We’re on the final week of the PGA Tour swing season, heading to Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island in Georgia for the RSM Classic. Let’s end the year with another winner this fall!
Course Breakdown
Seaside Course (Rounds 1-4)
Par 70, 7005 yards, in dry conditions most golfers should be able to reach both Par 5s in two if the wind isn’t in their face, traditional links style course where wind coming off the ocean is the biggest defense on this course, nine Par 4s between 400-450 yards, wide fairways that get more narrow as you get closer to the hole, lot of golfers will go less than driver off the tee (average driving distance ~277 yards vs. tour average ~284 yards), ~70% of fairways hit here (vs. ~62% tour average), ~74% GIR percentage which is much higher than ~66% tour average, fairly tough and thick rough but the course is so short that it isn’t too penal, 47 bunkers, water in play on 13 holes, sandy native areas, seaside vegetation, water and marshland if you miss the fairway, fairways are rolling and hilly and should play firm, large overseeded Bermuda greens, most greens are elevated with lots of slope and undulation, bunkers and thick rough guarding the greens
Plantation Course (Rounds 1-2)
Par 72, 7058 yards, redesigned a few years back and played more difficult than it used to be but is still the slightly easier course of the two, all the Par 5s are reachable in two with none being longer than 560 yards, wide tree lined fairways and way more bunkers (81) than the Seaside course, the trees should make wind less of a factor than the seaside course, fairways are relatively flat with a good amount of roll but were not overseeded this year like they have in the past, water in play on ten holes, much smaller greens than the Seaside course with more bunkers guarding them than Seaside, greens are firm with a lot of slope added with golfers forced to hit certain quadrants of the green to have a shot at birdie
Tournament Notes
- Last PGA Tour event of the 2025 calendar year
- This has been a two course rotation since 2015 with all the events prior just taking place on the Seaside course
- SEC Championship is usually played on this course
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (23.1% on Seaside Course), 125-150 yards (20.7%)
Corollary Courses
Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage), Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – seven of the last 15 winners here have a T5 or better on one of these two courses prior to their win here (Svennson, who won in 2022 had a 7th place finish at the Sony previously and Aberg in 2023 had a T10 at the RBC Heritage, McNealy previously had a 4th place finish at the RBC Heritage and finished 7th at the Sony Open)
Field
156 golfers – Horrible field strength
Last Year’s Champion: Mav McNealy (-16)
Runner Up Last Year: Luke Clanton, Nico Echavarria, Daniel Berger (-15)
Players
Michael Thorbjornsen: 10200: +2500 – Right back to him as he’s been very good on approach and off the tee, 31,37,3,29,13,38,MC,21,4,41,54,33,MC,39 finishes in his last 14 events, finished 8th in his first time here last year, 3rd in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 66th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 54th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 123rd in SG: ARG, 44th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 70th in Bogey Avoidance
Rico Hoey: 9800: +3000 – Fantastic form coming into this week of two T4s in his last three events with 22,2,4,MC,9,67,57,11,MC,36,66 finishes in his last eleven events, first time playing this event, 2nd in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 97th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 9th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 59th in SG: ARG, 147th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained, 100th in Bogey Avoidance
Chris Kirk: 8900: +3500 – First in my model this week, asn’t played in the swing season but has fantastic form coming in with 9,5,14,MC,64,2,12,MC,MC,55,42,18 finishes in his last twelve events, has success at Sony where he has four T5s and at the RBC Heritage, won here in 2013 with MC,28,MC,MC,18,MC,46,4,MC,18,4,1,64,MC,15 finishes here, 4th in Approach, 57th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 14th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 103rd in Proximity 150–175 yards, 27th in SG: ARG, 74th in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained, 50th in Birdie+ Gained, 39th in Bogey Avoidance
Davis Thompson: 8500: +5000 – Pops pretty high in my model this week, MC,21,19,11,MC,MC,18,34,25 finishes in his last nine events, 60,53,MC,MC,MC,23 finishes here, 23rd in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 62nd in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 4th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 1st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 53rd in SG: ARG, 116th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdie+ Gained, 121st in Bogey Avoidance
Matt Kuchar: 8300: +5000 – Playing pretty well and obviously has the ability to win here, 46,18,13,44,5,MC,25,53,56,32,18 finishes in his last eleven events, MC,53,MC,37,37,MC,29,MC,25,22,7,20,25 finishes here, has previously won at the Sony Open with seven T10 finishes there and has also won the RBC Heritage with six T10 finishes there, 18th in Approach, 117th in SG: OTT, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 76th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 114th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 46th in Opportunities Gained, 100th in Birdie+ Gained, 14th in Bogey Avoidance
Matt Wallace: 7700: +5500 – Hasn’t been great but pops as fifth in my model rating out highly on a bunch of key stats that I’m looking at this week, 53,MC,67,37 finishes here, MC,31,MC,10,MC,27,3,45,50,46,23,MC,22,17,26 finishes in his last 15 events, RECENT FORM, 53rd in Approach, 83rd in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 65th in Proximity 125–150 yards, 87th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 88th in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Let’s hit the winner this week to close the season!
- I bumped up my bet sizes by a bit since I’m not hitting any huge favorites and it’s the last week of the year, let’s have some fun!
Bets
Outrights
.5u Michael Thorbjornsen (+2500)
.5u Rico Hoey (+3000)
.4u Chris Kirk (+3500)
.3u Davis Thompson (+5000)
.3u Matt Kuchar (+5000)
.3u Matt Wallace (+5500)
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