After last night’s all time classic in the Fiesta Bowl, Miami awaits the winner of tonight’s fantastic semifinal matchup in the College Football Playoff to see if they’ll be facing #1 ranked Indiana or #5 ranked Oregon in the National Championship next week. This should be an incredible Big Ten battle at Mercedes Benz in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl.
These teams played in Week 6 in Oregon, with the Hoosiers giving the Ducks their only loss of the season, going on the road and beating them 30-20 in a game that was tied up with 6:23 remaining in regulation. Dante Moore threw two interceptions in that game,
Curt Cignetti in his second year as head coach at Indiana has completely turned around the most losing program in college football history into a complete juggernaut, making the playoff in both of his first two years and now they’re the best team in the country. They’ve had a perfect 14-0 season so far, grinding out a 13-10 win against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship to get to #1 and then after getting a bye in the first round, absolutely dominated Alabama in the Rose Bowl, crushing the Tide 38-3 on New Year’s Day.
The Hoosiers have been elite this year, at the top of college football on both sides of the ball. They had the third-highest scoring offense in the nation, scoring an average of 41.6 points per game. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman, throwing for 3172 yards, an average of 247.4 yards and 2.9 touchdowns in the air per game and giving up just six interceptions all year. Their run game was fantastic, with the combo of Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby rushing for an average of 220.7 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game. Their defense was even better, ranking second in the country as they allowed an average of just 10.3 points per game. They gave up an average of just 178.9 yards passing and 0.5 touchdowns in the air per game, and only 73.7 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on the ground.
Oregon had a great year as well, only losing once, at home to Indiana on their way to 13-1 this year. They dominated both playoff games they were in, crushing James Madison 51-34 in the first round at home, in a game that was never close, getting out to a 48-13 lead before JMU covered the spread in garbage time. The Ducks were perfect in the Orange Bowl to start off New Year’s Day, knocking off #4 ranked Texas Tech with a 23-0 shutout victory.
The Ducks were also a top ten team this year on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they averaged 38 points per game, the ninth-most in the nation. Dante Moore had a good year at quarterback, throwing for an average of 251.4 yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game, with nine interceptions. Led by Noah Whittingham and Jordon Davidson, who won’t be playing tonight since he’s out with a broken collarbone, Oregon was good on the ground as well, averaging 206.1 rushing yards and 2.4 touchdowns on the ground per game. The Ducks defense was really solid, allowing an average of just 15.1 yards per game, the sixth-fewest in college football. On average, they gave up 156.6 yards and a touchdown passing per game, and 110.8 yards and 0.8 touchdowns rushing.
I think Indiana’s far and away the best team in the nation this year, and I fully expect them both to win this game and then go on to beat the Hurricanes in a home game National Championship next Monday. I don’t love the hook on the field goal, and rather than buying it down to 3, I’ll lay the -174 on their moneyline for 1.5 units. I’d slightly lean the over in this matchup, but not enough to bet it, with the line at 48.5 pretty much right where I thought it’d be, so I’ll stay off the total. I like a few player props on this game on the Hoosiers side. I’ll take Fernando Mendoza to throw for over 208.5 yards for half a unit to keep padding his Heisman season. His favorite target all year has been Elijah Sarratt, who had the highlight of the year with his walk off, toe tap touchdown against Penn State. I like him to find the end zone tonight, which I’ll take for half a unit. I considered betting both him and Omar Cooper Jr.’s receiving props, but don’t like either enough to take it.
Should be a hell of a rematch tonight to go to the natty. Go Hoosiers!
Bets
1.5u Indiana ML (-174)
.5u Fernando Mendoza over 208.5 passing yards (-114)
.5u Elijah Sarratt anytime TD (+110)
Record: 218-227-12 (-32.2 units)
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