My big plays on the Lightning and Avs last night swung me to lose 2.36 units despite going 9-7 on the night. Today we have a slightly smaller nine game NHL slate for a Saturday. Bounce back time!
Islanders vs. Sabres (1:00)
Pretty solid matinee to get the day started in the Eastern Conference between these two playoff teams that no one expected to be in this season. The Islanders have been a bit inconsistent, playing very good defensively with an underwhelming offense. They’re in third place in the Metro Division with a 27-18-5 record, coming off a 4-1 loss in Seattle on Wednesday. My Sabres are in the first Wild Card in the East with a 28-17-5 record, and we’ve been one of the hottest teams in the NHL. Coming off a huge 4-2 win in Montreal on Thursday, we’ve gone 17-3-1 in our last 21 games. The first game between these teams in Buffalo went to a shootout, with the Sabres winning 3-2 at home. I like us to win again and I’ll take Buffalo for half a unit. I’d lean the under slightly, but not enough to bet it.
Predators vs. Mammoth (1:30)
Kind of a boring matchup in the Central Division, but this should be a pretty solid game with both teams playing decent hockey right now. The Preds are on the outside looking in on a Wild Card spot with a 24-22-4 record. They’re playing much better than earlier in the season though, coming off a 5-3 win at home against the Senators on Thursday they have 18 wins in their last 29 games. The Mammoth come into today on a four game win streak, coming back from an early 3-1 deficit on Wednesday night at home against the Flyers to win 5-4, with Clayton Keller forcing overtime with 35 seconds left in regulation, then winning it in OT. They’re now 26-20-4 on the year, in the first Wild Card in the West with a 7-0-1 record in their last eight games. These teams split their first two games both winning on the road, with Utah winning 3-2 in Smashville in the OT in the first week of the season, and the Preds answering back with a 4-3 win in Utah late in December. I’d slightly lean the Mammoth win here on the road, but not enough to bet it. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet that either, so I’ll lay off this game entirely.
Bruins vs. Canadiens (7:00)
Really good matchup here in the Atlantic Division between two teams in playoff spots and playing to stay there and gain positioning in the standings. The Bruins are coming off a 4-3 win at home against the Golden Knights on Thursday, where they scored three goals in the span of 54 seconds in the first period, then held off the Knights’ comeback effort. They’re in the second Wild Card in the East. improving to 29-20-2 on the year with nine wins in their last eleven games. The Habs have been pretty solid this season, in third place in the division with a 28-16-7 record, two points ahead of the Sabres, who they outplayed on Thursday night, but lost to 4-2 at home. These teams split their first two games, both winning on the road, with a 3-2 Bruins win in Montreal in November, and the Canadiens answering back with a 6-2 win in Boston last month. I think the Habs are the better team here, but I’d slightly lean the B’s get the win here at home. I don’t like it enough to bet on though. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit. I like several player props in this game. I’ll parlay David Pastrnak, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield to each get a point for a unit. Then I’ll take Pasta and Suzuki to each get over 1.5 points, both individually and parlayed together for a half unit each.
Senators vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
This isn’t a great game in the East, and in my opinion quite the mismatch, but the price on it is way better than I expected. The Senators are the worst team in the Atlantic division with a 23-20-7 record. They’re coming off a 5-3 loss in Nashville on Thursday and have just three wins in their last ten games. The Hurricanes have been very good, leading the Metro Division with a 31-15-5 record and they’ve played great lately, with a 7-1-2 record in their last ten games. They had a three game win streak come to an end on Thursday with a surprising 4-3 shootout loss at home to the Blackhawks. I don’t understand why the price on this game is so low, but I’ll jump right on it and take the Canes for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Andrea Svechnikov, Tim Stutzle, and Brady Tkachuk to each get a point for half a unit.
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning (7:00)
This Eastern Conference matchup isn’t great, but it should be a pretty fun game with the way the Jackets are playing despite it being a pretty big mismatch. Since firing Dean Evason, the Blue Jackets have played very well, with five wins in their last six games, coming off a 1-0 shutout win at home against the Stars on Thursday. They’re still second last in the Metro with a 23-20-7 record, struggling on both ends of the ice this year. The Lightning are a fantastic team, leading the Atlantic Division with a 32-13-4 record. They’re in the second half of a back to back tonight, completely fucking me last night as they poured it on, but needed a shootout to beat the Blackhawks 2-1 on the road last night (I had them heavily in regulation, and Kucherov to get over 1.5 points, and he just had one). They’re the hottest teams in hockey right now, on a three game win streak with a 14-0-1 record in their last 15 games. Columbus won the first game between these teams 3-2 at home back in October. I love Tampa to get the win here, even in the second half of a back to back, and I’ll take them for 1.5 units. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko, Brandon Hagel, and Nikita Kucherov to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll take Kuch to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Jets vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Pretty huge cross conference mismatch, but the price on this game completely makes zero sense to me. The Jets are one of the worst teams in the league with a 20-23-7 record, which is shocking considering that they won the President’s Trophy last year. After a four game win streak, they’ve since won just one of their last four games, coming off a 2-1 shootout loss at home to Panthers on Thursday. The Red Wings have been very good this year, in second place in the Atlantic Division, a point behind Tampa with a 31-16-5 record. They had a three game win streak end on Thursday in a fantastic game, losing 4-3 in overtime to the Wild on Thursday. On New Year’s Eve in Detroit, the Red Wings won 2-1 at home. I don’t get how they’re underdogs here on the road, but I’ll jump right on them and take Detroit for a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, and Dylan Larkin to each get a point for half a unit. The books are still pricing Raymond way lower than they should, and I’ll take him individually to get a point for a unit.
