I went 4-4 on the NHL last night for a very slight 0.29 unit profit. Tonight we have a big twelve game slate going up against the College Football Playoff Semifinals…nice scheduling after a garbage five game slate yesterday. Let’s make it three winning nights in a row!
Rangers vs. Sabres (7:00)
Decent New York State matchup in the East to start off the night. The Rangers are struggling big time, falling to 20-18-6 on the season with just one win in their last five games, coming off a 3-2 overtime loss at home to the Mammoth on Monday. They’ve been horrendous at home, with just a 5-10-4 record at MSG this year. New York’s been terrible offensively, but they’ve been very solid on the back end. That’ll take a hit though with Igor Shesterkin, one of the best goaltenders in the world going to the IR, along with Adam Fox, their best defenseman going to LT-IR. The Sabres have been fantastic recently, one of the hottest teams in hockey, right in the Wild Card mix with a 22-15-4 record with eleven wins in their last twelve games. We bounced back from the ten game win streak ending on Saturday in Columbus with a big 5-3 win at home to the Canucks on Tuesday, where Buffalo controlled most of the game and then held off a late rally by Vancouver. In the first game between these teams in the first game to start the season, the Rangers shut us out 4-0 in Buffalo (damn has my tone changed on this team from my first blog of the year recapping their game on opening night, and I LOVE it). I like the Sabres to bounce back here on the road and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay Tage Thompson and Artemi Panarin to each get a point for half a unit. Let’s Go Buffalo!
Bruins vs. Flames (7:00)
This isn’t the best cross conference game by any means. These teams are both struggling a bit as of late, and just played a week and a half ago in Calgary, with the Flames winning 2-1 in overtime at home. After their unexpected hot start to the year, the Bruins have since fallen to 22-19-2 on the season with just two wins in their last nine games, coming home from a long road trip tonight after losing 7-4 in Calgary on Tuesday. The Flames started the season horribly, but looked like they figured something out lately, going on a run of nine wins in twelve games, but come into tonight now on a three game losing streak, in the second half of a back to back after a 4-1 loss in Montreal last night. I’d lean Boston wins tonight at home, but don’t like it enough to bet them. I do like the under in this game though at 6.5, which I’ll parlay with David Pastrnak to get a point for half a unit.
Canadiens vs. Panthers (7:00)
This should be a real fun game in the Atlantic Division. The Habs are in the second half of a back to back tonight, coming off a dominant 4-1 win at home against the Flames last night. Montreal’s played well this season, with a 24-13-6 record and a 7-1-2 record in their last ten games. Their young offense has been very good, but their defense is struggling this year. The Panthers are struggling with a ton of injuries, and come into tonight 22-17-3. They have just one (very impressive) win in their last four games, losing 4-1 in Toronto on Tuesday after a 2-1 win at home against the Avalanche on Sunday. The first game between these teams a little over a week ago in Florida went to overtime with the Canadiens winning 3-2. I’d slightly lean they win again here at home, but I’m not touching it. I’d also slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll parlay Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Sam Reinhart to each get a point for a unit as my only play on this game.
Red Wings vs. Canucks (7:00)
Big mismatch in this cross conference game. The Red Wings have been great this year, despite not being all that impressive statistically on either end of the ice, a point behind Tampa for the Atlantic Division lead with a 25-15-4 record. They’ve won eleven of their last 16 games, bouncing back from losing both games of a home and home against the Penguins with a 5-3 win in Ottawa on Monday night. The Canucks meanwhile are one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 16-21-5 record. They’re on a four game losing streak, making a late push after getting shut out most of the game, but falling short of their comeback effort to lose 5-3 in Buffalo on Tuesday. This team’s horrible on both ends of the ice. In the first game in Vancouver between these teams last month, Detroit shut out the Canucks 4-0 on the road. I like them to complete the season sweep with an easy win at home tonight and I’ll take them for a unit, at a cheaper price than I expected. I’d lean the over slightly, but not enough to bet it. I considered a few different options here on player props, but I’ll go with a half unit parlay on Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond to each get a point (the other thing I really considered was Raymond on his own at -175, but think that’s too pricey. I though about taking Patty Kane to get his 500th goal, but that’s not worth it either, and Alex DeBrincat was the other player I thought about taking the point for).
