Tonight the College Football Playoff semifinals kicks off at State Farm Stadium in Arizona with #10 ranked Miami taking on #6 ranked Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. I picked against both of these teams in the second round and was pretty shocked with the result of both of those games to get these teams each a game away from competing in the National Championship. This should be a great game!
Ole Miss had a solid season, coming into tonight as the #6 ranked team with a 13-1 record, their only loss coming 43-35 in Athens in the middle of the season. They avenged that loss to the Bulldogs on New Years Day, erasing a 21-12 halftime deficit to beat #3 ranked Georgia 39-24 in the Sugar Bowl with Trinidad Chambliss throwing for 362 yards and two touchdowns and Kewan Lacy running for 98 yards and two touchdowns, after an easy 41-10 win in the first round against Tulane, who shouldn’t have even been in the playoff. There’s also some added motivation this season for the Rebels, with head coach Lane Kiffin leaving Ole Miss before the Playoff to become the next head coach of LSU.
The Rebels were good on both sides of the ball this year, playing the tenth toughest schedule in the nation. Their offense ranked tenth in college football, scoring an average of 37.6 points per game. Trinidad Chambliss was a hell of a story this year, coming from playing D2 to throw for an average of 315.9 yards per game and 1.8 touchdowns. Kewan Lacy and the Ole Miss run game was great too, averaging 180.3 yards and 2.7 touchdowns per game on the ground. Defensively, Ole Miss was decent, allowing an average of 20.4 points per game, ranking 29th in the country. They gave up an average of 194 yards and 1.1 touchdowns passing, and 146.1 yards and 1.3 touchdowns rushing per game.
Almost missing the Playoff, and getting in over Notre Dame since they beat the Irish 27-24 in Week 1, Miami ranked tenth in the nation this year, going 12-2 in the very weak ACC, with both of their losses in conference in the middle of the season, losing to Louisville at home and SMU in overtime on the road. Their strength of schedule was the sixth toughest in the country. I had a lot of preseason hype for this team, especially in the shitty ACC, but I lost some faith in them in October when they took those two losses as the rest of the conference fell apart. They’ve impressed me defensively these playoffs though. In the first round, they grinded out a defensive battle, going to Texas A&M and winning 10-3 on the road at Kyle Field, a very tough place to play. Then on New Year’s Eve, they rang in 2026 with the most impressive win in this college football season, knocking off Ohio State with a 24-14 victory in the Cotton Bowl, taking a 14-0 lead into halftime with a 72 yard Pick 6 by Keionte Scott on Julian Sayin that completely changed that game.
The Hurricanes have been solid on both sides of the ball, with an elite defense this year. Their offense scored an average of 31.6 points per game, ranking 30th in the country. I’ve knocked Carson Beck, both when he was at Georgia and this year at the U, but he averaged 253.6 yards passing and 2.1 touchdowns per game in the air, with a 74.4% completion percentage. On the ground, Mark Fletcher Jr. and the Miami rushing attack averaged 152 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game. Defensively, Miami’s been elite, giving up just 13.1 points per game on average, the fourth fewest in the nation, allowing an average of 201.1 yards and less than a touchdown per game in the air, and only 84 yards rushing and 0.6 on the ground per game.
This is a tough game to predict, with an edge defensively for Miami and an edge offensively for Ole Miss, making a really interesting matchup. I do think the defensive play, along with the turmoil of the Ole Miss program gets the Hurricanes a win here, and I’ll buy the hook and take the U to cover a field goal for half a unit. With how elite the Miami defense has been, I like the under on this game, with the total coming in higher than I expected at 53.5, which I’ll take for half a unit. I looked a few player props in this game too. I’ll take the best wide receiver in this game, Malachi Toney to find the end zone for half a unit. I’ll also parlay both running backs to score, Mark Fletcher Jr. and Kewan Lacy for half a unit.
This should be an awesome game. All about the U!
Bets
.5u Miami -3 (-118)
.5u Miami/Ole Miss under 53.5 (-106)
.5u Malachi Toney anytime TD (+105)
.5u parlay: Mark Fletcher Jr./Kewan Lacy anytime TD each (+121)
Record: 216-225-12 (-32.19 units)
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