Few dollar loss, pretty much breaking even on the NHL last night going 2-2. Let’s head into the three day Christmas break with a winning night on tonight’s big 13 game slate!
I think I might start adding quick looks back at my picks from the previous night as well on these blogs to post-analyze them a bit. Last night I went 2-2, but read the board pretty well. Lightning, easy winner as expected. Good bet for a unit. Flyers took a bit to get going, but better team came out on top for my win there with a strong third period from Philly. Good bet, good sizing at a half unit. Ducks was a good half unit bet even though it lost. They dominated the Kraken in that game, Grubauer just had a fantastic night in goal and Anaheim got some bad bounces. Glad I stayed off player props in that game too, although Troy Terry had some nice looks. Then Kings was a bet I should’ve just stayed off. They’ve played like garbage lately and they’re so boring to watch. Should’ve stayed off that game entirely. My lean on the under would’ve been a better half unit bet than LA’s ML. Oh well, break even day.
Maple Leafs vs. Penguins (4:00)
I love that the NHL is getting the night started early with a 4:00 puck drop, but this is a pretty lousy game in the East to get it going. The Leafs have been horrible, mainly defensively, on a there game losing streak with just one win (that needed two goals in eight seconds late to beat the shitty Blackhawks) in their last six games, dropping to 15-115-5 on the season. The Penguins started the year hot, but have come crashing down. They ended an eight game losing streak on Sunday with a 4-3 shootout win at home against the Habs in the second half of a back to back home and home. They’re now 15-11-9 on the season. Toronto won both previous games between these teams, winning 4-3 at home and 7-2 on the road. I’d slightly lean they complete the season sweep here at home, but I’m not betting it. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit at + money, and I’ll parlay Sidney Crosby and William Nylander to each get a point for half a unit.
Red Wings vs. Stars (6:30)
Pretty solid cross conference matchup here with a bit of an earlier start than usual. The Red Wings are playing very well. Coming off a 3-2 overtime win at home against the Capitals on Sunday afternoon to complete the sweep on a home and home back to back, Detroit’s won seven of their last eight games to improve to an Atlantic Division leading 21-13-3 on the season. The Stars are one of the best teams in the NHL with a 25-7-5 record on the year, only trailing the Avalanche. They’re playing elite hockey on both ends of the ice, on a four game win streak coming off blowing out the Leafs 5-1 on Sunday. Dallas is the way better team here, and I like them to win on the road. I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also take a longer shot and parlay Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Lucas Raymond, and Alex DeBrincat to each get a point for half a unit. Additionally, I’ll take Rantanen to have over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Senators vs. Sabres (7:00)
Fun Atlantic Division matchup to get the 7:00 slate started. The Senators are playing well, improving to 18-13-4, on a four game win streak coming off crushing the Bruins 6-2 on the road in Boston on Sunday. My Sabres have found a way to turn their season around after a horrendous start. They’re 3-0 in the Jarmo era and on their first six game win streak since 2022, coming off a 3-1 win in Jersey on Sunday night to improve to 17-14-4. When these teams met the first time this year in the second week of the season, Buffalo played great on their way to a big 8-4 win at home. I would still lean the Sens win here at home to end our win streak, but don’t like it enough to bet against the Sabres. I’d also lean the over, but not enough to bet it with how these teams are trending lately. I do like a few player props in this game though. I’ll take Tage Thompson to get over half a point for half a unit, and I’ll parlay Tage, Tim Stutzle, and Brady Tkachuk to each get a point for half a unit.
Capitals vs. Rangers (7:00)
This Metro Division matchup isn’t great. The Capitals are a solid team with a 19-12-5 record, but they’re struggling a bit as of late. They’re coming off a 3-2 overtime loss in Detroit on Sunday in the second half of a home and home in a back to back against them and have just one win in their last six games. The Rangers have been terrible with an 18-16-4 record, coming off a 2-1 loss in Nashville on Sunday, but they’ve been far better on the road, with a 13-6-1 record outside of MSG. The first week of the season when these teams played the first time in New York, the Caps shut out the Rags with a 1-0 win on the road. Both of these teams have been very good defensively, but Washington has been far better offensively, so I like them to win here at home and I’ll take them for half a unit. I also like the under, which I’ll take for half a unit as well.
Bruins vs. Canadiens (7:00)
This should be a fun Atlantic Division matchup. The Bruins are far exceeding expectations this year with a 20-16-1 record, but come into tonight on a three game losing streak off a 6-2 loss at home to the Senators on Sunday. The Habs are playing pretty well, improving to 19-12-5 on the season with a 4-1-2 record in their last seven games, coming off a 4-3 shootout loss in the second half of a back to back home and home in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The first game between these teams last month in Montreal was close, with the B’s getting a 3-2 win on the road. These teams match up very closely, pretty much identical statistically on both ends of the ice. I’d very slightly lean Boston wins at home tonight, but don’t like it enough to bet on. I’d also slightly lean the over, but both teams have trended under lately, so I’ll stay off it. I do like a player prop parlay though and I’ll take David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie, Cole Caufield, and Nick Suzuki to each get a point for half a unit.
