This week the PGA Tour returns to Black Desert Resort in Zion, Utah for the Bank of Utah Championship. Let’s hit a winner on one of the easiest course on tour!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7350 yards, resort course that was the easiest on tour last year, course was just opened in 2023, at elevation so it should play about 5% shorter, all three Par 5s are reachable in two and two Par 4s are drivable, all four of the Par 3s are pretty short, 30+ yard wide fairways that are very easy to hit, very little rough which is just 2 inches, bunkers shouldn’t play much of a factor, water only in play on two holes, if golfers miss the fairway wildly there’s lava rock native areas with sand and brush in play that could be very difficult to get out of if you even can, very large bent grass greens without much undulation and slope with some runoff areas, weather and wind are the only true defenses of this course, should be a birdiefest again
Tournament Notes
- Last year was the first time this course hosted a PGA Tour event, the Black Desert Championship
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained
Field
128 golfers – horrendous field strength, even for a fall swing season event
Defending Champion: Matt McCarty (-23)
Runner Up Last Year: Stephan Jaeger (-20)
Players
Michael Thorbjornsen: 10000: +1600 – First in my model this week and has been very good on approach and off the tee, 3,29,13,38,MC,21,4,41,54,33,MC,39 finishes in his last twelve events, WD from this tournament last year, 3rd in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Good Drives Gained, 80th in Par 3 Scoring, 30th in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 5 Scoring, 87th in SG: ARG, 51st in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained
Kurt Kitayama: 9600: +2100 – Won this season at another easy course for the 3M Open, finished T25 here last year, 48,19,9,31,1,5,51,MC,22,MC,5,MC,39,MC,33 finishes in his last 15 events, 1st in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 74th in Good Drives Gained, 102nd in Par 3 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 37th in SG: ARG, 91st in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained
Rico Hoey: 9300: +2500 – Has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in almost every tournament he’s played this year, finished T21 here last year, very good finishes recently with 4,MC,9,67,57,11,MC,36,66,MC,52,MC,11,MC,33,26,25 finishes in his last 17 events, 7th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 12th in Good Drives Gained, 32nd in Par 3 Scoring, 36th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 5 Scoring, 51st in SG: ARG, 126th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 28th in Birdie+ Gained
Matt McCarty: 9000: +3300 – Defending champion here and has been playing pretty well, 14,43,8,68,MC,22,MC,19,MC,4,MC,MC,15,14,52,16,20 finishes in his last 17 events, 39th in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 63rd in Good Drives Gained, 26th in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in SG: ARG, 6th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 8900: +3500 – Playing well recently despite not being great off the tee, 10,6,62,20,34,13,MC,45,12,MC,16 finishes in his last eleven events, didn’t play this tournament last year, 14th in Approach, 94th in SG: OTT, 7th in Good Drives Gained, 14th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 68th in Opportunities Gained, 99th in Birdie+ Gained
Doug Ghim: 7600: +6000 – Despite not having all that great of finishes lately he’s been very good T2G, finished T25 here last year, 55,26,MC,MC,31,19,MC,MC,46,33,18 finishes in his last eleven events, 4th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 16th in Good Drives Gained, 21st in Par 3 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in SG: ARG, 121st in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 29th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (10%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (15%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.7u Michael Thorbjornsen (+1600)
.5u Kurt Kitayama (+2100)
.4u Rico Hoey (+2500)
.4u Matt McCarty (+3300)
.3u Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+3500)
.2u Doug Ghim (+6000)
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