This week the PGA Tour begins the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the Top 70 heading to TPC Southwind in Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Let’s not just hit one, but two outright winners this week!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7288 yards, plays significantly longer with the way that the course is set up, one of the top 15 hardest courses on tour every year, seven of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, both Par 5s are reachable, most balls in the water (in play on eleven holes) of any course on tour by a substantial amount (almost 1400 more than the next which is TPC Sawgrass), back nine is very difficult with holes 17 and 18 here see over 200 bogies or worse through the week, driving accuracy is way lower than tour average (56% vs. 62%), lower GIR % than tour average (59% vs. 66%), narrow and very difficult to hit Zoysia grass fairways, trees, bunkers and water in play if you miss the fairway, Bermuda rough which is hard to judge distance out of but it isn’t too thick or tall, both GIR and proximity sharply decline from the rough, smaller than average Bermuda greens surrounded by bunkers and water, top five easiest putting greens on Tour, third highest one putt percentage on tour, fourth lowest three putt percentage on tour, fast (12 on the stimpmeter), firm and undulating greens
Tournament Notes
- First of the 3 events of the FedEx Cup Playoffs
- No cut event
- This event used to be the Top 125 players in the FedEx Cup playoffs qualifying. Two years ago that changed to the Top 70
- The Top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings after this week will advance to the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Baltimore next week
- This course and event used to be a WGC no cut event from 2019-2021 with the best players in the world and prior to that was the St. Jude Classic, a much weaker field event during the regular season
- Prior when this course hosted this event as a WGC, a lot of the top end players historically didn’t play this course much so course history may not be as helpful as in other events due to the difference in field strength and format throughout the years
- SG: Approach is historically 2.5x times more important than SG: OTT here
- The player that ended the week 1st in SG: T2G here won the event 8 of the last 13 years (Ancer in 2021 was fourth, Glover in 2023 was fourth and Cantlay, who lost in a playoff, was first.)
- The opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs has been won by a player in the T25 OWGR 15/19 times
- 6 of the last 10 winners of the opening playoff event had a victory already in the calendar year that they won (Zalatoris in 2022 didn’t have a win but had three 2nd place finishes. Glover in 2023 won back to back after winning the Wyndham the prior week.)
- 5 of the last 10 winners of the opening playoff event entered the week in the T10 of the FedEx Cup standings (Zalatoris in 2022 was 12th going into the playoffs and Hideki last year was 12th)
- 10 of the last 14 winners of the opening playoff event finished T22 in their previous start before winning and were in good form coming into this tournament
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, GIR Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (25.5%)
Field
69 golfers – Top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings besides Rory McIlroy
Last Year Champion: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
Runner Up Last Year: Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland (-15)
One and Done: Viktor Hovland
One and Done Considerations: Take the best elite player that you have left. I used them all already so I’m just rolling with the best available. I’m already so out of the money that it doesn’t matter.
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 13000: +317 – Coming off his impressive Open Championship win I’m going back to the best golfer in the world even at this lousy price, has four wins in his last eight starts, 1,8,6,7,1,4,1,1,8,4,2,20,11,3,25,9,1,33,4,7,1 finishes in his last 21 events, 4,31,MC,14,15 finishes here, 1st in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 24th in Fairways Gained, 5th in Good Drives Gained, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 450–500 yards, 3rd in Proximity 150–175 yards, 1st in GIRs Gained, 8th in SG: ARG, 5th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogey Avoidance
Viktor Hovland: 9300: +3500 – Perfect fit for this course and has had success in the past in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, been fantastic on approach and T2G this year (hasn’t lost strokes on approach since the Sentry), won earlier this season at the Valspar, runner up here last year with 2,13,20,36,59 finishes here, 63,11,3,25,28,54,13,21,1 finishes in his last nine events, 2nd in Approach, 57th in SG: OTT, 29th in Fairways Gained, 20th in Good Drives Gained, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring 450–500 yards, 10th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 11th in GIRs Gained, 47th in SG: ARG, 50th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 41st in Bogey Avoidance, taking him in the without Scheffler market at the slightly lower price
Collin Morikawa: 9100: +3300 – His irons have been fantastic this season but hasn’t put it all together for a win in 2 years and is coming off two bad missed cuts overseas, 22,13,5,26,20 finishes here, MC,MC,8,42,23,20,50,17,54,14,10,2,17,17,2,54,2 finishes in his last 17 events, 5th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 4th in Fairways Gained, 11th in Good Drives Gained, 51st in Par 4 Scoring 450–500 yards, 17th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 14th in GIRs Gained, 52nd in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained, 43rd in Bogey Avoidance, taking him in the without Scheffler market at the slightly lower price
Corey Conners: 8500: +4000 – Fantastic course fit, second in my model this week behind Scheffler, 10,47,27,25,6,26,13,44,38,25,13,18,41,24,28 finishes in his last 15 events, 50,6,28,36,30,27 finishes here, 15th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Fairways Gained, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 6th in Par 4 Scoring 450–500 yards, 1st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 4th in GIRs Gained, 46th in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, taking him in the without Scheffler market at the slightly lower price
Sepp Straka: 8700: +4000 – Has played excellent golf this year and once again pops in my model, besides Scottie he’s second in Approach per round this season, won twice already this season, 52,7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11,MC,15,7,1,30,15 finishes in his last 18 events, 61,63,2 finishes here, 4th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 9th in Fairways Gained, 17th in Good Drives Gained, 38th in Par 4 Scoring 450–500 yards, 12th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 8th in GIRs Gained, 64th in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, taking him in the without Scheffler market at the slightly lower price
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (15%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
GIRs Gained (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Betting/DraftKings Notes
- Typically I ignore the winner without markets, but I think this tournament is a good spot for it. I think Scheffler wins, and the numbers aren’t far enough from the regular outrights to ignore them. So I am going with the winner without Scheffler markets and trying to double up on the outright winners for slightly more risk.
Bets
Outrights
4u Scottie Scheffler (+317)
Outrights (without Scottie Scheffler)
.5u Viktor Hovland (+2500)
.5u Collin Morikawa (+2550)
.4u Sepp Straka (+3000)
.4u Corey Conners (+3300)
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