Islanders vs. Devils (7:00)
Pretty boring Metro Division matchup. The Islanders are exceeding expectations with their 19-13-4 record, but haven’t played great lately, on a three game losing streak coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Sabres on Saturday. The Devils are coming off a loss to the Sabres too, losing 3-1 at home on Sunday. They’re 20-15-1 on the season, with four wins in their last seven games, and they got their best player, Jack Hughes, back in the lineup on Sunday and he lit the lamp for their only goal. The first game between these two teams went to overtime last month, with the Isles winning 3-2 on the road. I’d lean Jersey answers back with a win here on the road, but not enough to bet it. Both of these teams have been bad offensively, but the Islanders have been solid on the back end, and the Devils aren’t far behind them. I like the under in this matchup, and I’ll take it for half a unit at a decent +114 price. I looked at a few player props here, mainly on Jack Hughes, but don’t think any are worth betting.
Hurricanes vs. Panthers (7:00)
Great Eastern Conference matchup here. In the first game between these teams on Friday, the Panthers erased a 3-0 third period deficit to come back and win 4-3 in a shootout at home. The bigger thing for Carolina that came out of that game though is that they lost both Seth Jarvis and Jacob Slavin, who are now both week to week now after injuries in that game. Big blow to them losing two of their best players. The Hurricanes lead the Eastern Conference with a 22-10-3 record, but come into tonight off two road losses, falling 6-4 on the road in Tampa on Saturday. The Panthers are playing really well right now, with a four game win streak surprisingly coming to an end on Saturday as they lost 6-2 at home to the Blues. They’re now 19-14-2 on the year with seven wins in their last nine games. The side on this game’s a complete toss up to me. I’d lean the Canes win at home slightly, but I think they may struggle without Jarvis and Slavin. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet it. There are a few player props I like in this game though. With Jarvis out, I think Sebastian Aho has to take a step up here, and I’ll parlay him with Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart to each get a point for half a unit. I especially like Marchy in this game. I’ll take him to get a point for a unit, and I’ll take him to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Wild vs. Predators (8:00)
Huge mismatch in the Central Division. Minnesota’s one of the top three teams in the NHL with a 22-10-5 record. They had a seven game win streak come to an end on Sunday, losing 5-1 to the Avalanche at home, which was a bit expected seeing that Colorado’s far and away in a league of their own this season. The Wild have been fantastic though on both ends of the ice, so I’m pretty much just throwing that game out. The Predators on the other hand have been horrendous on both ends of the ice, but they’re playing far better lately with nine wins in their last 13 games to improve to 15-16-4 on the year. The first game between these teams in the first week of November went to overtime, with the Wild winning 3-2 at home. I like them to win again here at home, and I’ll take them for a unit. I’ll also take their puck line for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not quite enough to bet it. Additionally I’ll parlay Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Quinn Hughes to each get a point for a unit.
Blackhawks vs. Flyers (9:00)
This is a pretty bad and boring cross conference game. The Blackhawks have been awful and they’re still without their top player Connor Bedard. Coming off a 6-4 loss in Ottawa on Saturday, they’re on a five game losing streak, crashing down to 13-16-6 on the season with just three wins in their last 16 games. The Flyers are playing pretty well, mainly defensively, in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 5-2 win at home against the Canucks last night (winner for me) to improve to 18-10-7 on the season. They have just two wins in their last seven games, but have picked up at least a point in 18 of their last 23 games. Even in the second half of a back to back on the road, I like Philly to win here and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Avalanche vs. Mammoth (9:00)
Every game that the Avalanche play is a huge mismatch, since they’re far and away the best team in the NHL with a 26-2-7 record, and they’re pretty much perfect at home, going 14-0-2 in Denver. This team’s elite to a level that I don’t think I’ve ever seen, easily the best team in the league on both ends of the ice. They’re on a five game win streak and eight game point streak, coming off putting on a show against another great team, beating the Wild 5-1 on the road on Sunday. The Mammoth aren’t bad and have played better lately, improving to 18-17-3 on the season with four wins in their last six games, coming off a 4-3 win at home against the Jets on Sunday. Both previous game between these Central Division teams were close, both decided by a goal as they split those games back in October, with the Avs winning 2-1 at home and the Mammoth answering back with a 4-3 overtime win at home. I love Colorado to win here at home and I’ll take them in regulation for 1.5 units. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also go back to my old reliable here and parlay MacKinnon, Makar, and Necas to each get a point for a unit, and I’ll take the Nate Dogg to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Oilers vs. Flames (9:00)
The Battle of Alberta’s the biggest rivalry in the NHL, and it’s always fun. The first game between these teams on opening night of the season went to a shootout in Edmonton, with the Flames getting a 4-3 win on the road. These teams have both struggled through the season, but they’re both playing way better as of late. The Oilers are 18-13-6 on the year with a 7-2-1 record in their last ten games, coming off a 4-3 win at home against Vegas on Sunday. Their defense stinks, but offensively they’re a most lead by two of the best players in the NHL. The Flames are coming off a 6-3 win against the Golden Knights on Saturday and after their awful start to the year have now won seven of their last nine games to improve to 15-17-4. They’ve played the complete opposite style of hockey than their provincial rivals, playing really well defensively with a pretty putrid offense. I like the Oilers to answer back with a win here at home and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also take Connor McDavid to have over 1.5 points for half a unit. I considered adding Draisaitl to that, but it barely moves the price parlaying them, so I’ll just stick with McJesus.
