The golf season’s flying by and we’re already at the final major of the year, the Open Championship. The British Open this year will take place at Royal Portrush in Ireland, let’s hit the winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7381 yards, fairly different than most links style courses that the Open Championship is typically hosted on, just 35 bunkers (the fewest in the rotation of Open courses) that are in the landing areas and around the greens, one of the Par 5s is reachable in two by most of the field, no water in play, average sized fairways with tons of mounds and undulations, more lush than most other Open rotation courses without as much roll on tee shots in the fairway, long rough and steep runoffs if you miss the fairways and greens, OB in play (stakes visible), guys may go less than driver to hit the fairways (making the course play shorter), elevated green complexes that force golfers to chip rather than doing bump and runs around the green like most other Open rotation courses, slow average sized (smaller than most other Open rotation course) Fescue greens with lots of slopes and undulations, swirling winds and prevailing winds off the coast are the course’s biggest defense
Tournament Notes
- Final major of the year
- Top 70 and ties make the cut, more than the usual T65 and ties
- This is the only event of the year besides The Masters with no split tees, so everyone starts on 1 and no one starts on 10. This means there’s going to be some long days of golf and stacking tee times for weather splits has to be done so in shorter pockets than in just AM/PM waves
- This will be the third time this course has hosted the Open Championship, and just the second in the last 50 years. The last time was in 2019 when Shane Lowry dominated the field and winning by six strokes
- Since Henrik Stenson winning in 2016, every winner besides Brian Harman last year of The Open Championship have finished at least T11 in one of their three previous majors (Harman finished 6th the previous year at The Open)
- In the last twelve years, only Ernie Els and Shane Lowry were winners outside of the Top 30 in the world in the year that they won
- Since 2011, outside of Ernie Els in 2012, each Champion Golfer either had a win or three Top T13’s in their six starts prior to winning the Open.
- Since 2008, only Collin Morikawa had fewer than four previous Open appearances before winning the Open
- Since 2008, beside Xander Schauffele last year (who finished 17th in 2023) and Brian Harman in 2023 (who was 6th in 2022), no one since Paddy Harrington (who won for the second straight year) had finished better than T30 in their previous Open start
- 7 of the past 14 winners had missed the cut in their Open the year prior to becoming champion, so history the prior year doesn’t matter as much but experience on links style courses is important
- Eight of the last 13 winners were 32 years old or older
- Ten of the last twelve winners had a T20 in one of the other majors that season
- 16 of the last 19 winners finished T9 or better in a previous year
- Two of the last eleven winners won their last start prior to winning the Open and four of the last eleven had a win in one of their two lead in events.
- Six of the last eleven winners had a win in one of the previous five starts prior to winning The Open. The outliers were Zach Johnson in 2015 who had three T10s in the five starts prior to winning at St. Andrews, Shane Lowry in 2019 who had three T10s in his four prior starts, Collin Morikawa in 2020 who had two T5s in his previous two starts and four T10s in his prior five starts, Cam Smith in 2022 who had three T13s in his previous six starts and a win at The Players earlier in the season, and Brian Harman in 2023 who went into The Open with 12,9,2 finishes in his previous three events
- Eight of the last eleven winners had a T10 at The Open in the five years prior to their win. Morikawa in 2020 (who won in his first Open Championship), Cam Smith in 2022 (who’s best finish was 20th prior), and Xander Schauffele last year (who was 17,15 the two prior years and previously finished 2nd at The Open in 2018) are the three outliers
- Since 2011, every winner of The Open has either won a major or came in second at a major prior to their win.
