Coming off Scottie Scheffler’s dominant Open Championship win (and cashing my +550 outright), this week the PGA Tour heads back to the US for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minneapolis. Let’s win back to back!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7431 yards, designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman, altitude above sea level so shots will go farther than normal, lot of tee boxes so the length of the course could be adjusted easily from round to round, very easy course, was a birdiefest on the Sr. Tour (average winning score of -21) which continued on the PGA but has played a bit tougher the last few years, three of the four Par 3’s are over 200 yards, the Par 4s range quite a bit in distance, the Par 5s are long but can be reachable by some of the field, ton of water here with 27 water hazards (in play on 15 holes), 72 bunkers on the course, wide tree lined fairways around an average of 36 yards in width, weird fescue if you miss wildly off the tee and miss the water, only 2.5 inch regular rough that isn’t penal, bunkers in the landing zones and water in play on a lot of holes, trees aren’t bunched up with a lot of room between the trees and fairway, above average size relatively flat greens, run off area only on the front of most greens, bunkers, water and some rough surrounding the greens, pure bentgrass greens (only Colonial and Augusta have that), tour average driving accuracy, better than tour average GIR % (~71% vs. 66%), longer than tour average driving distance (~291 vs. 284 yards), wind could make the course a bit tougher but its still pretty easy to score on
Tournament Notes
- Only the seventh year that this tournament has existed
- Formerly this course hosted the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour
- SG: ARG has barely any impact whatsoever on finishes here
- Before 2023 where this didn’t apply to four of the twelve golfers that finished T10, every golfer with a T10 finish here has gained on both approach and SG: T2G (in 2022 Danny Willett lost 0.1 strokes on approach). Last year all but two of the eleven golfers in the T10 gained strokes T2G and on approach
- In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained at least 2.2 SG: OTT (all but one gained in SG: OTT). In 2020, 9 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT. In 2021, 10 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT (Brian Stuard lost 0.3 strokes). In 2022, 10 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT. In 2023, only two golfers in the T19 gained in SG: OTT. Last year all but one of the 18 golfer in the T12 gained in SG: OTT.
- In 2019 and 2020, everyone that finished T10 had at least 19 birdies or better for the tournament. In 2021, the 11 golfers that finished T10, had at least 15 (6 of those 11 had at least 19) and played a bit more difficult with windier conditions. In 2023, every golfer that finished T10 had at least 18 birdies or better.
- In 2019, the 12 golfers that finished T10 averaged 23 birdies or better and all were -16 or better and there were only 3 double bogies or worse
- In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 shot -7 or better on the Par 4s and only Sam Burns and Troy Merritt shot worse than -5
- Distance in 2023 off the tee didn’t seem to mean much despite the average driving distance here being a good amount longer than tour average, with none of the Top 12 in distance finishing T15, but seven of the top nine finishers gained at least 2.7 strokes OTT
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.7%), 175-200 yards (21.4%)
Corollary Courses
PGA National (The Honda Classic) – Crossover success, has a ton of water and along with PGA National, this course has the most approach shots on Tour between 175-200 yards
Field
156 golfers – terrible field strength
Defending Champion: Jhonattan Vegas (-17)
Runner Up Last Year: Max Greyserman (-16)
One and Done: Michael Thorbjornsen
One and Done Considerations: Michael Thorbjornsen, Jake Knapp
Players
Jake Knapp: 8900: +3500 – One of the top players in the field and he has the ability to win, especially ball striking well lately and bombs it off the tee, his putting has been improving a lot recently, WD here last year in his only time playing this event, 22,21,4,27,MC,MC,MC,39,MC,27,MC,12,6,25,17,44,33,32 finishes in his last 17 events, 46th in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 126th in Good Drives, 99th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 117th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 39th in Proximity 200+ yards, 62nd in SG: ARG, 14th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Michael Thorbjornsen: 8500: +3500 – Good form coming in especially off the tee, his biggest issue lately is ARG which is mitigated here, missed the cut here last year in his only time playing this event, 14,21,4,41,54,33,MC,39 finishes in his last eight events, 41st in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 13th in Good Drives, 12th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 66th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 5 Scoring, 33rd in Proximity 175–200 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 117th in SG: ARG, 99th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained
Emiliano Grillo: 8400: +5500 – Maps out great statistically for this course, fantastic course history with 24,10,2,MC,3 finishes here the past five years, 40,2,73,19,24,16 finishes in his last six events, 23rd in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 11th in Good Drives, 119th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 93rd in Par 5 Scoring, 40th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 60th in Proximity 200+ yards, 132nd in SG: ARG, 17th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 49th in Birdie+ Gained
Kevin Yu: 8000: +5000 – Third in my model this week and maps out perfectly for this course, his approach play has been solid this year and he’s been putting way better now, 73 and 37 finishes here the past two years, MC,34,21,25,3,MC,50,29,MC,18,12 finishes in his last eleven events, 28th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 45th in Good Drives, 1st in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 15th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 31st in Proximity 200+ yards, 101st in SG: ARG, 64th in Putting, 31st in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained
Kevin Roy: 7300: +9000 – Playing excellent golf right now with great numbers off the tee and on approach, missed the cut here in 2023 in his only time playing this event, MC,3,8,18,46,15,40 finishes in his last seven events, 11th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 40th in Good Drives, 45th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 31st in Par 5 Scoring, 21st in Proximity 175–200 yards, 49th in Proximity 200+ yards, 57th in SG: ARG, 68th in Putting, 94th in Opportunities Gained, 25th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5
Jackson Suber: 6900: +14300 – I was inside the ropes following his group at the RBC Canadian Open and his ball striking was fantastic, has been very good on approach and has some decent finishes on easy scoring courses, first time playing this event, 45,MC,6,18,53 finishes in his last five events and finished 6th at the Sony early this year, 9th in Approach, 114th in SG: OTT, 104th in Good Drives, 16th in Par 3 Scoring (200–225 yards), 106th in Par 4 Scoring, 114th in Par 5 Scoring, 35th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 15th in Proximity 200+ yards, 98th in SG: ARG, 109th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 48th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5 (+2000) and T10 (+900)
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- For showdown slates, it’s a slight advantage to stack guys that start on the back nine since 9 is one of the toughest holes on the course but 18 and 1 are two of the easiest
Bets
Outrights
.3u Jake Knapp (+3500)
.3u Michael Thorbjornsen (+3500)
.2u Kevin Yu (+5000)
.2u Emiliano Grillo (+5500)
.2u Kevin Roy (+9000)
.1u Jackson Suber (+14300)
T5s (Including Ties)
.2u Kevin Roy (+1300)
.1u Jackson Suber (+2000)
T10s (Including Ties)
.1u Jackson Suber (+900)
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