This week the PGA Tour starts the California swing with a three course rotation at PGA West for The American Express. Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
PGA West Stadium Course (All Rounds)
Par 72, 7187 yards, Pete Dye designed, highest birdie+ % from the fairway for any course on tour, toughest of the three courses but still pretty easy compared to tour average, Par 5s are much longer and harder than the other two courses (some of the most difficult to reach in two on tour) and have the lowest in hit green percentage on second shots into Par 5s on tour (~12% vs. 23% tour average), very tough Par 3s, average fairways that get narrow at the landing areas, over 90 bunkers and a lot of water and dormant grass if golfers miss wildly off the tee, water in play on seven holes, less than driver on some holes with some forced layups, lowest percentage of drives over 300 years on tour, rough is pretty easy to make it easier for the Pro-Am golfers, lowest sand save percentage of any course on tour, small greens and huge bunkers (including the huge 20 feet deep bunker on 16 that is the fifth-toughest greenside bunker on tour), overseeded POA greens
PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course (Rounds 1-3)
Par 72, 7147 yards, one of the top ten easiest courses on tour every year, all the Par 5s are reachable, average to large fairways with lots of bunkers and water, rough isn’t very thick, undulating multi-tiered large greens, overseeded POA greens, water in play on five holes, around 90 bunkers, there’s been multiple 59s shot on this course
La Quinta Country Club (Rounds 1-3)
Par 72, 7060 yards, one of the top three easiest courses on tour, tree-lined average sized fairways, 82 bunkers, water in play on seven holes, average speed greens with a little bit of trouble around them, average sized POA greens
Tournament Notes
- Formerly known as the Desert Classic, CareerBuilder Challenge and Bob Hope Classic
- Three-course rotation of this event with a 54-hole cut and the shitty Pro-Am format that makes this thing pretty much unwatchable till Sunday, since it takes forever with 6 hour rounds
- Course setup in rounds 1-3 is easier since normal people (usually a bunch of executives from PGA Tour sponsors, won’t see all the celebrities you see at Pebble) have to play with the pros with very low rough and easy pin locations
- Birdiefest, the winner of this event has never been worse than -20. To quote Jon Rahm, this is a “shit setup and a fucking putting contest”
- Longer players won’t hit drivers as often here
- A lot of long shots win this event (other than Rahm when he won in 2018 and 2023) with guys over +10000 winning much more often than expected here
- 15 of the last 17 winners here have played in at least one of the two Hawaii events the year that they won
- 11 of the last 13 winners here have played this event before the year they won
- 10 of the last 14 winners have had a T15 in one of their last seven starts prior to winning here
- 8 of the last 13 winners here played the Sony Open the week prior to winning, six of them made the cut
- The TV broadcast of this event is fucking awful, arguably worse than Pebble Beach with the Stadium Course being the only one with Shotlink and TV cameras
- Because only the Stadium Course has Shotlink data, all SG data historically is from just that course, besides scoring (birdie+, etc)
- There is a historical advantage of starting at La Quinta first but this is partially cause the best players start here since then they’re on TV at the Stadium Course on Saturday
- 80% of all Par 4s on these courses are in the 350-450 yard range
Key Stats
Approach, Good Drives, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach (Stadium Course): 150-175 yards (23%), 200+ yards (21.6%)
Field
156 golfers – Pretty solid field strength with some stars at the top of the board including Scottie Scheffler
Defending Champion: Sepp Straka (-25)
Runner Up Last Year: Justin Thomas (-23)
One and Done: Ben Griffin
One and Done Considerations: Ben Griffin, Russell Henley
Players
Ben Griffin: 10200: +2750 – Great course history with 7,9,32 finishes here the last three years, won last season at the Charles Schwab and was on fire both at the end of the season and in the fall coming off a 19th place finish at the Sony Open last week in Hawaii with 19,2,12,9,11,MC,MC,13,14,10,2,1,8 finishes in his last 13 events, 7th in Approach, 47th in SG: OTT, 78th in Good Drives, 54th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 36th in Sand Saves, 39th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 60th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdie+ Gained
Sam Burns: 9800: +2500 – Pretty solid course history here with 29,6,11,MC,6,18 finishes, 11,13,4,28,61,45,47,17,7,2,12,19,30,5,13 finishes in his last 15 events, 13th in Approach, 46th in SG: OTT, 58th in Good Drives, 136th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 11th in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 5 Scoring, 34th in Sand Saves, 104th in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 45th in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdie+ Gained, taking him without Scheffler since the odds are close enough to his outright
Russell Henley: 9600: +2500 – Won last year at the API and played great to close last year, coming off his 19th place finish at the Sony Open last week with 19,19,15,17,10,2,10,5,MC,46,8,MC,30,1,6 finishes in his last 15 events, hasn’t played this tournament since 2022 and his cours history isn’t great with 14,MC,MC,MC,MC,49,56 finishes here, 10th in Approach, 91st in SG: OTT, 6th in Good Drives, 86th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 37th in Par 3 Scoring, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 26th in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in Sand Saves, 2nd in SG: ARG, 110th in Putting, 26th in Opportunities Gained, 54th in Birdie+ Gained, taking him without Scheffler since the odds are close enough to his outright
Harry Hall: 9300: +4000 – Played great at the Sony Open last week where he finished 6th with 6,6,22,15,28,17,13,9,24,6 finishes in his last ten events, 21,MC,41,47 finishes here, 40th in Approach, 78th in SG: OTT, 89th in Good Drives, 10th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 72nd in Sand Saves, 14th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, taking him without Scheffler since the odds are close enough to his outright
Sepp Straka: 9200: +4500 – Defending champion here winning by 2 over JT with two wins (here and the Truist) and a lot of great finishes last year, 1,49,MC,4,MC finishes here, 3,17,52,7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11 finishes in his last 15 events, 4th in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 40th in Good Drives, 14th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 33rd in Par 3 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 138th in Sand Saves, 141st in SG: ARG, 47th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained, taking him without Scheffler since the odds are close enough to his outright
Akshay Bhatia: 7800: +8000 – His short game has been awful, but if he could get that going for a week he could have a lot of success as his stats line up nicely outside of the short game, 14,MC,11,26,6,WD,25,30,26,54,MC,16,22 finishes in his last 13 events, missed the cut all three years he played here (2024,2021,2020), 4th in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 40th in Good Drives, 14th in Proximity 150–175 yards, 33rd in Par 3 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 138th in Sand Saves, 141st in SG: ARG, 47th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T6 Each Way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (15%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Because of the 54 hole cut, missed cuts aren’t quite as detrimental to lineups, so being more aggressive with higher upside plays are a smart idea this week on DraftKings
- First round leaders typically will not start on the Stadium Course
- Showdown slates and some possible matchups might have some advantages based on the course golfers are on that day
- Books are offering non-Scottie markets this week, so make sure to check if there’s a few points worth giving up on those
Bets
Outrights
.5u Ben Griffin (+2750)
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+8000)
Outrights without Scheffler
.5u Russell Henley (+2000)
.5u Sam Burns (+2000)
.4u Harry Hall (+3500)
.4u Sepp Straka (+3500)
T6 Each Way
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+1600)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 