Following last week’s crazy US Open, this week the PGA Tour heads up to TPC Riviera Highlands in Hartford, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship, the last signature event of the year.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 6844 yards, shortest course on tour this season, Pete Dye designed course, eight of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, both Par 5s are reachable and there’s a short and drivable Par 4, guys could club down and hit their spots where they want, lot of birdie opportunities here, doesn’t favor any particular ball flight, wide and easy fairways to hit here (~68% vs. ~62% tour average), trees in play if you miss the fairways, the fairways get narrower the farther from the tee you go and around the landing area at about 300 yards, 69 bunkers, water in play on five holes and isn’t a big factor, first cut of rough isn’t very penal but gets tougher with bigger misses, top ten hardest courses on tour to scramble from the rough, soft and receptive predominately POA greens with a mix of bentgrass, greens are smaller but slightly easier than average to hit (~68% vs. ~66% tour average), fast greens have a bit of slope and not much undulation, lot of the greens are elevated, pins could be located in tough spots, greens are guarded by collection areas, water, thick rough and bunkers
Tournament Notes
- 4 of the last 15 winners got their first career win here
- Each of the last five winners here played in the US Open the previous week, four made the cut at the US Open, and three finished in the T15 at the US Open
- 5 of the last 12 winners were coming into the week off a missed cut in their previous event
- 9 of the last 11 winners have posted at least a T30 here before winning
- Since 2001, only 2 golfers (Phil in 2001, Spieth in 2017) won on their first time here
- SG: OTT is much more important here than ATG, but both are outweighed by approach, as usual
- No cut event this week
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.6%)
Corollary Courses
- Pete Dye tracks. Slightly different than other Pete Dye tracks but still has a lot of similar elements
- Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success
- Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship) – lot of crossover success
Field
72 golfers – Signature event with a loaded field
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-22 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Tom Kim (-22)
One and Done: Jordan Spieth
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Morikawa, Spieth
Players
Collin Morikawa: 10200: +1800 – He’s playing great this season, especially with his irons but hasn’t won in 2 years, led the US Open in approach by almost three strokes and couldn’t putt, 13,MC,MC,36 finishes here, 23,20,50,17,54,14,10,2,17,17,2,54,2 finishes in his last 13 events, 5th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 31st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 33rd in Par 5 Scoring, 45th in SG: ARG, 62nd in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 17th in Birdie+ Gained
Justin Thomas: 9300: +3300 – Hasn’t played great lately but won this season (which I cashed on) and his odds are good enough to bet it, solid course history with 5,9,MC,36,56,MC,3,MC,30 finishes here, MC,31,MC,2,1,36,2,33,36,9,5,48,2,26,2,14 finishes in his last 16 events, 16th in Approach, 50th in SG: OTT, 51st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 18th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 26th in Par 5 Scoring, 25th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained
Sepp Straka: 9200: +3500 – Was very good on approach and off the tee at the US Open but was horrendous putting (almost 9 strokes worse than his previous start), only 2x winner on tour this year not named Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, 23,38,MC,10,MC,MC finishes here, MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15 finishes in his last 15 events, 3rd in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 12th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 35th in Par 4 Scoring, 55th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 12th in Par 5 Scoring, 67th in SG: ARG, 28th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained
Jordan Spieth: 8200: +5500 – It’s always an experience with this guy and hasn’t won since 2022 with only two wins since 2017 but he maps out nicely for this course, won here in electric fashion in 2017 when he beat Berger with the timeless bunker shot in 2017 his first time here, 23,7,36,MC,34,4,18,14,12,38,59,9,MC,4 finishes in his last 14 events, 63,MC,54,MC,42,1 finishes here, 26th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 56th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 12th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 26th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained
Luke Clanton: 7400: +10000 – Missed the cut at the Canadian Open a couple weeks ago in his first start since going pro, MC,42,18,MC,15,MC,2,50,5,MC,37,2,10,41 finishes on the PGA Tour, first time playing this event, 19th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 18th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 66th in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5s (with ties paid in full)
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- There’s a slight advantage on Showdown slates for birdie streaks if golfers start on the back nine due to the wraparound
- I hit the winner here on Scottie Scheffler last season
- I think Scottie probably wins this week, but I just can’t lay the +300 here on him
Bets
Outrights
.6u Collin Morikawa (+1800)
.4u Justin Thomas (+3300)
.4u Sepp Straka (+3500)
.2u Jordan Spieth (+5500)
.2u Luke Clanton (+10000)
T5s (ties paid in full)
.2u Luke Clanton (+1300)
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