The Top 50 golfers in the PGA Tour standings head to Baltimore this week for the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club, with the Top 30 advancing to the Tour Championship at East Lake next week!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7601 yards, Tom Fazio design, since 2021 the course has been lengthened and changed to a Par 70 from a Par 72 and the greens were re-contoured and had a sub air system added to them, one of the longest courses on tour, six Par 4s from 450-500 yards, three Par 4s from 350-400 yards, both Par 5s are long but reachable on good drives, medium width fairways, bluegrass and rye rough will be four inches (was around three inches in 2021) but isn’t too penal in areas that most golfers will miss, tall fescue if golfers miss wildly, water in play on five holes, course favors right handed golfers who fade the ball, 68 bunkers all over the course, small multi-tiered and undulated bentgrass greens
Tournament Notes
- Second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the Top 30 in the FedEx Cup Standings advancing to East Lake next week for the Tour Championship
- This event has been played at a variety of courses over the years
- No cut event
- In 50,000 simulations, 100% of golfers currently ranked 1-20 advanced to East Lake and 99.95% ranked 21-23 advanced, really only leaving seven spots up for grabs to move on to the Tour Championship next week (as per simulation from datagolf)
- Form matters in the FedEx Cup Playoffs
- The last week of the One & Done season
- This course previously hosted the 2021 BMW Championship where Patrick Cantlay won in a playoff over Bryson DeChambeau. That was the first time this course hosted a PGA Tour event
- In 2017, when this course hosted the Sr. Players, longer hitters excelled here with Scott McCarron (-18) who won the event finishing 3rd for the season in driving distance and Brandt Jobe who finished T2 finishing 4th in driving distance for the year and every T5 finisher was T25 in driving distance for the year
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Opportunities Gained
Field
49 golfers – the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings (besides Sepp Straka)
Defending Champion (Castle Pines): Keegan Bradley (-12)
Runner Up Last Year (Castle Pines): Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns, Adam Scott (-11)
2021 Champion (Caves Valley): Patrick Cantlay (-27 in a playoff)
One and Done: Sam Burns
One and Done Considerations: Who cares, doesn’t matter anymore
Players
Ludvig Aberg: 10200: +2200 – The perfect fit for the course since he crushes it off the tee and is a good putter on long courses, first time playing at this course, 9,23,8,36,MC,13,16,MC,60,54,7,MC,MC,22,1,42,5 finishes on tour this season, 37th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 5th in Driving Distance, 17th in Good Drives Gained, 6th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 45th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained, his price is close enough in the without Scheffler and McIlroy market that I’ll take that instead of the standard outright
Sam Burns: 9300: +4800 – Maps out nicely for this course and has been solid T2G recently, finished 8th here in 2021, 28,61,45,47,17,7,2,12,19,30,5,13,46 finishes in his last 13 events, 26th in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 9th in Driving Distance, 43rd in Good Drives Gained, 1st in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 28th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 28th in Opportunities Gained, 17th in Birdie+ Gained
Ben Griffin: 9100: +4000 – Playing spectacular golf this year and won already this season at the Charles Schwab with a ton of very good finishes, first time playing at this course, 9,11,MC,MC,13,14,10,2,1,8,46,MC,40,18,MC,MC,45,4,4 finishes in his last 19 events, 11th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 10th in Driving Distance, 31st in Good Drives Gained, 18th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 19th in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 33rd in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained
Chris Gotterup: 8500: +5000 – One of the top golfers off the tee this season in every facet, playing great golf this season and won in Scotland last month, first time playing at this course, 54,10,3,1,21,26,23,MC,28,15,MC,18 finishes in his last twelve events, 33rd in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 2nd in Driving Distance, 24th in Good Drives Gained, 5th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 9th in SG: ARG, 42nd in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained
Kurt Kitayama: 7600: +4500 – Pops in my model this week, just finally won a few weeks ago (which I considered yet of course didn’t bet) at the 3M Open, first time playing at this course, 9,31,1,5,51,MC,22,MC,5,MC,39,MC,33 finishes in his last 13 events, 9th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 3rd in Driving Distance, 46th in Good Drives Gained, 14th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 26th in SG: ARG, 43rd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Birdie+ Gained, his price is close enough in the without Scheffler and McIlroy market that I’ll take that instead of the standard outright
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (10%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I simplified my model a bit from 2021
- I like Scottie and Rory a lot this week, but don’t think their odds are worth betting in this small of a field
Bets
Outrights
.3u Ben Griffin (+4000)
.3u Sam Burns (+4800)
.3u Chris Gotterup (+5000)
Outrights without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy
.7u Ludvig Aberg (+1600)
.4u Kurt Kitayama (+3331)
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