Losing day in the NHL yesterday (cleaned house on the NFL though), going 5-15 to lose 6.65 units for a bad day after my winning Saturday. Let’s bounce back on tonight’s four game slate, which isn’t great.
Lightning vs. Mammoth (7:00)
This should be a really solid cross conference matchup to get the day started. The Lightning are a fantastic team, a point behind the Red Wings for first place in the Atlantic Division. They’re coming off a shocking 8-5 loss in Columbus on Saturday night in the second half of a back to back for a big loss for me (after I got fucked by them in regulation when they needed a shootout to beat the Blackhawks the night before). That was just their second loss in their last 16 games, and their first in regulation. The Mammoth are also playing very well right now, in the first Wild Card spot in the West. They are on a five game win streak with an 8-0-1 record in their last nine games to improve to 27-20-4, coming off a 5-2 win in Nashville on Saturday. Tampa won the first game between these teams 4-2 on the road in November. Both of these are good, but the Bolts are a level above Utah. I like the Lightning to win here at home and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d slightly lean the under at 7.5, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, and Clayton Keller to each get a point for half a unit, and Kucherov to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Rangers vs. Bruins (7:00)
Pretty terrible Eastern Conference matchup between these original six teams. The Rangers have been horrendous, not only struggling offensively any more, but also playing terrible on the back end. They’re 21-25-6 on the season, in last place in the Metro Division and a mess of an organization right now. New York’s been even worse at home, with a pathetic 5-13-4 record at MSG this season. They’re on a three game losing streak, coming off a 3-1 loss in San Jose on Friday night, and have just one win in their last nine games. Meanwhile the Bruins are having a great, unexpected year. They’re in the second Wild Card spot in the East with a 30-20-2 record, picking up two huge points with a 4-3 win at home against the Habs on Saturday for their tenth win in their last twelve games. These teams split their two previous high scoring games, with the Rangers winning 6-2 on the road in November and the B’s answering a couple weeks ago with a 10-2 blowout at home. I like Boston to win here again tonight and I’ll take them for a unit, along with half a unit on the puck line. I like the over, which I’ll also take for a unit. I like a few player props as well. I’ll parlay David Pastrnak, Artemi Panarin, and Mika Zibanejad to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll take Pasta to get over 1.5 points for half a unit.
Flyers vs. Islanders (7:00)
Quite the boring Metro Division matchup here, but it is quite meaningful with the Isles just two points ahead of Philly for the third place spot in the division to get into the playoffs. After a pretty terrible six game losing streak, the Flyers have now gone 2-0-1 in their last three games to improve to 24-17-9 on the season, coming off a huge 7-3 win in Colorado on Friday night that was shocking to the whole hockey world. Philly hasn’t been great on either end of the ice this year. The Isles are 27-19-5 on the season, exceeding a lot of expectations defensively, but their offense stinks. They have just one win in their last four games, coming off a 5-0 shutout loss at home to my Sabres on Saturday afternoon, but were playing well prior to that stretch, with a a 7-3-1 record in their prior eleven games. The Flyers won both previous games between these teams 4-3 in shootouts, at home in October, then on the road in November. I think the Islanders are the slightly better team here and I’d lean they win on the road, but I’m not touching it. Statistically this should line up to a good under, with struggling offenses for both teams and a good defense for New York, but both teams are trending over lately, and both prior games went over. I’d slightly lean the over here at 5.5, but not enough to bet it. I will take a bit of a long shot in this game though and take it to go to overtime for half a unit (60 minute line – draw).
Oilers vs. Ducks (8:30)
Fun game in the Pacific to end the night, with these teams a point apart in the playoff spots in the division. The Oilers are coming off a big 6-5 overtime win at home in a great game against the Caps on Saturday, with Zach Hyman tying the game up with 32 seconds left in regulation and no one other than Connor McDavid ending it in OT. They’re now in second place in the division with a 26-19-8 record. The Ducks are just a point behind them, in the second half of a back to back tonight coming off their seventh straight win in a row, beating the Flame 4-3 in overtime on the road last night as Beckette Sennecke winning it in OT to complete his first career shutout. The more impressive part is that they’re rolling through this win streak with half their team injured. I like the Oilers to win here at home, but the price is way to expensive at -270, even with Anaheim in the second half of a back to back. I’ll parlay them with Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid to each get a point for a unit. I’ll also take Connor and Leon to each get 2 points, both individually, with a unit on McDavid and half a unit on Draisaitl, and parlayed together for half a unit. Both of these teams have been good offensively this season, but both have struggled on the back end. That makes me like the over, but with the 6.5 juiced all the way to -142, I don’t think it’s worth betting.
Bets
1u Lightning ML (-155)
.5u parlay: Kucherov/Guentzel/Hagel/Keller 1+ point each (+210)
.5u Nikita Kucherov over 1.5 points (-110)
1u Bruins ML (-125)
.5u Bruins -1.5 (+237)
1u Bruins/Rangers over 6.5 (-110)
.5u parlay: David Pastrnak/Artemi Panarin/Mika Zibanejad 1+ point each (+138)
.5u David Pastrnak over 1.5 points (+145)
.5u Flyers/Islanders to go to overtime (+300)
1u parlay: Oilers ML & Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl 1+ point each (-168)
1u Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-140)
.5u Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 points (-115)
.5u parlay: Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl 2+ points each (+155)
Record: 561-588-1 (-43.3 units)
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