Golf’s back with the first event of the PGA Tour fall swing season, with a great field featuring the USA Ryder Cup team for the Procore Championship at Silverado Country Club in Napa.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7166 yards, most golfers should reach all the Par 5s in two, birdiefest especially if the course softens up, seven of the ten Par 4s are 400-453 yards, two of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, tree lined tight fairways are hilly with a lot of roll and there are bunkers guarding the landing areas, driving accuracy is lower here than tour average (~47% vs. 62%), 61 bunkers, water in play on two holes, two cuts of rough which is not very penal with the first cut of rough being minuscule and easy to hit out of, resort course so the Kentucky bluegrass rough won’t get higher than 2.5 inches, there are several doglegs and missing on the wrong side of the fairway could be tougher to work around, large trees throughout the course are sporadic and not bunched together but they’re very tall and towering, firm average sized bentgrass with POA greens, slightly elevated greens with some slope and heavy undulation, green side bunkers guarding the front of most greens with some tightly mowed runoff areas
Tournament Notes
- Formerly called the Safeway Open and Fortinet Championship
- This course has hosted this event since 2015
- Putting is completely insignificant here
- A lot of the Korn Ferry Tour grads are in the field for the first time this week
- Seven of the last ten winners have been good ball strikers who typically are lousy putters (Max Homa in 2022 was pretty good on both)
- 16-18 are three of the five easiest holes on the course so we can see some interesting finishes here
- Typically the field for this event is far weaker, but the entire USA Ryder Cup team (besides Bryson obviously, and Xander also isn’t playing) are playing it as a warm up for the Ryder Cup in a couple weeks
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 100-125 yards (19.5%), 200+ yards (19%), 125-150 yards (18.2%)
Field
146 golfers – Really solid field for the swing season since the entire USA Ryder Cup team (beside Bryson and Xander) is in the field
Defending Champion: Patton Kizzire (-20)
Runner Up Last Year: David Lipsky (-15)
Players
Russell Henley: 10000: +1600 – Second in my model this week behind Scheffler, won earlier this season at Arnold Palmer and has been fantastic all season (especially T2G and on approach), 2,4,3,16,34,2,MC,16,4,41,4,7,21,62,16,14,11,5,22,20,5 finishes in his last 21 events, MC,MC,41 finishes here (2018, 2016, 2015), 5th in Approach, 73rd in SG: OTT, 129th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 48th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 24th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 9th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 83rd in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained
Akshay Bhatia: 8700: +3500 – Hasn’t been playing great with awful putting but I feel like he could pop here, has been inside the Top 30 in every event since The Open despite losing strokes putting in six of his last eight events, putts well on POA greens, 13,26,6,WD,25,30,26,54,MC,16,22,MC,46,42,42,MC,3,MC,9,9 finishes in his last 20 events, MC,9,MC finishes here (2023, 2020, 2019), 3rd in Approach, 75th in SG: OTT, 100th in Driving Distance, 70th in Good Drives Gained, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 17th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 20th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 124th in SG: ARG, 69th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained
Sami Valimaki: 8400: +11100 – Pops as a longer shot in my model, has never played this event, 34,MC,60,MC,19,MC,MC,39,18,12,4,36,69,48,34,MC,15 finishes in his last 17 events, 6th in Approach, 99th in SG: OTT, 11th in Driving Distance, 41st in Good Drives Gained, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 88th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 30th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 29th in Proximity 200+ yards, 59th in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 48th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Proximity 100-125 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds (including Korn Ferry Tour stats)
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- There will be a lot of football money in play this week and ownership will be heavier concentrated, so there’s a lot of good ways to differentiate from the field
- I really considered just betting Scheffler since he probably blows away this field and wins by a touchdown, but the +230 is just too low for me to bet. Instead, I’m betting my other guys in the non-Scheffler market
- Small card for me this week since I think Scottie probably wins and I’m not getting a great read on this tournament because the field is way stronger than it usually is
Bets
Outrights (without Scheffler)
1u Russell Henley (+1320)
.5u Akshay Bhatia (+2800)
.3u Sami Valimaki (+7500)
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