The PGA Tour heads to Edinburgh this week for the Genesis Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club for a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour with a big field before next week’s Open Championship.
Course Breakdown
Par 70 (used to be a Par 71), 7237 yards, the scoring in this event is highly dependent on weather with wind being the biggest defense on the course with the winning scores ranging from -7 to -22, links style course with some parkland elements, different setup than a typical Par 70 course with ten Par 4s (seven ranging from 448-505 yards), five Par 3s and three Par 5s, only four holes play alongside the ocean but the course has all of the other elements of a links course, average to above average sized rolling fairways with a good amount of undulation and mounds, fairways usually play firm and fast, much lower than average driving accuracy (~52% vs. tour average ~62%), much longer than tour average driving distance (~294 yards vs. ~284), deep fairway pot bunkers that are pretty hard to get out of (18% GIR rate here from a fairway bunker vs. tour average ~49%), first cut of rough isn’t penal whatsoever if you just miss the fairway but gets much thicker as you go farther out, a few trees and some high fescue in areas if you miss wildly off the tee, no water hazards in play, pretty slow fescue greens that can see big inconsistencies in speed from hole to hole, elevated and large massively undulating upside down bowl shaped greens that should play firm but slow, lots of pot bunkers guarding greens and large runoff areas
Tournament Notes
- This is a co-sanctioned event by the DP World Tour and PGA Tour, the fourth year this has been the case
- This will be the seventh year this course has hosted this event for the DP World Tour
- Final event to qualify for The Open
- Early start since they’re in Scotland, so make sure to lock in your picks today
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 0-75 yards (26%), 200+ yards (20.2%)
Field
156 golfers – very good field strength along with the best DP World Tour players
Defending Champion: Robert MacIntyre (-18)
Runner Up Last Year: Adam Scott (-17)
One and Done: Matt Fitzpatrick (doesn’t matter for me, I’m so far out of both contests)
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, McIlroy, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Burns
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 13100: +500 – Best golfer in the world, 3,MC,12 finishes his three times here from 2021-2023, playing fantastic golf right now with three wins in his last six starts with 6,7,1,4,1,1,8,4,2,20,11,3,25,9,1,33,4,7,1 finishes in his last 19 events, 1st in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 45th in Good Drives, 1st in Sand Saves, 1st in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogey Avoidance
Tommy Fleetwood: 9900: +2200 – Playing excellent golf this year and has been in contention and not able to close and blew it on the 72nd hole to lose at the Travelers in his last start, technically this is a DP World Tour event so I can actually see Tommy winning it at home, fantastic course history here including his playoff loss to Aaron Rai in 2020 (when it was just a DP World Tour event), T34,6,4,T26,2 finishes here the last five years, 2,MC,16,4,41,4,7,21,62,16,14,11,5,22,20,5,22 finishes in his last 17 events, 23rd in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 61st in Good Drives, 83rd in Sand Saves, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 26th in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 53rd in SG: ARG, 30th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained, 30th in Bogey Avoidance
Collin Morikawa: 9600: +2800 – One of the top players in the field and his price is solid, his irons have been fantastic but hasn’t put it all together for a win in 2 years, led the field in approach at the US Open a few weeks ago, he has a very good caddy on the bag this week in Billy Foster, 4,MC,71 finishes his two times here in 2024, 2022, and 2021, 8,42,23,20,50,17,54,14,10,2,17,17,2,54,2 finishes in his last 15 events, 4th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 131st in Good Drives, 14th in Sand Saves, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring, 47th in Par 4 Scoring, 82nd in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 69th in Par 5 Scoring, 98th in Proximity 200+ yards, 130th in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 43rd in Birdie+ Gained, 43rd in Bogey Avoidance
Matt Fitzpatrick: 8800: +4500 – His irons and wedges are clicking at a fantastic level right now while he’s hitting the driver well, home game for him in Europe, 39,MC,6,2,42,14 finishes here, 8,17,38,31,8,23,38,40 finishes in his last eight events, 49th in Approach, 57th in SG: OTT, 34th in Good Drives, 108th in Sand Saves, 38th in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 33rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 105th in SG: ARG, 56th in Putting, 103rd in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained, 33rd in Bogey Avoidance
Si Woo Kim: 7700: +9000 – Can pop on a leaderboard and win anywhere and maps out nicely for this course statistically, 11,84,42,31,28,8,17,15,8,MC,MC,38,19,24,21,12 finishes in his last 16 events, 39,MC,6,MC finishes here, 18th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 12th in Good Drives, 42nd in Sand Saves, 21st in Par 3 Scoring, 48th in Par 4 Scoring, 43rd in Par 4 Scoring (450–500 yards), 87th in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 139th in SG: ARG, 36th in Putting, 69th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking his T6 each way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- At the ISCO Championship alternate event, I’m not doing any writeup of it, but am betting my guy Jackson Suber on the outright and T5. I considered Kevin Roy (who cashed me his T5 last week) and Emiliano Grillo but couldn’t get there with either of those guys at 18:1
Bets
Outrights
2u Scottie Scheffler (+500)
.5u Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
.5u Collin Morikawa (+2800)
.3u Matt Fitzpatrick (+4500)
.2u Si Woo Kim (+9000)
T6 Each Ways
.2u Si Woo Kim (+1600)
ISCO Championship Picks
.2u Jackson Suber – outright (+7500)
.2u Jackson Suber – T5 (ties paid in full) (+1440)
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