Blues vs. Kings (8:00)
This is such a lousy, boring Western Conference game between two bad teams. The Blues are in the second half of a back to back, losing 3-2 in Dallas last night giving up the late game winner to Jason Robertson with a minute left in regulation (double winner in that game for me). They’re 19-24-8 on the season, playing pretty bad on both ends of the ice. The Kings aren’t much better at 20-16-13. Their defense has been good this year, but their offense has been brutal. LA ended a four game losing streak, three of those past regulation with a 4-3 win at home against the Rangers on Tuesday night. The first game between these teams back in October went to OT in St. Louis with the Kings winning 2-1 on the road. With the Blues in the second half of a back to back, I’d lean the Kings win here on the road, but I’m not touching them. I do like the under though in this game, not expecting either team to really score much, and I’ll take it for a unit.
Wild vs. Panthers (9:00)
Not the best cross conference game, but this could be a fun one. The Wild have been fantastic this year, comfortably in third place in the Central Division with a 29-14-9 record. After a bit of a slump, they’ve won three of their last four games, coming off a 4-3 overtime win at home against the Red Wings on Thursday in an awesome game. The Panthers are in real danger of missing the playoffs after winning the Cup back to back, on the outside looking in with a 26-20-3 record. They’re playing a bit better lately, with a four wins in their last six games, coming off a 2-1 shootout win in Winnipeg on Thursday. I like Minnesota to win here at home and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5. I’ll also parlay Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, Quinn Hughes, Matthew Tkachuk, and Sam Reinhart to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll take Kirill to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Oilers vs. Capitals (10:00)
This isn’t the best cross conference matchup to end the night, but it could be a decent game. The Oilers are in second place in the weak Pacific Division with a 25-19-8 record, coming off two losses in a row after a 6-2 loss at home to the Penguins on Thursday. They’ve been good offensively, but their defense and goaltending isn’t great. The Capitals are in the second half of a back to back tonight, ending a four game losing streak last night with a 3-1 win in Calgary, just their seventh win in their last 22 games. They’re on the outside looking in on a Wild Card spot by a few points with a 25-21-6 record, but have statistically played well on the season on both ends of the ice, but not recently. The Caps won the first game between these teams with a 7-4 victory at home in November. Especially with Washington in the second half of a back to back, I like the Oilers to win here at home and I’ll take them parlayed with Connor McDavid to get a point for half a unit. I like the over as well, which I’ll also take for half a unit. I like a few player props here with Leon Draisaitl’s return to the lineup. I’ll parlay McDavid, Draisaitl, and Tom Wilson to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll parlay McDavid to get over 1.5 points with Drasaitl to get a point for half a unit.
Bets
.5u Sabres ML (+113)
.5u Bruins/Canadiens over 6.5 (-105)
1u parlay: David Pastrnak/Nick Suzuki/Cole Caufield 1+ point each (+145)
.5u David Pastrnak over 1.5 points (+150)
.5u Nick Suzuki over 1.5 points (+196)
.5u parlay: David Pastrnak/Nick Suzuki 2+ points each (+523)
1u Hurricanes ML (-130)
.5u parlay: Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov/Stutzle/Tkachuk 1+ point each (+449)
1.5u Lightning ML (-125)
.5u parlay: Werenski/Marchenko/Kucherov/Hagel 1+ point each (+230)
.5u Nikita Kucherov over 1.5 points (+110)
1u Red Wings ML (+105)
.5u parlay: Connor/Scheifele/DeBrincat/Raymond/Larkin 1+ point each (+388)
1u Lucas Raymond over 0.5 point (-165)
1u Kings/Blues under 5.5 (-122)
1u Wild ML (-125)
.5u Kaprizov/Zuccarello/Hughes/Tkachuk/Reinhart 1+ point each (+400)
.5u Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 points (+150)
.5u parlay: Oilers ML/Connor McDavid over 0.5 point (-145)
.5u Oilers/Capitals over 6.5 (-125)
.5u parlay: Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl/Tom Wilson 1+ point each (+118)
.5u parlay: Connor McDavid over 1.5 points/Leon Draisaitl over 0.5 point (+102)
Record: 541-566-1 (-43.36 units)
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