Last night didn’t go great for me on the NHL, going 1-3 to lose 5.63 units. Both games I took in regulation went to OT with both the Kings and Flames erasing multi-goal deficits to win in shootouts. We’re back baby! Tonight we have the first huge 14 game slate of the season, let’s chip away!
As evidenced by last night’s games, I’m sticking with half unit plays for at least the first month of the season. Way too much variability this early in the year.
I also don’t get why the NHL has 14 games tonight but a day off tomorrow this early in the year, especially before the NBA has started, so scheduling in these arenas should be pretty open. Worst scheduling department in sports.
Another note – for the most part on these huge slates, I’m going to keep my write-ups short this season for a lot of games, especially ones I’m not betting, I can’t spend hours writing these.
Sabres vs. Rangers (7:00)
Not a great game here and I know I’m biased from 14 years straight of my favorite team missing the playoffs, but I expect my Buffalo Sabres to finish in the bottom five of the league and then lose the lottery to miss out on the McKenna sweepstake. The Rangers looked awful in their opening night 3-0 shutout loss to the Penguins, and I don’t expect them to be great either. I’ll still take the Rangers here for half a unit. The Sabres are going to be awful. I’d lean the over, but I’m not betting it.
Bruins vs. Blackhawks (7:00)
Horrible cross conference matchup here between two of the worst teams in the league. I’d slightly lean the Blackhawks since the Bruins are in the second half of a back to back, and I’d lean the over, but I’m not touching this game.
Red Wings vs. Canadiens (7:00)
Solid matchup between two teams I see competing for a Wild Card spot all year this season. I think the Habs are the better team here, but would slightly lean Detroit on the road since Montreal’s in the second half of a back to back. I’m also interested to see how John Gibson does in between the pipes for the Red Wings. I’ll lay off this game.
Lightning vs. Senators (7:00)
Really solid game here in the Atlantic, between two teams I see absolutely making the playoffs. I do think Tampa’s the better team here, and they’re at home, so I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d very slightly lean the over, but didn’t even consider betting it with Vasilevskiy vs. Ullmark in goal.
Panthers vs. Flyers (7:00)
Pretty big mismatch here. The Panthers are the defending back to back Stanley Cup Champions and although they didn’t really impress me all that much in their banner night win against the Blackhawks, they’re still a monster of a team (even without Tkachuk and Barkov to start the year). I think the Flyers do improve a bit this year, but they still suck. I’ll take Florida in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Penguins vs. Islanders (7:00)
What a boring matchup this is in the Metro. I don’t think either of these teams are all that good. The Penguins opened their year with a 3-0 shutout win on the road against the Rangers, but I think that reflects more poorly on the Rags than positively on the Pens. I expect the Isles to improve, but I still don’t think they’re a playoff team. I’d lean the Islanders win here on the road and the under, but I’m absolutely not touching it on Day 3 of the season.
Hurricanes vs. Devils (7:30)
This should be a great game. The Hurricanes are a very solid, defensively sound team that will make the playoffs. I think the Devils are also a good team and should compete for a playoff spot, which I think they make in the pretty weak Metro Division. I like Carolina to win here at home, but not enough to lay the -175. I’d lean the under, but the best move here is laying off this game entirely.
Blues vs. Wild (8:00)
This is a fun rivalry in the Central Division. I think the Wild are the better team here and would lean they win on the road, but the Blues are a decent team that I think compete for a Wild Card spot in the West this year. I’ll lay off this game completely.
Predators vs. Blue Jackets (8:00)
Interesting cross conference matchup. The Predators on paper had a lot of hype with the additions of Stamkos and Marchessault but they were one of the worst teams in the league. Huge disappointment. The Blue Jackets were the opposite. After the tragedy of losing Johnny in the offseason, I thought Columbus was going to be the worst team in the league, but they surprised me and although they still missed the playoffs, they far exceeded my expectations, staying in the Wild Card race till the last week of the season. I’d expect both teams to improve this year. I slightly lean the Jackets win this one on the road and the over, but I’m not touching this game.
Jets vs. Stars (8:00)
I think this is easily the best game on tonight’s slate. Two fantastic Central Division teams that should both make the playoffs again. I think the Stars are the better team, but on the road, I’m not touching this game. I’d lean the under, but I’m staying off totals for the first couple weeks of the season.
Avalanche vs. Mammoth (9:00)
This game isn’t the best out of the Central. The Avalanche are going to be a fantastic team this year and could contend to win the Stanley Cup. They were impressive in their 4-1 win agains the Kings on opening night. I don’t think Utah’s too bad of a team and they improved, along with getting more experience under the belts of this young core, but I still don’t see them making playoffs this year. I like the Avs to win this one at home and I’ll take Colorado for half a unit.
Canucks vs. Flames (10:00)
Not a great Pacific Division matchup here. The Flames are in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off erasing a 3-0 deficit to win the first Battle of Alberta of the season last night in Edmonton 4-3 in a shootout. The Canucks weren’t great last year, missing the playoffs, but were significantly better than Calgary. I think Vancouver improves this year and I’ll take them for half a unit in regulation tonight at home. I’d lean the over.
Sharks vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
Last year this was one of the biggest mismatches in the league in the Pacific Division, but I do think this game is actually interesting. I think the future is bright with the young core of stars for San Jose. I don’t see them competing for a playoff spot, but they should improve and I don’t expect them to be in the basement of the league anymore like they’ve been the last several years. The Golden Knights are one of the best teams in the NHL and my pick to win the Cup again this year (what else is new). Last night, they blew a 5-3 lead halfway thought the third period, which they got to on the back of Jack Eichel’s four point night and Pavel Dorofeyev’s second period hat trick, but crumbled, losing 6-5 in a shootout to the Kings at home. I like Vegas to bounce back here from last night’s collapse and I’ll go right back to them in regulation, even on the road in the second half of a back to back for half a unit.
Kraken vs. Ducks (10:00)
Boring game to close out this huge card. Neither of these teams are great, they were both bad last year, and I don’t see enough significant improvement from them this year. I’d give a slight edge to Seattle at home, but I’m not touching this game.
Bets
.5u Rangers ML (-110)
.5u Lightning ML (-180)
.5u Panthers in regulation (-155)
.5u Avalanche ML (-185)
.5u Canucks in regulation (-140)
.5u Golden Knights in regulation (-140)
Record: 2-4 (-5.84 units)
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