- The last three Open Championship winners have had success at the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club the previous week since that event became co-sanctioned between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour (Xander was T15 last year, Brian Harman was T12 in 2023, and Cam Smith was T10 in 2022)
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, SG: OTT, Bogie Avoidance
Corollary Courses
- PGA National (Cognizant Classic) – tons of crossover success from 2019 and the Honda Classic, the same skill set is needed with driving accuracy and good ARG play
Field
156 golfers – all the best golfers in the world on the PGA Tour, DP World Tour & LIV Golf
Defending Champion (Royal Troon): Xander Schauffele (-9)
Runner Up Last Year (Royal Troon): Billy Horschel, Justin Rose (-7)
One and Done: Tyrrell Hatton
One and Done Considerations: McIlroy, Scheffler, Hatton, Rahm
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 14200: +550 – Best golfer in the world, three time major champion, did not play here in 2019, 7,23,21,8 finishes at Open Championships, playing fantastic golf right now with three wins in his last seven starts with 8,6,7,1,4,1,1,8,4,2,20,11,3,25,9,1,33,4,7,1 finishes in his last 20 events, 1st in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 8th in Good Drives Gained, 44th in Driving Distance, 11th in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 6th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Bogey Avoidance
Jon Rahm: 10400: +1560 – One of the top three golfers in the world, two time major champion, finished T11 here in 2019, 7,2,34,3,11,MC,44,59 finishes at The Open, 7,8,14 finishes at the other three majors this year, 2,T11,T8,T7,4 finishes on LIV this season, 27th in Approach, 47th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Good Drives Gained, 7th in Driving Distance, 54th in SG: ARG, 64th in Putting, 107th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 100th in Par 5 Scoring, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Bogey Avoidance
Tyrrell Hatton: 8900: +3300 – Has the talent to win his first major here at a course that matches nicely to his skill set, MC,20,11,MC,6,51,MC,5,MC,MC,MC,MC finishes at The Open, finished T6 here in 2019, 4,6,14 finishes at the other three majors this year, T23,T5,T15,T13,T5 finishes on LIV this season, 31st in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 37th in Good Drives Gained, 46th in Driving Distance, 5th in SG: ARG, 99th in Putting, 62nd in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 49th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 26th in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Bogey Avoidance
Russell Henley: 7900: +6500 – Pops in my model and has been excellent T2G and on approach this season, did not play here in 2019, HISTORY finishes at The Open, 2,10,5,MC,46,8,MC,30,1,6,39,5,10,30,4,22,30,5,48,7 finishes in his last 20 events, won in windy conditions at a long course this year at Bay Hill, three top 10s in the last four years and a win in 2014 at PGA National (correlated course), 11th in Approach, 70th in SG: OTT, 6th in Good Drives Gained, 132nd in Driving Distance, 4th in SG: ARG, 57th in Putting, 12th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 36th in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 5 Scoring, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 7400: +5500 – Has played excellent golf this year and once again pops in my model, besides Scottie he’s second in Approach per round this season, won twice already this season, did not play here in 2019, 22,2,MC finishes at The Open, has had good finishes including a win at PGA National (correlated course), 7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15 finishes in his last 17 events, 4th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drives Gained, 100th in Driving Distance, 117th in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 52nd in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 67th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Bogey Avoidance
Keegan Bradley: 6700: +10000 – He’s playing fantastic golf and seems to have a different level now as the Ryder Cup captain (that will likely end up playing), missed the cut here in 2019, doesn’t have a great Open Championship track record with MC,MC,MC,MC,MC,79,18,MC,19,15,34 finishes at The Open, won a few weeks ago at the Travelers, 41,1,33,7,8,30,18,MC,47,20,5,34,65,15,6,15,21,1 finishes in his last 18 events, 33rd in Approach, 32nd in SG: OTT, 19th in Good Drives Gained, 35th in Driving Distance, 2nd in SG: ARG, 105th in Putting, 10th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 89th in Par 5 Scoring, 44th in Opportunities Gained, 51st in Bogey Avoidance, also taking the T7 Each Way
Harry Hall: 6400: +11000 – Pops as a huge sleeper in my model, did not play here in 2019, first time playing this event, 17,13,9,24,6,19,33,26,18,54 finishes in his last ten events, 28th in Approach, 65th in SG: OTT, 14th in Good Drives Gained, 87th in Driving Distance, 43rd in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 5th in Par 3 Scoring (175–200 yards), 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 38th in Par 5 Scoring, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 25th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking the T5 (ties paid in full)
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
SG: ARG (15%)
Putting (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (175-200 yards) (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Big card for me this week, but fuck it, last major of the year – let’s win!
Bets
Outrights
2u Scottie Scheffler (+550)
1u Jon Rahm (+1560)
.4u Tyrrell Hatton (+3300)
.2u Sepp Straka (+5500)
.2u Russell Henley (+6500)
.2u Keegan Bradley (+10000)
.1u Harry Hall (+11000)
T7 Each Ways
.1u Keegan Bradley (+1600)
T5 (Ties Paid in Full)
.1u Harry Hall (+1820)
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