Golden Knights vs. Sharks (10:00)
Not a great rivalry matchup in the Pacific Division, but this could be a fun game. The Golden Knights are two points back from the Duck for the division lead with a 16-8-10 record and without Jack Eichel in the lineup, they come into tonight on a three game losing streak after losing 4-3 on the road in Edmonton on Sunday. The Sharks have been much better than expected with a 17-16-3 record, on the back of a fantastic sophomore season for Macklin Celebrini, the only player in the NHL besides McDavid and MacKinnon to have over 50 points. They’re coming off two losses in a row, falling 4-2 at home to the Kraken on Saturday. Vegas won both previous games between these teams, winning 4-3 in overtime on the road in the first week of the season and then 4-3 at home in November. I’d expect the Knights to win again here at home, but don’t think they’re worth betting at -205, and I don’t trust them to buy it down to regulation only without Eichel. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet that either at 6.5. I do like some player props though. I’ll parlay Celebrini with Mark Stone to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll take Celebrini to have over 1.5 points for half a unit. I considered taking Stone to have over 1.5 points too, but don’t think it’s worth it at less than +150.
Kings vs. Kraken (10:00)
Such a boring Pacific Division matchup to end the night. The Kings are a complete snooze fest. They’re 15-11-9, with a great defense but a horrendous offense. They’re in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a 3-1 loss at home to the Blue Jackets, a game I should’ve bet the under instead of LA’s moneyline in. They have just one win in their last six games. The Kraken are in the second half of a back to back as well, coming off two wins in a row, getting outplayed through the whole game but beating the Ducks 3-1 last night on a great night in goal for Grubauer. They’re just 14-14-6 on the season, playing incredibly boring hockey. Seattle won the first game between these teams 3-2 in overtime at home a few weeks ago. I’d expect the Kings to win tonight, but the -238 price is ridiculous, so I’ll stay off it. I love the under in this game though, since both teams have been good defensively, especially LA, but horrible offensively. I’ll take it for a unit.
Bets
.5u Maple Leafs/Penguins over 6.5 (+105)
.5u parlay: Sidney Crosby/William Nylander 1+ point each (+121)
1u Stars ML (-125)
.5u parlay: Rantanen/Robertson/Johnston/Raymond/DeBrincat 1+ point each (+382)
.5u Mikko Rantanen over 1.5 points (+185)
.5u Tage Thompson over 0.5 point (-168)
.5u parlay: Thompson/Stutzle/Tkachuk 1+ point each (+181)
.5u Capitals ML (-155)
.5u Capitals/Rangers under 5.5 (-118)
.5u parlay: Pastrnak/Geekie/Suzuki/Caufield 1+ point each (+224)
.5u Devils/Islanders under 5.5 (+114)
.5u parlay: Aho/Reinhart/Marchand 1+ point each (+210)
1u Brad Marchand over 0.5 point (-162)
.5u Brad Marchand over 1.5 points (+310)
1u Wild ML (-185)
.5u Wild -1.5 (+136)
1u parlay: Kaprizov/Boldy/Hughes 1+ pt each (-105)
.5u Flyers ML (-120)
1.5u Avalanche in regulation (-165)
1u parlay: MacKinnon/Makar/Necas 1+ point each (-130)
.5u Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points (-130)
.5u Oilers ML (-155)
.5u Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-120)
.5u parlay: Celebrini/Stone 1+ point each (-160)
.5u Macklin Celebrini over 1.5 points (+150)
1u Kings/Kraken under 5.5 (-122)
Record: 295-326-1 (-47.32 units)
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