Tonight the college football season concludes with a National Championship game down in Miami that shocked the entire college football world as the #1 Indiana Hoosiers look to conclude their perfect season, against the #10 Miami Hurricanes in a “home game” at Hard Rock Stadium.
Curt Cignetti in his second year as head coach at Indiana has completely turned around the most losing program in college football history into a complete juggernaut, making the playoff in both of his first two years and now they’re the best team in the country. They’ve had a perfect 15-0 season so far, grinding out a 13-10 win against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship to get to #1 and then after getting a bye in the first round, absolutely dominated Alabama in the Rose Bowl, crushing the Tide 38-3 on New Year’s Day. The completely dominated the Peach Bowl two weeks ago, crushing Oregon 56-22, in a pretty much perfect game from start to finish as Fernando Mendoza was 17/20 and threw for five touchdowns.
The Hoosiers have been elite this year, at the top of college football on both sides of the ball. They had the second-highest scoring offense in the nation, scoring an average of 42.6 points per game. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman, throwing for 3349 yards, an average of 242.7 yards and 3.1 touchdowns in the air per game and giving up just six interceptions all year. Their run game was fantastic, with the combo of Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby rushing for an average of 218.3 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game. Their defense was just as perfect, ranking second in the country as they allowed an average of just 11.1 points per game. They gave up an average of just 185.9 yards passing and 0.6 touchdowns in the air per game, and only 75 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on the ground.
Almost missing the Playoff, and getting in over Notre Dame since they beat the Irish 27-24 in Week 1, Miami ranked tenth in the nation this year, going 13-2 in the very weak ACC, with both of their losses in conference in the middle of the season, losing to Louisville at home and SMU in overtime on the road. Their strength of schedule was the sixth toughest in the country. I had a lot of preseason hype for this team, especially in the shitty ACC, but I lost some faith in them in October when they took those two losses as the rest of the conference fell apart. They’ve impressed me defensively these playoffs though. In the first round, they grinded out a defensive battle, going to Texas A&M and winning 10-3 on the road at Kyle Field, a very tough place to play. Then on New Year’s Eve, they rang in 2026 with the most impressive win in this college football season, knocking off Ohio State with a 24-14 victory in the Cotton Bowl, taking a 14-0 lead into halftime with a 72 yard Pick 6 by Keionte Scott on Julian Sayin that completely changed that game. The Fiesta Bowl was an all time classic last week, with Ole Miss and the Canes trading possessions and Carson Beck rushing in the game winning touchdown with 18 seconds left to win 31-27. What a fantastic game that was.
The Hurricanes have been solid on both sides of the ball, with an elite defense this year. Their offense scored an average of 31.6 points per game, ranking 30th in the country. I’ve knocked Carson Beck, both when he was at Georgia and this year at the U, but he averaged 254.6 yards passing and 2.1 touchdowns per game in the air, with a 73.3% completion percentage. On the ground, Mark Fletcher Jr. and the Miami rushing attack averaged 154.6 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game. Defensively, Miami’s been elite, giving up just 14 points per game on average, the fifth fewest in the nation, allowing an average of 206.1 yards and less than a touchdown per game in the air, and only 86.5 yards rushing and 0.7 on the ground per game.
I know Miami’s pulled off three impressive upsets in a row in these playoffs, but their Cinderella run ends here. This season for Indiana has been extremely impressive, up there for me with the Joe Burrow season at LSU in 2019 and the 2010 Auburn team with Cam Newton. I fully expect another big win here to complete their National Championship season for Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers. I think their offense continues to excel, and I don’t see a way for the Hurricanes offense to keep up. I’ll buy the hook and take Indiana to cover the touchdown here for 6 units, making it my biggest play of the year. I’d slightly lean the under in this game, but I’d expect Indiana to score enough that it gets around the 47.5, so I’ll stay off the total.
I like a few player props in this game too. I’ll take Fernando Mendoza to throw over 1.5 touchdowns, laying the -172 for a unit. I’ll also take Mendoza’s favorite target, Elijah Sarratt to go over 56.5 receiving yards and for him to score a touchdown for a unit each.
Bets
6u Indiana -7 (-115)
1u Fernando Mendoza over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-172)
1u Elijah Sarratt over 56.5 receiving yards (-114)
1u Elijah Sarratt anytime TD (-115)
Record: 220-228-12 (-26.72 units)
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