The PGA Tour season concludes with the Tour Championship at East Lake this week and gone are the starting strokes, so the winner will go on to win the FedEx Cup. Let’s end the year with a win!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7490 yards, the course was lengthened a bit this year, Donald Ross designed course with Reese Jones redesign (1994), all three Par 5’s are reachable but if the prevailing winds shift (usually the wind is to the golfer’s back) but the 18th hole will be tougher to hit by shorter hitters, all four Par 3s are difficult with three of them being over 200 yards (the other is 195 yards), four of the Par 4s are over 450 yards and five of them are between 400-450 yards, fairly narrow tree lined fairways, Zoysia grass fairways that are a new type of Zoysia that plays a bit firmer than past years, large bunkers in play at the landing zones, 78 bunkers, water in play on eight holes, rough is thick and penal (less than 50% of approach shots from the rough hit the green), toughest fairways to hit on tour (much harder than tour average, 56% vs. 62%), average driving distance longer than tour average (299 vs. 284), very fast Bermuda greens (12.5 on the stimpmeter), firmness all depends on weather conditions, wide variety of large multi-tiered greens with a lot of slope and smaller greens with a lot of back to front slope, need to hit certain spots on greens for realistic birdie chances, the contours on some greens were changed on some holes a few years ago, greenside bunkers in play on most holes with a majority of them guarding the very front of the greens, lot of prevailing winds here
Tournament Notes
- Final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour season
- The starting strokes format is now gone – the winner of this tournament wins the FedEx Cup
- Since 2012, the average finish of golfers that finish T3 here in the prior three playoff events is 26th (before last year when the format of the playoffs was changed from 125/70/30 to 70/50/30), so current form matters, almost 60% of which had 0 T5s in those three playoff events.
- Some non-elite players pop here
Key Stats
SG: Approach, GIR Gained, Par 4 Scoring
Corollary Courses
Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – Donald Ross design with some crossover success especially on players that aren’t long off the tee
Field
Top 30 golfers in FedEx Cup standings
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-30, -20 without starting strokes)
Runner Up Last Year: Sahith Theegala (-24, -21 without starting strokes)
Lowest score relative to Par last year: Collin Morikawa (-22)
Players
Tommy Fleetwood: 9900: +1400 – I think this season ends with another close call or finally a win for Tommy for the first time, playing incredible golf including several “almost wins”, 20,6,46,16,11 finishes here (including old starting strokes format), 4,3,16,34,2,MC,16,4,41,4,7,21,62,16,14,11,5,22,20,5 finishes in his last 20 events FORM, 11th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 4th in Fairways Gained, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 5th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 13th in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 4th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 17th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in GIRs Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking the exacta with him finishing second to Scheffler
Russell Henley: 9600: +2000 – Pops in my model and has been excellent T2G and on approach this season, 15,17,10,2,10,5,MC,46,8,MC,30,1,6,39,5,10,30,4,22,30,5,48,7 finishes in his last 23 events, 4,14,3,12 finishes here (including old starting strokes format), 8th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 2nd in Fairways Gained, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 12th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 3rd in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in GIRs Gained, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking the exacta with him finishing second to Scheffler
Viktor Hovland: 9400: +2800 – Has had success in the past in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, been fantastic on approach and T2G this year (hasn’t lost strokes on approach since the Sentry), won earlier this season at the Valspar, former winner here in 2023 (he also tied for best 72 hole score) with 12,1,15,5,20 finishes here (including old starting strokes format), 7,32, 63,11,3,25,28,54,13,21,1 finishes in his last eleven events, 2nd in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 11th in Fairways Gained, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 11th in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 22nd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in GIRs Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 24th in Bogey Avoidance,, also taking the exacta with him finishing second to Scheffler
Sam Burns: 8500: +2800 – Playing well T2G and has an outside shot at making the Ryder Cup team, 12,9,24,18 finishes here (including old starting strokes format), 4,28,61,45,47,17,7,2,12,19,30,5,13,46 finishes in his last 14 events, 14th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 10th in Fairways Gained, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 7th in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 16th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 20th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in GIRs Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained, 15th in Bogey Avoidance
JJ Spaun: 8100: +2500 – Major winner at the US Open and has three second place finishes this year including losing in a playoff at the FedEx St. Jude two weeks ago and to Rory at THE PLAYERS in a Monday finish, first time playing this event, 23,2,23,MC,14,1,MC,6,37,17,42,50,MC,2,31,2,34,33,15,29,3 finishes in his last 21 events, 13th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 9th in Fairways Gained, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 8th in Par 4 Scoring: 450–500 yards, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring: 200–225 yards, 20th in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in GIRs Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, 23rd in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
GIRs Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 24 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- With only 30 golfers in the field, there will be a ton of duplicate lineups in DFS, so you have to really differentiate your lineups leaving money on the table and doing contrarian stacks
- I hit the double winner on this tournament in 2023 hitting Hovland, who won both with and without starting strokes
- Scottie Scheffler is probably winning this tournament but you can’t even consider him at +150, so look at the odds without Scottie for other golfers or look at “exactas” with Scottie winning and your pick coming in second place
- Big card for me this week because of how I’m structuring it, but it’s the last week of the season, fuck it. Let’s win!
Bets
Outrights (without Scheffler)
1u Tommy Fleetwood (+1000)
.8u Russell Henley (+1400)
.6u JJ Spaun (+1800)
.5u Viktor Hovland (+2000)
.5u Sam Burns (+2000)
Exactas
.4u Scottie Scheffler/Tommy Fleetwood (+3360)
.3u Scottie Scheffler/Russell Henley (+4000)
.2u Scottie Scheffler/Viktor Hovland (+5000)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 