This week the PGA Tour heads to the iconic Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open with Brooks Koepka making his return to the PGA. Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
South Course (All rounds): Par 72, 7765 yards, the longest and of of the most difficult courses on tour, the longest regular course (non-major) on the PGA Tour, plays 3-4 strokes more difficult on average than the North course, bombers course, seven of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yards, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590 yards so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in two, off the tee golfers will see narrow tree-lined fairways with a lot of bunkers and even thinner, only about 53% of fairways are hit on average here every year (vs. tour average ~62%), rough is pretty thick and gnarly, 82 bunkers, water only in play on one hole, lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors righties that hit a cut off the tee, average to small sized POA (the only pure POA greens on tour, with most of the other courses we POA greens being blended) greens that are multitiered with undulation and false fronts that are very quick, a lot of the greens are narrow in width and longer front to back, lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick but most holes leave an opening in front of the green so golfers have a chance to run up their approach shots with proper placement, tall rough, won’t be as tough as the setup was for the US Open
North Course (Only round 1 or 2): Par 72, 7258 yards, no player has shot their round over par here and won since 1983, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and there is a drivable Par 4 (really need to score on these five holes to even make the cut), off the tee golfers will see average sized fairways with thick-ish rough with some bunkers and trees (but a lot less than the South course), no water in play, 42 bunkers, larger bentgrass greens with bunkers guarding them, no shot tracker, significantly lower driving accuracy here (~50% vs. tour average ~62%), higher GIR % here (~72% vs. tour average ~66%)
Both: Kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, across both courses: seven of the eight Par 3s are longer than 200 yards, six or seven long Par 4s of 400-450 yards each round, weather could play a large factor since it is near the ocean and affected by trade winds
Tournament Notes
- Prior to last year when Harris English won with just a 43rd at the Amex and MC at the Sony, the previous four winners here all showed good form early in the season. Pavon had a T7 two weeks prior in 2024, Homa had three T15s in his first four events of 2023, List had three T30s in his first four events, and Reed had two T6s in his first three events.
- 16 of the last 19 winners here had a previous T10 at this event (beside Rahm and Pavon who won in their first starts here and Scott Stallings)
- 11 of the last 12 winners made at least one start in the calendar year prior to their win
- 11 of the last 20 winners finished that season T30 in Driving Distance and 10 of the last 18 winners have finished inside the T25 for the year (Rose was just outside of that at T28). The ones that didn’t had to putt lights out to win
- 9 of the top 14 finishers last year who finished T9 or better (all of the top 4), 8 of the top 12 finishers in 2024, 5 of the top 10 (all of the top 4) finishers in 2023, all of the top 10 finishers in 2022, 7 of the top 9 finishers in 2021 and all of the top 11 finishers in 2019 gained in proximity from 200+ yards
- No winner has ever shot over par on the North Course since 1983
- Good players win here. There has only been 3 weak winners here in the last 20 years: Scott Stallings (the year he got busted for PEDs) in 2014, Ben Crane in 2010 and Luke List in 2022
- Around 40% of winners here have had a connection to California (growing up here, living here or going to school here), mainly due to the POA greens
- Last year we saw this course twice with the Genesis Invitational moved to Torrey Pines South due to the fires at Riviera, where Aberg won
- Torrey Pines South hosted the US Open in 2008 and 2021
- Brooks Koepka makes his return to the PGA Tour this week after getting out of his LIV contract
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach (South Course): 200+ yards (26.2%)
Field
147 golfers – Not great field strength, but a handful of decent golfers at the top of the board
Defending Champion: Harris English (-8)
Runner Up Last Year: Sam Stevens (-7)
One and Done: Ludvig Aberg
One and Done Considerations: Ludvig Aberg, Cam Young
Players
Ludvig Aberg: 10400: +1800 – One of the top players in the field and won here last year for the Genesis, 42 and 9 finishes in this tournament the last two years, coming off a WD at The Amex last week with 3,23,20,21,7,9,23,8,36,MC,13,16,MC,60,54,7 finishes in his last 16 starts prior to that, 37th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 11th in Driving Distance, 117th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 30th in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 110th in SG: ARG, 63rd in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 50th in Birdie+ Gained, 36th in Bogie Avoidance
JJ Spaun: 9400: +3000 – Changed his career with his US Open win last year and took it to an entirely different level last year, 15,MC,MC,34,MC,30,MC,23,9 finishes here and finished 34th here at the Genesis last year, 40,4,6,25,23,2,23,MC,14,1,MC,6,37,12 finishes in his last 13 events, missed the cut at the US Open here in 2021, 5th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 48th in Driving Distance, 17th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 31st in Par 5 Scoring, 91st in Proximity 200+ yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 57th in Putting, 20th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 45th in Bogie Avoidance
Hideki Matsuyama: 9300: +3000 – One of the best players in the field, solid course history here with 32,13,9,30,53,45,3,12,33,MC,MC,16 finishes playing this tournament every year since 2014, finished T26 at the US Open here in 2021, finished 13th here at the Genesis last year, 13,1,20,29,26,17,19,16,13,30,42,38,36,MC,17,21 finishes in his last 16 events, 2nd in Approach, 98th in SG: OTT, 107th in Driving Distance, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 43rd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 51st in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 75th in Putting, 17th in Opportunities Gained, 29th in Birdie+ Gained, 13th in Bogie Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 7500: +6600 – Pops in my model and has been playing well in Europe with 4,52,11,3 finishes in his last four DP World Tour events with 14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his PGA Tour starts prior to that, finished 2nd his only time here in 2024, 15th in Approach, 57th in SG: OTT, 12th in Driving Distance, 32nd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 98th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, 13th in Proximity 200+ yards, 121st in SG: ARG, 83rd in Putting, 60th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 29th in Bogie Avoidance
Aldrich Potgieter: 6500: +12500 – Decent longshot pick, crushes the ball off the tee, was in the final group on Sunday here last year before he imploded to finish 15th his only time here, MC,9,38,WD,33,99,59,MC,1,6 finishes in his last ten starts across both tours including his win at the Rocket Mortgage last year, 39th in Approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 7th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 62nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 70th in Par 5 Scoring, 69th in Proximity 200+ yards, 134th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 55th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, 102nd in Bogie Avoidance, also taking his T6 each way
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Stack guys on the North course for Showdown slates on DraftKings and target North course golfers for first round leader bets, since its the easier course and even more so, the guys that start on Hole 1 on the North course, since there’s a nice birdie streak possibility with a stretch of easy holes from 9-12
- Look to live bet guys that start on the South course after round 1 as they should be a few strokes back from the guys that start on the North course and you’ll be able to get nicer odds vs. pre-tournament
- I hit the winner on this event two years in a row, hitting Max Homa at 22:1 in 2023 and cashing in on Luke List in 2022 at 80:1
Bets
Outrights
.6u Ludvig Aberg (+1800)
.4u JJ Spaun (+3000)
.4u Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
.2u Nicolai Hojgaard (+6600)
.1u Aldrich Potgieter (+12500)
T6 Each Ways
.1u Aldrich Potgieter (+2500)
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