Following the Ryder Cup last week, this week the PGA Tour returns with a normal swing season event down in Mississippi, the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7461 yards, seven Par 4s are under 450 yards, strokes gained off the tee plays a significant factor here and different golfers will strategically play them in several ways, slightly above average width tree lined fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, trees aren’t too dense and penal, much lower driving accuracy here vs. tour average (54% vs. 62%), higher GIR % here vs. tour average (69% vs. 66%), birdie rate on the Par 5s is in the bottom 15 of courses on tour each year so they aren’t as easy as on other courses, the 15th hole is a drivable Par 4, Bermuda rough is only around 2 inches so shouldn’t be too hard to hit out of but could have some tough lies, 56 bunkers, water in play on five holes, above average sized elevated Bermuda greens with a bit of slope and undulation, guarded by bunkers, water and runoff areas, greens are pretty receptive
Tournament Notes
- Prior to 2019, this used to be an alternative event played on the week of a major. In 2019, it moved to a full PGA event in the fall swing season
- This course have hosted this tournament since 2015
- Golfers with a big range of talents have won here and plenty of long shots have won here
- Three of the last nine winners here were tour rookies
- Six of the last ten winners got their first PGA win here
- Only two winners here were outside of the Top 10 for the week in GIR
- Six of the last nine winners were T20 in putts per green in regulation for the week
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.9%), 125-150 yards (19.2%)
Field
132 golfers – terrible field strength, typical swing season event
Defending Champion: Kevin Yu (-23 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Beau Hossler (-23)
Players
Akshay Bhatia: 10100: +2000 – Maps out great for the course (obviously why he’s the favorite) and he’s in good form right now with 11,26,6,WD,25,30,26,54,MC,16,22 finishes in his last eleven events, 43 and MC finishes here (2023, 2019), 1st in Approach, 55th in SG: OTT, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 17th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 111th in SG: ARG, 50th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained
Michael Thorbjornsen: 9500: +2200 – Gained on approach and OTT in five of his last six events, putts best on Bermuda, finished 8th here in his only time here last year, playing solid golf lately with 13,38,MC,21,4,41,54,33,MC,39 finishes in his last ten events, 24th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 52nd in Par 4 Scoring, 62nd in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 54th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 82nd in SG: ARG, 52nd in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained
Emiliano Grillo: 9300: +4000 – Has gained on approach in nine of his last eleven events and off the tee in 13 of his last 15 events, 11,MC,5,39,35,39 finishes here, 4,50,44,22,2,73,19,24,16,MC,17,47,22 finishes in his last 13 events, 5th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 34th in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 55th in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity 125–150 yards, 52nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 80th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 36th in Birdie+ Gained
Rico Hoey: 9000: +3500 – Has been fantastic OTT and has gained on approach in his last five events, 9,67,57,11,MC,36,66,MC,52,MC,11,MC,33,26,25 finishes in his last 15 events, finished 68th in his only time here last year, 13th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 30th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 40th in Par 5 Scoring, 83rd in Proximity 125–150 yards, 45th in Proximity 200+ yards, 49th in SG: ARG, 124th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained
Sami Valimaki: 7400: +6500 – Really pops in my model this week, has been inconsistent with MC,34,MC,60,MC,19,MC,MC,39,18,12,4,36 finishes in his last 13 events, finished 63rd in his only time here last year, 4th in Approach, 95th in SG: OTT, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring: 400–450 yards, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 24th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 32nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 46th in SG: ARG, 15th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 5 scoring (10%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities gained (5%)
Birdie+ gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.6u Akshay Bhatia (+2000)
.5u Michael Thorbjornsen (+2200)
.3u Rico Hoey (+3500)
.3u Emiliano Grillo (+4000)
.2u Sami Valimaki (+6500)
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