Following last week’s electric finish at the Travelers, this week the PGA Tour goes back to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Classic. Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7370 yards, Donald Ross design, the course is a combo of the North and South course on the property, flattest course on tour so this should play much shorter than the yardage of the course, seven of the Par 4s range from 395-455 yards, four of the Par 4s are under 400 yards, four of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, two of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, two of the Par 5s are reachable by most of the field with another one reachable by some, birdiefest, 87 bunkers, water in play on only one hole, tree lined fairways, fairway bunkers in the landing zones but not much trouble, undulating fairways and greens, less than driver on some holes but most guys still bomb it and average drives here were 12 yards longer than average, one of the longest average driving distance on tour (~296 yards vs. 284 yards tour average) since there is a ton of roll after it gets burned out with 50% of drives here going longer than 300 yards, mainly straight holes (not many doglegs on Donald Ross designs), slightly below average fairway widths, easier to hit fairways than tour average (66% vs. 62% tour average), 3.5-4 inch rough which hasn’t really been penal at all, missing wildly off the tee could lead to approach shots over trees from nice lies on other fairways and should be easy for these guys to hit in most spots, barely less than average sized greens, easy to hit greens (73% GIR vs. tour average 66%), bunkers surrounding the greens, greens slope heavily from back to front with heavy undulation, Bluegrass greens (mix of mostly POA with around 20% bentgrass), some of the most birdies and eagles here of any courses on tour
Tournament Notes
- 2019 was the first year that this tournament was held, replacing the Quicken Loans National and was the first PGA event at Detroit Golf Club
- Everyone in the T20 in 2019 here gained strokes putting. Putting matters here but its the one stat thats so variable that its not worth even looking at on a week to week basis. This is pretty much a putting contest since its a very easy course
- In 2020, of the top 16 guys in SG: OTT they all made the cut besides Bubba and the rest of them besides Kevin Chappell (T62) finished in the T30
- Even with very high winds in 2021, the winning score was still -18 and more than half the golfers that made the cut still finished -10 or better
- Approach and SG: OTT are much closer here than a lot of other courses and guys can bomb and gouge it, but that’s not the only path to success
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (23.1%), 150-175 yards. (18.1%), 125-150 yards (17.9%)
Corollary Courses
East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – both similar Donald Ross design courses
Field
156 golfers – Not as horrendous of a field as I expected, but it isn’t great
Defending Champion: Cam Davis (-18)
Runner Up Last Year: Aaron Rai, Davis Thompson, Min Woo Lee, Akshay Bhatia (-17)
One and Done: Patrick Cantlay
One and Done Considerations: Morikawa, Cantlay, Griffin
Players
Collin Morikawa: 10900: +1200 – One of the top players in the field, his irons have been fantastic but hasn’t put it all together for a win in 2 years, led the field in approach at the US Open a few weeks ago, finished 2nd his only time here in 2023, 42,23,20,50,17,54,14,10,2,17,17,2,54,2 finishes in his last 14 events, 2nd in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 4th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 24th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 98th in Proximity 200+ yards, 15th in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 74th in Par 5 Scoring, 70th in SG: ARG, 114th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained
Ben Griffin: 9800: +2200 – Playing incredible golf lately and keeps popping on leaderboards this year with a win already this season at the Charles Schwab, 31 and 33 finishes here the last two years, 14,10,2,1,8,46,MC,40,18,MC,MC,45,4,4 finishes in his last 14 events, 3rd in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 38th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 41st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 61st in Proximity 200+ yards, 9th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 55th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 40th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained
Luke Clanton: 9000: +4800 – Got his Tour Card a couple weeks ago before he missed the cut at the Canadian Open, finished 10th here last year in his first PGA Tour event, 34,MC,23,20,50,17,54,14,10,2,17,17,2,54,2 finishes in his last 13 events, 16th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 12th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 77th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 69th in Proximity 200+ yards, 66th in Par 3 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 24th in Par 5 Scoring, 116th in SG: ARG, 43rd in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Emiliano Grillo: 7400: +7000 – Pops in my model with great iron play, MC and 39 finishes his two times here in 2021 and 2020, 19,24,16,MC,18,47,22,67 finishes in his last eight events, 9th in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 10th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 60th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 73rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 14th in Par 3 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 64th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 78th in Par 5 Scoring, 140th in SG: ARG, 34th in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 62nd in Birdie+ Gained
Ricky Castillo: 7100: +12500 – Pops in my model again, first time playing this event, MC,59,5,MC,MC,12,MC,64,56,55,15,43 finishes in his last twelve events, 21st in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 99th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 16th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 52nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 101st in Par 3 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 29th in Par 5 Scoring, 38th in SG: ARG, 137th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 35th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T6 Each Way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I hit the winner on Rickie Fowler here in 2023
- Last year I had both Aaron Rai and Akshay Bhatia (who three putt the 72nd hole to lose), who both finished T2
Bets
Outrights
1u Collin Morikawa (+1200)
.5u Ben Griffin (+2200)
.3u Luke Clanton (+4800)
.2u Emiliano Grillo (+7000)
.1u Ricky Castillo (+12500)
T6 Each Ways
.1u Ricky Castillo (+2500)
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