The PGA Tour season begins a week late this year, as a solid field heads down to Hawaii for the Sony Open at Wai’alae Country Club! Let’s have a great golf year!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7044 yards, resort course, winning score should be around -20, lowest driving accuracy course on tour (~54% vs. tour average ~63%) but isn’t really a huge factor here at all historically with plenty of golfers winning and having success from the rough, guys could still go real low with crappy driving accuracy because the fairways are very narrow but the rough is not penal, slightly higher than average driving distance here with a lot of rollout, both Par 5s can easily be eagle’d by all which are the two easiest Par 5s on tour, fourth most eagles here of every course on tour despite only having two Par 5s, all Par 3s are under 200 yards, off the tee golfers will see tree lined fairways that are firm, flat and fast, rough isn’t very high but could get thick and gnarly to hit out of with bad lies and the last few years they raised the rough from 2.5 to 3 inches, 83 bunkers on a few fairways and water is in play on five holes, average to above average sized firm and flat Bermuda greens that are well protected by deep bunkers and the rough around the greens is a lot tougher than off the fairways, wind could play a big factor but as long as the wind is down its a birdiefest
Tournament Notes
- First event of the 2026 PGA Tour season
- Typically this is the second tournament of the year, but the Sentry was cancelled due to course conditions this season
- This could be the final year of the Hawaii swing to start the season, with Sony no longer being a sponsor after this year and the Sentry not having been played this year, and the schedule likely being shrunk in the future
- Course history here correlates with yearly success here only second-most on tour behind Augusta, guys that play well here continue to succeed
- Only four winners here since 2010 have been in their 20s, so experience on Tour matters
- 13 of the last 15 winners here had a T15 in one of their last three starts before this tourney (Nick Taylor last year and Si Woo Kim, who had a T15 in his last four starts before he won were the outliers)
- Prior to Cam Smith in 2020 and Kevin Na in 2021, the last 9 winners prior to that had a T6 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney. In 2024, Grayson had a T7 in that span.
- 27 of the last 30 winners have played in at least two previous Sony Opens
- 22 of the last 23 winners here have had at least one previous PGA Tour win
- 9 of the last 14 winners ranked inside the top-50 on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting in the season leading up to their win
- In 2022, Si Woo Kim led the field by over a stroke in approach and led the field in SG: T2G
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained, Good Drives Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (25.4%), 175-200 yards (23.1%)
Corollary Courses
- El Camaleon Golf Club (Mayakoba Golf Classic) – two of the last eight winners when Mayakoba was still a course on the PGA Tour, Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire won these two tournaments back to back, Mayakoba in the fall and then Sony the same season
- Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (The Sentry) – 10 of the past 14 winners (18 of last 27) played at the Sentry the week before (Cam Smith, Russell Henley, Grayson Murray and Si Woo Kim were the ones who weren’t, Henley was also the 1st player since the 1970 to win their first time there), but their results at the Sentry seem to not matter at all (Na and Kuchar sucked at Sentry the years they won here). This also might have been elevated since elite players used to play the Sentry since it was the Tournament of Champions prior to 2023.
Field
120 golfers – Pretty solid field to start the year and it’s stronger than usual
Last Year’s Champion: Nick Taylor (-16 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Nico Echavarria (-16)
One and Done: Hideki Matsuyama
One and Done Considerations: Hideki Matsuyama, Ben Griffin, Russell Henley
Players
Ben Griffin: 10100: +2000 – Won last season at the Charles Schwab and was on fire both at the end of the season, played great in his fall swing season start finishing 2nd at the Procore in his last start, 2,12,9,11,MC,MC,13,14,10,2,1,8 finishes in his last twelve event, 45,30,12 finishes here, great course fit coming in second in my model, 5th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 58th in Good Drives, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 38th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 32nd in Proximity 175–200 yards, 21st in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 49th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained
Hideki Matsuyama: 9700: +1800 – Fantastic course fit and comes in first in my model coming off his win at the Hero World Challenge (which isn’t a real tournament), former winner here in 2022 with 16,30,48,1,19,12,51,27,78,MC,MC,MC finishes here, 1,20,26,17,19,16,13,30,42,38,36,MC,17,21 finishes in his last 14 events and won last year in Hawaii at the Sentry, 12th in Approach, 87th in SG: OTT, 36th in Good Drives, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 3rd in Proximity 150–175 yards, 3rd in Proximity 175–200 yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 46th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdie+ Gained
JJ Spaun: 9500: +1800 – Took his career to another level last year winning the US Open, losing in a Monday playoff at THE PLAYERS to Rory, and playing great during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, a stroke outside of the playoff here last season and has had some good results over the last few years with 3,MC,12,MC,MC,MC,47,MC finishes here, 4,6,23,2,23,MC,14,1,MC,6,37,17 finishes in his last twelve games, 3rd in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Good Drives, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 112th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 62nd in Proximity 175–200 yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 37th in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained
Corey Conners: 8600: +2800 – Lines up nicely for this course and has the talent to win, some solid history here with MC,57,12,11,12,3,39 finishes at this tournament, had a ton of top ten finishes last year 7,39,50,10,47,27,25,19,11,49,8,18,8,6,3 finishes in his last 15 events, 11th in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 11th in Good Drives, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 1st in Proximity 150–175 yards, 34th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 101st in SG: ARG, 84th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained
Daniel Berger: 7500: +6500 – He had the short game yips big time both chipping and putting last year but the rest of his game looked like it was back to the level it was before his injury and if he could figure out the putting is a good course fit here, MC,7,38,14,45,42,13 finishes here, WD,68,30,55,42,46,MC,MC,33,11,3,21,30,20,15 finishes in his last 15 events, 8th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 8th in Good Drives, 38th in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Par 4 Scoring (400–450 yards), 2nd in Proximity 150–175 yards, 58th in Proximity 175–200 yards, 119th in SG: ARG, 111th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 57th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- On DraftKings showdown slates, guys that start on the front 9 have an easier chance at getting 3+ birdie streaks, giving a slight edge
- Last year I had JJ Spaun here (cashed his each way), who finished T3, a stroke outside of the playoff
- As I’ve done over the years, my outright bets are all structure to win around 10 units, rounded up
Bets
Outfights
.6u Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
.6u JJ Spaun (+1800)
.5u Ben Griffin (+2000)
.4u Corey Conners (+2800)
.2u Daniel Berger (+6500)
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