got out to a 3-0 lead in the first period at home, with Matthew Tkachuk scoring twice on the power play and Anton Lundell scoring late in the period to go up 3-0 with Skinner getting pulled out of the goal for the second game in a row. The game flipped though in the second period, with the Oilers tying up the game heading into the third period, getting the momentum back in their favor. Jake Walman gave Edmonton their first lead of the game with 6:24 left in regulation as Cal Pickard didn’t allow a goal until just 19.5 seconds left, with Sam Reinhart tying the game up 4-4 in the midst of a bunch of chaos in front with Bob on the bench (cashing my Sam Bennett point prop). In overtime though, Leon Draisaitl completed the comeback, scoring to win it 5-4 and knot up the series on his third point of the game, scoring after not winning the Hart Trophy earlier in the day. That win cashed my big series bet for these Finals to go over 5.5 games. On the road in Game 5 on Saturday night, Brad Marchand led the way for the Panthers to take a 3-2 series lead on the road, as Florida won 5-2 in Edmonton, putting the Oilers a game away from elimination and the Cats a game away from hoisting Lord Stanley once again on home ice. The Oilers had some great chances early with Bobrovsky making huge saves to keep the game scoreless, but none other than Brad Marchand scored the first of the game 9:12 into the first period on a nasty move off the neutral zone faceoff, and Sam Bennett followed it up to make it 2-0 in the first. Marchand scored again to go up 3-0 early in the third, which would turn out to be the game winner. Both teams traded goals the rest of the way, with two goals in the last 3:13 to cash my over on the way to a 5-2 Panthers win on the road.
I don’t think this series ends up going to Game 7 like it did last year, and I think the season ends tonight with Florida lifting Lord Stanley at home for the second time in a row.
I’ll take the Panthers tonight for 1.5 units. I’ll also go right back to my same handful of bets I’ve been riding this whole series. The over has hit in every game of the series, and especially with the Oilers facing elimination, I like that to hit again. If they’re down in the third period, we’ll see the net empty early. I’ll take the over 6 for 2.5 units. I’ll take goal in the first ten minutes as well for a unit, that’s hit in four of the five games in this series already. On the Panthers side, I’m taking the same two point props with half a unit each on the two Conn Smythe leaders, Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand, which for Bennett has hit in every game of the Finals and in four out of five games for Marchand. I’ll mix it up slightly for the Oilers side and instead of taking them individually to get over 1.5 points each, I’ll parlay McDavid and Draisaitl to each get a point, laying the -183 to win a unit. Additionally, Sergei Bobrovsky has hit the over on his saves in Games 1-4 of this series (lost in Game 5 when I jumped on it), but with the Oilers in desperation mode, they should try to pour it on here, and I’ll go back to the over on Bob’s saves for half a unit.
Let’s cap the season, and these Stanley Cup Finals with yet another winning night!
I considered betting both Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett to win the Conn Smythe, but I don’t really think it’s worth betting either. Although it feels like Marchand has had a bigger impact on this series, Bennett has five more goals and two more points in the playoffs, which Marchand isn’t catching. Also, if the Oilers find a way to win tonight and win the Cup at home in Game 7, I think Draisaitl ends up winning it, making the -170 not worth betting on Bennett. I’ll stay off this market completely.
If this ends up being the last game of the season, as I expect it to be, it’s been a great, profitable playoffs and a ton of fun to watch after a regular season that wasn’t the best for me. Thanks to those that read these blogs every day and followed along with me, tailing my bets and making some money! It’s always a blast to write these, especially in the playoffs. I’ll be back again next year, breaking down every game, let’s have a great 2025-2026 season…or an incredible Game 7!
Game Bets
1.5u Panthers ML (-148)
2.5u Panthers/Oilers over 6 (-125)
1u Goal in First Ten Minutes (-160)
.5u Sam Bennett over 0.5 point (-135)
.5u Brad Marchand over 0.5 point (-115)
1u parlay: Connor McDavid over 0.5 point/Leon Draisaitl over 0.5 point (-183)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky over 27.5 saves (-125)
Records
Regular Season: 567-497-14 (-58.18 units)
Round 1: 40-39 (-1.19 units)
Round 2: 24-20 (+1.39 units)
Round 3: 15-14-1 (+4.68 units)
Finals: 16-10 (+11.94 units)
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A Town's Zone 