The PGA Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC for the final event of the regular season, the Wyndham Championship before we head to the FedEx Cup Playoffs next week. Let’s close the regular season with another outright win!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7131 yards, Donald Ross design, one of the easiest courses on tour, birdiefest, Bermuda grass throughout, 52 bunkers, water in play on six holes, both Par 5s are easily reachable by the entire field (over 70 eagles on the two Par 5s in 2019), eight of the twelve Par 4s are in 400-450 yards range, two Par 4s play over 500 yards, average sized tree lined fairways, just a few fairway bunkers, light rough but there could be weird lies out of the Bermuda grass making distance control tough, lot of less than driver off the tee, placement off the tee is more important than length similar to a Pete Dye design, GIR % is way higher than tour average (~73% vs. 66%), GIR from the fairway is over 80% and GIR from the rough is around 50% so that’s a huge gap, small to average sized undulated and sloped multi-tiered greens (back to front), very fast green speeds, there are a lot of shallow bunkers and water guarding the greens on a few holes, edges of the greens are crowned with large collection areas, one of the toughest putting courses on tour which is a staple of Donald Ross designs, high three putt percentage (~68% vs. 54% tour average) with the greens being the biggest defense of the course
Tournament Notes
- The Wyndham Championship has been played here since 2008, but the greens were changed to Bermuda from bentgrass in 2012
- Final event of the regular PGA Tour season before the FedEx Cup playoffs (Top 70 make the FedEx St. Jude Championship next week), so it makes this event matter a lot more but when this was to make the top 125 it didn’t seem to shake out to any actual results for the players on the bubble.
- Any skill set can win here
- Course history plays a big factor here
- 9 of the last 13 winners have ranked T15 for the week in driving accuracy (last year Glover was first)
- 7 of the last 9 winners here have won at -20 or better
Key Stats
Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s 400-450 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (26.8%)
Corollary Courses
- Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- Waialae Country Club (Sony Open)
- TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS)
Crossover success and similar setups with short Par 70s and Bermuda grass
Field
156 golfers – Pretty lousy field
Defending Champion: Aaron Rai (-18)
Runner Up Last Year: Max Greyserman (-16)
One and Done: Akshay Bhatia
One and Done Considerations: Keegan Bradley, Akshay Bhatia
Players
Keegan Bradley: 10300: +2600 – He’s playing fantastic golf and seems to have a different level now as the Ryder Cup captain that will likely end up playing and can solidify himself playing on points and not have to make himself a captain’s pick, won earlier this year at the Travelers with an awesome approach shot on the 72nd hole, 22,42,46 finishes here, 30,41,1,33,7,8,30,18,MC,47,20,5,34,65,15,6,15,21,1 finishes in his last 19 events, 30th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 29th in Par 4 Scoring, 48th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 51st in Fairways Gained, 43rd in Proximity 150–175 yards, 44th in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in SG: ARG, 102nd in Putting, 26th in 3-Putt Avoidance
Ben Griffin: 10100: +2500 – Playing spectacular golf this year and won already this season at the Charles Schwab with a ton of very good finishes, spectacular course history with 7 and 4 finishes here, MC,MC,13,14,10,2,1,8,46,MC,40,18,MC,MC,45,4,4 finishes in his last 17 events, 7th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 79th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 105th in Fairways Gained, 53rd in Proximity 150–175 yards, 55th in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Birdie+ Gained, 50th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 24th in 3-Putt Avoidance
Harry Hall: 9200: +5000 – Pops as first in my model this week, has played very well at short courses that’s less than driver, missed the cut his only time here last year, 28,17,13,9,24,6,19,33,26,18,54 finishes in his last eleven events, 27th in Approach, 63rd in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 55th in Fairways Gained, 10th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 45th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 1st in 3-Putt Avoidance
Akshay Bhatia: 9000: +4500 – He had a horrendous Sunday last week or would have easily won after being a 54 hole leader, hasn’t had a great year but he’s second in my model this week, three missed cuts here his three times he played this event (last year, 2021, and 2020), 25,30,26,54,MC,16,22,MC,46,42,42,MC,3,MC,9,9,32,22,32 finishes in his last 19 events, 1st in Approach, 111th in SG: OTT, 37th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 72nd in Fairways Gained, 4th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained, 126th in SG: ARG, 49th in Putting, 10th in 3-Putt Avoidance
Lucas Glover: 8900: +4500 – Pops in my model and lines up nicely for the course statistically after playing great in a lot of shitty field events this season, solid history here with MC,54,MC,MC,72,28,22,18,MC,MC,30,7,24,20,20 finishes here, 23,5,9,MC,MC,22,37,66,61,MC,8,3,36,MC,31,MC,3,MC,21,30 finishes in his last 20 events, 10th in Approach, 74th in SG: OTT, 63rd in Par 4 Scoring, 65th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 22nd in Fairways Gained, 16th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 43rd in Birdie+ Gained, 31st in SG: ARG, 130th in Putting, 132nd in 3-Putt Avoidance
Emiliano Grillo: 7500: +7000 – Third in my model this week and I’m going right back to betting him, 59 and MC finishes here, 20,40,2,73,19,24,16 finishes in his last seven events, 6th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 44th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 3rd in Fairways Gained, 30th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 58th in Birdie+ Gained, 133rd in SG: ARG, 14th in Putting, 5th in 3-Putt Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (15%)
Fairways Gained (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
3 Putt Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I hit the winner here last year on Aaron Rai
Bets
Outrights
.5u Ben Griffin (+2500)
.5u Keegan Bradley (+2600)
.3u Akshay Bhatia (+4500)
.3u Lucas Glover (+4500)
.3u Harry Hall (+5000)
.2u Emiliano Grillo (+7000)
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