This week the PGA Tour heads to the Quad Cities for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, with one of the worst fields in golf this year.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7289 yards, bentgrass throughout, top ten easiest course on tour on a yearly basis, five of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, the three Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field along with the drivable Par 4 14th, wide tree lined fairways guarded by large bunkers in the landing zones, 4 inch rough is fairly penal but doesn’t come in play that often since driving accuracy is ~71% (tour average ~62%), fairways usually play firm with a good amount of roll with lot of uneven lies and undulations in the fairway, three water hazards in play on three holes, large greens guarded by bunkers and collection areas, greens are very easy to hit and very receptive with ~70% GIR (vs. tour average ~66%) and slow with a bit of undulation and slope, one of the easiest course on tour for putting with almost 20% of putts from 15-25 feet going in the hole, getting up and down is difficult though if you miss the green, 76 bunkers on the course that were all completely rebuilt and slightly changed after the 2021 event, this place is a birdiefest with the most birdies on tour and there are nine holes with a birdie rate of 20%+
Tournament Notes
- There have been 24 first time winners here since 1971, the most of any PGA Tour event
- Since 2008, 8 of the 15 winners were in the T50 of the OWGR (6 of the 13 were in the T20) and two of the ones outside of that were Spieth and Bryson when they won, who went on to become superstars. This stat doesn’t mean much though this week with how weak the field is
- In 2018, every golfer that finished in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yards and all besides Varner gained from 175-200 yards. In 2019, all but Frittelli (who was putting lights out on the way to his win) and Chris Stroud, everyone in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yards.
- This used to be the last chance into the Open Championship but that is no longer the case with the current schedule.
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (20.6%), 125-150 yards (20.2%), 150-175 yards (18.9%)
Corollary Courses
Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions) – Lots of winners of this had success at Kapalua, but barely any are in the field this week
Field
156 golfers – Horrible field strength, probably the worst of the year
Defending Champion: Davis Thompson (-28)
Runner Up Last Year: Michael Thorbjornsen, C.T. Pan, Luke Clanton (-24)
One and Done: Ben Griffin
One and Done Considerations: Ben Griffin
Players
Ben Griffin: 10400: +1600 – I can’t believe I’m betting him as the favorite at this price but he’s playing fantastic golf and has already won this year at the Charles Schwab, finished 5th his first time here last year, 13,14,10,2,1,8,46,MC,40,18,MC,MC,45,4,4 finishes in his last 15 events, , 4th in Approach, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 60th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 46th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 61st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 55th in Proximity 200+ yards, 40th in SG: ARG, 11th in Putting, 64th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained
Jake Knapp: 9400: +3500 – One of the top players in the field even though he hasn’t played all that great lately, finished 52nd here his first time playing this event last year, 4,27,MC,MC,MC,39,MC,27,MC,12,6,25,17,44,33,32 finishes in his last 15 events, 38th in Approach, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 93rd in Proximity 125–150 yards, 68th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 28th in Proximity 200+ yards, 65th in SG: ARG, 16th in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained
Michael Thorbjornsen: 9100: +2800 – Pretty terrible in my model but I’m going with him more as a feel play, coming off a big week finishing 4th at the Rocket Mortgage last week and was a runner up here last year, 2 and 17 finishes here the last two years, 4,41,54,33,MC,39 finishes in his last six events, 63rd in Approach, 88th in Par 4 Scoring, 46th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 56th in Par 5 Scoring, 82nd in Proximity 125–150 yards, 91st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 116th in SG: ARG, 109th in Putting, 28th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained
Luke Clanton: 8700: +3500 – Right back on him again this week, hasn’t been great since getting his tour card a few weeks ago, runner up here his first time here as an amateur last year, 60,34,MC,23,20,50,17,54,14,10,2,17,17,2,54,2 finishes in his last 14 events, 12th in Approach, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 50th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 60th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 49th in Proximity 200+ yards, 106th in SG: ARG, 57th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Kevin Roy: 7400: +7000 – Playing decent golf lately and pops in my model, finished 31st his only time here last year, 8,18,46,15,40 finishes in his last five events, 16th in Approach, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 51st in Par 5 Scoring, 136th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 51st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 32nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 90th in SG: ARG, 69th in Putting, 79th in Opportunities Gained, 48th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5
Sami Valimaki: 7300: +10000 – Has had some decent finishes in bad events this year and pops in my model, 19,MC,MC,39,18,12,4,36,69,48,34,MC,15,MC finishes this season, finished 12th in his only time here last year, 7th in Approach, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 57th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 59th in Par 5 Scoring, 19th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 10th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 48th in Proximity 200+ yards, 76th in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 68th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5
Jackson Suber: 7000: +13000 – I was inside the ropes following his group at the RBC Canadian Open and his ball striking was fantastic, coming off a fantastic week finishing 6th at the Rocket Mortgage, 6,18,53 finishes in his last three events and finished 6th at the Sony early this year, first time playing this event, 8th in Approach, 125th in Par 4 Scoring, 73rd in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 116th in Par 5 Scoring, 110th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 33rd in Proximity 150–175 yards, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 99th in SG: ARG, 88th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 43rd in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5 and T10
Model
Approach (25%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (15%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Ownership percentage could play more of a factor due to the ridiculously weak field
- This could be a good week to catch great numbers live, especially on Thursday and Friday
- 9 and 18 are the two hardest holes on the course, so not real advantage for the wraparound on Showdown slates (although there is a very little bit of an edge to guys starting on 10)
- I hit the winner on Davis Thompson here last year at +2300
Bets
Outrights
.7u Ben Griffin (+1600)
.4u Michael Thorbjornsen (+2800)
.3u Jake Knapp (+3500)
.3u Luke Clanton (+3500)
.2u Kevin Roy (+7000)
.1u Sami Valimaki (+10000) FA
.1u Jackson Suber (+13000) FA
T5s (Including ties)
.2u Kevin Roy (+1300)
.1u Sami Valimaki (+1600)
.1u Jackson Suber (+1800)
T10s (Including ties)
.1u Jackson Suber (+850)
DraftKings Lineup
Ben Griffin/Michael Thorbjornsen/Luke Clanton/Kevin Roy/Sami Valimaki/Jackson Suber
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