Hope everyone had a great Christmas! I went 12-14 on Tuesday’s huge NHL slate, losing 2.15 units. Tonight we have a big 13 game slate coming out of the nice three day break. Let’s crush it!
Today’s probably the biggest variability you’re gonna see in the NHL all season, so I’m treading lightly. These guys have been all over the world the last three days after this break, and probably boozing. The NHLPA doesn’t allow any travel on December 26th, so morning skates were a joke today and road teams all came in today. Won’t be great.
I’m also keeping the write-ups short since a lot of the usual analysis on games won’t mean much.
Islanders vs. Rangers (6:00)
I think the Isles are the slightly better team here in the Battle of New York but I’m not touching it with the Rangers close to home, yet on the road. I’d slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet it, so I’ll stay off it.
Sabres vs. Bruins (7:00)
The energy in Buffalo tonight for this game should be pretty electric, with a sold out arena to support this team on a fantastic seven game win streak. The Bruins have played well though this season, far exceeding my expectations so I am a bit worried, but I’ll back my home town boys for half a unit. I’ll also parlay David Pastrnak and Tage Thompson to each get a point for half a unit. I considered adding Morgan Geekie to that, but I’ll play it safer here. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators (7:00)
Not the greatest Battle of Ontario here. I’d lean the Senators win on the road and the over, but not enough to bet either. I considered some player props here, but don’t think any of them are worth parlaying together, and they’re all too expensive to take individually.
Panthers vs. Lightning (7:00)
The Battle of Florida should be electric tonight with both of these teams playing very well right now. I’d slightly lean the Panthers win at home, but not enough to bet it. I’d also lean the over slightly, but not enough to bet that either. I will parlay Brad Marchand and Nikita Kucherov to each get a point for half a unit.
Devils vs. Capitals (7:00)
This should be a solid game, but both of these teams are struggling a bit right now. I’d lean the Capitals win on the road, but not enough to bet it. I considered the under, but don’t like that enough to bet it either, so I’ll lay off this game.
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Solid Eastern Conference game here between the two division leaders. If Carolina didn’t have the key injuries of Jarvis and Slavin, I’d be all over them at home here, but the -175 is too expensive for it. I’d actually see some value in Detroit, but not enough to bet them. I’d lean the over, but I’ll stay off that as well. I do like several player props in this game on Sebastian Aho, Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat. I’ll stay off DeBrincat and Larkin, but I’ll parlay Aho and Raymond to each get a point for half a unit.
Jets vs. Wild (7:00)
Not the greatest Central Division matchup here. Even with the travel, I like Minnesota to win here on the road and I’ll take them for half a unit. The total’s a complete toss up to me, so I’ll stay off it. I’ll also parlay Kyle Connor/Mark Scheifele, Matt Boldy, and Kirill Kaprizov to each get a point. I considered adding Quinn Hughes to that, but I’ll just roll with the four leg.
Blues vs. Predators (8:00)
Awful game here between two bad teams. I’d lean the Predators, who are actually playing quite well lately win on the road, and I’d slightly lean the over, but I’m not touching this game whatsoever.
Stars vs. Blackhawks (8:00)
Big mismatch here in the Central. The Stars are a top notch team this season, easily one of the two second best teams in the NHL (along with the Wild) behind the Avalanche. The Blackhawks have been awful, and they’re still without Bedard, so I love Dallas to win here at home. I’ll take the Stars puck line for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, and Wyatt Johnston to each get a point with the Stars moneyline for a unit. I considered taking Rantanen to have over 1.5 points, but I don’t think its worth it at just +130.
Kings vs. Ducks (9:00)
Interesting California matchup with these teams playing completely different styles of hockey, with a great defense and awful offense for the Kings, and a very good offense but brutal defense for the Ducks. I’d lean Anaheim wins here on the road, but not enough to bet them. The total’s a complete toss up, so I’ll lay off it obviously. I considered a few player props, but don’t think any are worth betting coming out of the break on these young Ducks stars, so I will stay off this game entirely.
Oilers vs. Flames (10:00)
The Battle of Alberta’s the biggest rivalry in the NHL and after poor starts to the season for both of these teams, they’re both playing quite well right now. I like the Oilers to win here on the road and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also take Connor McDavid to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Canucks vs. Sharks (10:00)
Terrible matchup here in the West between two pretty lousy teams. The Canucks have been hot lately while the Sharks are on a three game losing streak, but I’d lean the Sharks win here on the road. I don’t like it enough to bet on though. I’d lean the over as well, but not enough to take that. Macklin Celebrini’s having a fantastic year, and I’ll take him to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche (10:00)
Great game to close out the night out West. The Avalanche are the best team I’ve ever seen, and they’re an auto-bet for me every night. I’ll take Colorado for a unit, despite thinking Vegas is also very good, and they should get Jack Eichel back in the lineup tonight after he missed a handful of games, which they missed him greatly in. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5. I like several player props in this game too. I’ll parlay Mark Stone, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll take MacKinnon to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Bets
.5u Sabres ML (-135)
.5u parlay: David Pastrnak/Tage Thompson 1+ point each (-105)
.5u parlay: Nikita Kucherov/Brad Marchand 1+ point each (+101)
.5u parlay: Sebastian Aho/Lucas Raymond 1+ point each (+120)
.5u Wild ML (-115)
.5u parlay: Connor/Scheifele/Kaprizov/Boldy 1+ point each (+211)
1u Stars -1.5 (-130)
1u parlay: Stars ML & Rantanen/Robertson/Johnston 1+ point each (+118)
.5u Oilers ML (-135)
.5u Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-125)
.5u Macklin Celebrini over 1.5 points (+145)
1u Avalanche ML (-155)
.5u parlay: Stone/MacKinnon/Makar/Necas 1+ point each (+170)
.5u Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points (-105)
Record: 307-340-1 (-49.47 units)
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