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Interesting matchup in the East. The Flyers are playing great, in third place in the Metro Division with a 22-12-7 record. Although on the season their offense (outside of Trevor Zegras) hasn’t been all that impressive, they’ve been great on the back end. Philly’s coming off two big 5-2 wins in a row, beating the Ducks at home on Tuesday after a win on the road in Edmonton on Saturday, and they’ve won five of their last seven games. The Leafs have figured things out lately, with a 5-0-2 record in their last seven games to improve to 20-15-7 on the season. Their offense has been good, but their defense and goaltending sucks. Toronto won the first game between these teams 5-2 on the road in November. I’d lean the Flyers answer back with a win at home here, but not enough to bet what’s essentially a coin flip to me. I’d slightly lean the under, but didn’t even consider betting that. I do like some player props though and I’ll parlay Zegras and Auston Matthews to each get a point for half a unit.
Penguins vs. Devils (7:00)
This is a pretty bad game in the Metro Division. The Penguins have turned it around big time after an eight game losing streak, coming into tonight on a five game win streak to improve to 20-12-9 on the season. Sidney Crosby will get a huge boost tonight, with Evgeni Malkin likely back in the lineup. The Devils have been horrible lately, with just six wins in their last 19 games, falling to 22-19-2 on the season, getting laughed out of Long Island with a 9-0 blowout loss to the Islanders on Tuesday. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice. The first game between these teams, Jersey won 2-1 at home in the shootout. I like the Pens to answer back here pretty easily. I’ll parlay Pittsburgh with Sid to get a point for a unit. Additionally, I’ll take Sid to get over 1.5 points for half a unit, and I’ll parlay him to get a point with Geno to get a point in his return for half a unit (I considered adding Jack Hughes to that, but I’m not touching any of the Devils shitty offense). I’d lean the over very slightly, but didn’t even consider the total.
Hurricanes vs. Ducks (7:00)
Big mismatch in this cross conference game. The Hurricanes are the best team in the East with a 26-14-3 record, coming off a 6-3 win at home against the Stars on Tuesday (huge triple winner in that game for me), winning their last two games after going on a slump of two wins in their prior eight games. The Ducks started the season great, but have come crashing down, with a horrible defense that their solid young offense can’t outscore the problems of. Coming off a 5-2 loss in Philly on Tuesday, they’re on a seven game losing streak with just two wins in their last 13 games. Back in October, the Canes won the first game between these teams 4-1 on the road. I like a handful of plays on this one. I like Carolina to win pretty easily at home and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’ll also take their team total over 3.5 for half a unit. I love the over in this game too, and I’ll take that for a unit as well. Additionally, I’ll parlay Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho to each get a point for half a unit.
Predators vs. Islanders (8:00)
Even up to a month ago (and especially preseason) I would’ve thought this was a horrible cross conference game, but both of these teams are playing well lately and it makes it a pretty fun game. The Predators after their terrible start to the year have improved to 19-19-4 on the season, with 13 wins in their last 20 games, coming off a 6-2 loss in Edmonton on Tuesday. Statistically they’ve struggled on both ends of the ice. The Islanders completely embarrassed the Devils on Tuesday, blowing them out with a 9-0 shutout win at home for their fifth win in their last seven games, improving to 24-15-4 on the season and second place in the Metro Division. Their offense hasn’t been great, but their defense has been very good this year. I think the better defense leads to a win for them on the road in Smashville tonight, but not enough to bet them, even as underdogs. I do like the over in this game though at 5.5, which I’ll take for half. unit.
Jets vs. Oilers (8:00)
Terrible matchup in the West in what going into the year should have been a fantastic game. The Jets have been awful, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. They’re in dead last in the NHL, struggling on both ends of the ice, coming into tonight on a ten game losing streak with just three wins in their last 22 games to fall to 15-21-5 on the year after a 4-3 overtime loss at home to the Golden Knights on Tuesday. The Oilers are tied with Vegas at the top of the Pacific Division, despite their bad defensive play, with a 21-16-6 record, coming off a 6-2 win at home against the Preds on Tuesday. Edmonton won both previous games between these teams last month, 6-2 at home and 3-1 on the road. I like them to complete the season sweep here and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I also like some player props. I’ll parlay McDavid, Draisaitl, Connor, and Scheifele to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll take McDavid to get over 1.5 points for a unit.
