Slight losing day for me on the NHL yesterday, going 2-3, losing 0.7 units. Not a huge deal. Let’s bounce back tonight on this solid seven game slate!
Lightning vs. Flyers (7:00)
This should be a pretty solid game, but I still think it’s a mismatch in the East. The Lightning are 12-7-2 on the season after their lousy start, and coming off a 5-3 win in DC on Saturday, they’re on a three game win streak with just three losses in their last 14 games. They’ve been very good on both ends of the ice. The Flyers are definitely exceeding expectations with an 11-6-3 record with three wins in their last four games, and just one regulation loss in their last eight, coming off a 6-3 win at home against the Devils on Saturday. Their offense has struggled, but the defense has been good. I like Tampa to win this game at home and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the under with two good defenses, and an offense for Philly that isn’t great, but don’t like it enough to bet on.
Devils vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Interesting matchup in the East here. The Devils are struggling a bit lately without Jack Hughes in the lineup, on a three game losing streak following a 6-3 loss in Philly on Saturday, dropping to a still pretty good 13-7-1 record. The Red Wings lead the tight Atlantic Division with a 13-8-1 record. Coming off a 4-3 overtime win at home against the Blue Jackets on Saturday, they’ve gone 4-1-1 in their last six games. I think Jersey’s the better team here and I’d lean they win at home, and I’d slightly lean the over, but don’t see any edge in betting either, so I’ll lay off this game entirely.
Rangers vs. Blues (7:00)
Terrible cross conference matchup between two struggling teams in this one. The Rangers have been very good defensively and Igor Sheskerkin’s one of the best goalies in the league, but their offense is horrible. They’re on a four game losing streak, coming off a 3-2 loss in Utah on Saturday, dropping to 10-11-2 on the season. They’re horrendous at home, where they’re just 1-7-1. The Blues are one of the worst teams in the league, struggling on both ends of the ice with a 7-9-6 record, ending a four game losing streak with a 2-1 win on Long Island on Saturday afternoon. I still like the Rangers to get a win at home here, and I’ll take them for half a unit, mainly as a fade on St. Louis. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Not the best matchup here in the Metro Division, but I’d expect this to be a pretty fun game tonight. The Capitals have played a bit better after quite the slump for them. They’re 11-9-2, coming off a 5-3 loss to the Lightning on Saturday that ended a three game win streak. Statistically they’ve been pretty good this season on both ends of the ice. The Blue Jackets on the other hand have struggled on both ends of the ice, but have a similar record at 11-8-3 with a 4-1-3 record in their last eight games, coming off a 4-3 overtime loss in Detroit on Saturday. The Caps won the first game between these teams 5-1 on the road and I’d lean they win again, but I don’t like it enough to bet on. I’d lean the over, but at 6.5, I don’t see an edge in betting it, so I’ll lay off this game completely.
Predators vs. Panthers (8:00)
I know the Panthers haven’t had a great start to their season with all the injuries they’ve had, but this is still a pretty big mismatch with how bad the Predators have been. Nashville, coming off two shutout losses in a row have just one win in their last eight games, playing decent but still losing 3-0 to the Avs on Saturday night. This team’s been so bad on both ends of the ice. The Panthers have seemingly figured things out recently. They’re coming off a 6-3 loss at home on Saturday to the Oilers in a rematch of the last two years’ Cup Finals, but have four wins in their last six games to improve to 11-9-1 on the season. I like Florida to win here at home and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over with it at 5.5, but don’t like it enough to bet on.
Mammoth vs. Golden Knights (9:00)
Interesting game here in the West. The Mammoth had a great start to the season, but have struggled as of late coming into tonight with an 11-8-3 record, ending a four game losing streak on Saturday with a 3-2 win at home against the Rangers, just their second win in their last nine games. The Golden Knights have been good on both ends of the ice at 10-4-7, but they can’t escape their overtime issues. They’re on a six game point streak, coming off a 4-3 overtime loss in Anaheim on Saturday where Mitch Marner had a brutal turnover in OT that led right to the game winner. He was the last leg I needed for two big player point prop parlays to hit, and the turnover was so fucking bad he should’ve been credited for an assist on it. Once a Leaf, always a Leafs. That fucker. Vegas won the first game between these teams 4-1 on the road last Thursday. I like them to win again and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it. I’ll go back to my play prop parlays here too, with a unit on Marner in this bounce back spot, Jack Eichel, and Clayton Keller, with another half unit adding Nick Schmaltz.
Kings vs. Senators (9:00)
Pretty fun cross conference game to end the night. The first game between these teams a couple weeks ago was a grind, with the Kings winning a 1-0 shutout on the road. LA comes into this game on a three game losing streak, coming off a 2-1 overtime loss on Friday night to the Bruins, dropping to 10-6-6 on the season. They’ve played well defensively, but have struggled offensively. The Sens have played the opposite, struggling on the back end, but playing well offensively. They’re 11-6-4, picking up at least a point in all of their last ten games besides that 1-0 loss to LA. The Kings are the better team here, and I’d lean they win at home to complete the season sweep, but didn’t even consider betting it. I’d also lean the under, but not enough to bet it with the 5.5 juiced to -120. I thought about a point parlay of Stutzle and Kempe, but even that at +115 I don’t think there’s any value there, especially when I think it’s gonna be a low scoring game, so I’ll just stay off it.
Bets
.5u Lightning ML (-175)
.5u Rangers ML (-142)
.5u Panthers ML (-135)
.5u Golden Knights ML (-120)
1u parlay: Eichel/Marner/Keller 1+ point each (+170)
.5u parlay: Eichel/Marner/Keller/Schmaltz 1+ point each (+230)
Record: 145-137-1 (-18.92 units)
Note: I noticed last night that I incorrectly graded my parlay on Sid and Geno to each get a point on Saturday against the Kraken as a loss, which was actually a .6u win on .5u bet. I’ve since corrected that on my record and fixed the 1.1u difference in my shitty total.
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