Avalanche vs. Senators (9:00)
Huge mismatch for this cross conference tilt. The Avalanche are far and away the best team in the NHL this season (and maybe in history), leading the way with a 31-4-7 record, but come into tonight on their first two game losing streak since September, losing both games of their Florida road trip, 2-1 against the Panthers on Sunday and 4-2 against the Lightning on Tuesday. Colorado’s elite on both ends of the ice, leading the league both offensively and defensively. The Senators have struggled this season. They’re 20-17-5, in the second half of a back to back tonight after a 3-1 loss in Utah last night. Their offense has been fine, but defensively they’re pretty bad. I love the Avs to bounce back here at home and I’ll take them in regulation for 1.5 units. I like the over as well, which I’ll take for half a unit. Back on my usual player props here as well. I’ll take Nathan MacKinnon to score for half a unit, get over 1.5 points for a unit, and for half a unit I’ll parlay him with Makar, Necas, and Tim Stutzle to each get a point.
Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets (10:00)
Not the best cross conference matchup to get into the late games. The Golden Knights haven’t been great, despite leading the weak Pacific Division with an 18-11-12 record. Every overtime game for them feels like a loss, but they’re coming off an OT win, beating the Jets 4-3 on Tuesday to end a five game losing streak, just their second win in their last ten games. The Blue Jackets aren’t great either. They’re 18-17-7, coming off two losses in a row after a 5-2 loss in San Jose on Tuesday. Vegas won the first game between these teams 3-2 in Columbus in December. I’d lean they win again tonight at home, but not enough to lay the -142. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to touch that either. I won’t be staying off this matchup entirely though, and I’ll parlay Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone to each get a point for half a unit.
Kraken vs. Wild (10:00)
Big mismatch out West to end the night, but how these teams are coming into tonight actually makes it interesting. After looking awful, the Kraken come into tonight on a four game win streak, coming off a 7-4 win at home against the Bruins on Tuesday, with an 8-0-1 record in their last night games to improve to 20-14-7 on the season. Their offense, which has been bad all year, seems to have figured something out lately, scoring at least four goals in each of their last four games, while their defense and goaltending has still been solid. The Wild are a top tier team at 25-11-8 on the season, yet come into tonight with just one win in their last four games after consecutive losses in LA, 4-2 on Monday after a 5-4 shootout loss on Saturday. Minnesota won their first game in Seattle last month easily, 4-1 on the road. I like the Wild to bounce back here and I’ll take them for a unit. I like the over as well at 5.5, which I’ll take for half a unit. I’ll also parlay Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy to each get a point for half a unit.
Bets
1u Sabres ML (-125)
.5u parlay: Tage Thompson/Artemi Panarin 1+ point each (+116)
.5u parlay: Bruins/Flames under 6.5/David Pastrnak over 0.5 point (+158)
1u parlay: Cole Caufield/Nick Suzuki/Sam Reinhart 1+ point each (+145)
1u Red Wings ML (-155)
.5u parlay: Dylan Larkin/Lucas Raymond 1+ point each (+114)
.5u parlay: Trevor Zegras/Auston Matthews 1+ point each (+108)
1u parlay: Penguins ML/Sidney Crosby over 0.5 point (+120)
.5u parlay: Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin 1+ point each (+116)
.5u Sidney Crosby over 1.5 points (+200)
1u Hurricanes in regulation (-135)
.5u Hurricanes TT over 3.5 (-160)
1u Hurricanes/Ducks over 6.5 (-142)
.5u parlay: Seth Jarvis/Sebastian Aho 1+ point each (-110)
.5u Predators/Islanders over 5.5 (-120)
1u Oilers ML (-115)
.5u parlay: McDavid/Draisaitl/Connor/Scheifele 1+ point each (+149)
1u Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-120)
1.5u Avalanche in regulation (-170)
.5u Avalanche/Senators over 6.5 (-130)
.5u Nathan MacKinnon over 0.5 goal (-125)
1u Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points (-162)
.5u parlay: MacKinnon/Makar/Necas/Stutzle 1+ point each (+144)
.5u parlay: Marchenko/Werenski/Eichel/Stone 1+ point each (+224)
1u Wild ML (-155)
.5u Wild/Kraken over 5.5 (-132)
.5u parlay: Kirill Kaprizov/Matt Boldy 1+ point each (-111)
Record: 400-427-1 (-44.94 units)
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