This week the PGA Tour heads to one of the most fun venues of the year with a loaded field at TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open! Let’s hit a winner (or a second place winner behind Scheffler)!

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Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7261 yards, plays a bit shorter because of the altitude, need to have a pretty well balanced game to succeed here with a pretty flat distribution of tee to green stats, all three Par 5s are some of the easiest on tour and are all reachable in 2 by a majority of golfers and 17 is a drivable Par 4, off the tee golfers will see narrow landing areas with bunkers placed strategically and water in play (only three water hazards on the course) in play on nine holes, 67 bunkers, lot of roll out from tee shots, large misses could land in desert vegetation, rough around the fairways isn’t too penal and golfers should still be able to hit decent approach shots out of it, with the high elevation drives (especially) and approach shots will go farther, overseeded POA trivial blend grass, bunkers guarding most greens, greens are relatively flat, firm and fast in a large variety of sizes, some of the easiest greens on tour, this course has the third longest driving distance average on tour (averaging 304.5 yards vs. 283 yards tour average) with over 61% of drives going over 300 yards, scrambling and GIR % are higher than tour average where fairways gained is lower than tour average so missing the fairways doesn’t matter much

Tournament Notes

• The biggest party in golf and the crowd is always a factor here, drawing a typical 500k fans for the week. Most of that loud party atmosphere is limited to the Hole 16 Stadium Hole
• A bad finish at the Farmers hasn’t really been too detrimental to the top of the leaderboard here historically the next week
• Behind Augusta and Waialae, this is the third highest place on tour where course history makes an impact
• Not a signature event this season
• Prior to last year when Thomas Detry won by 7 strokes, 6 of the 9 previous years this event had gone to a playoff and the other two besides Scheffler winning by 2 strokes in 2023, were decided by just a stroke
• In 2023, all T9 finishers here gained on approach from 150-175 yards
• 12 of the 13 T10 finishers in 2022 gained strokes on the Par 5s. In 2024, everyone that finished T20 besides Adam Scott gained strokes on the Par 5s (Taylor and Adam Schenk technically both lost 0.1 strokes). Last year 11 of the 14 players that finished T12 gained strokes on Par 5s.
• 14 of the last 15 winners here had a T5 in one of their previous 5 events
• Prior to the last three years where all three 54 hole leaders went on to win, just eight 54 hole leaders since 2000 and just two since 2009 (Phil in 2013, Rickie in 2019) went on to win
• 34 of the last 50 players in the last nine years that finished T5 here played Torrey the week before, 13 of them had MC’d at Torrey, 7 had made cut but finished outside T30 at Torrey and in 2021 Carlos Ortiz finished 29th, Scheffler finished T20 and Theegala finished 25 in 2022, JT finished 25th in 2023. Last year, Thomas Detry finished T15 at Torrey before winning here. Only Tony Finau (T6) and Bubba Watson (T6) in 2020, Xander Schauffele (2) in 2021, and Rahm and Day (both T7) in 2023 finished T10 or better at Torrey the week before in that span of time.Nick Taylor won here in 2024 after being the runner up to Scottie the prior year
• Bad putters can win here
• My favorite non-major of the year

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (7 of the Par 4s are 442-490 yards)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.2%)

Corollary Courses

TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS) – eleven players have won both of these tournaments

Field

132 golfers – Fantastic field strength for a non-elevated event

Last Year’s Champion (not defending, went to LIV): Thomas Detry (-24)

Runner Up Last Year: Michael Kim, Daniel Berger (-17)

One and Done: Cameron Young

One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Cameron Young

Players

Cameron Young: 9800: +2300 – Elite off the tee and he’s been decent with his irons, has gained at least 2.85 strokes on approach five times in his last six starts, playing fantastic golf late last year and to start this season (with a win at the Wyndham last year) with 22,10,9,4,11,5,1,MC,46,52,4,4,25,47,7 finishes in his last 16 events, 12,8,64,26 finishes the last four years here, 41st in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 30th in Par 5 Scoring, 80th in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 40th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 55th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, used a boost on him in the non-Scotty market

Hideki Matsuyama: 9600: +2450 – His irons have been good to start the year and he hasn’t had a finish worse than 26th since last June, fantastic course history as a former back to back winner here in 2016 and 2017 with 25,22,29,8,42,16,15,1,1,2,4 finishes, 11,13,1,20,29,26,17,19,16,13,30,42,38,36,MC,17,21 finishes in his last 17 events, 6th in Approach, 91st in SG: OTT, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 42nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 51st in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 66th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 38th in Birdie+ Gained, taking him in the non-Scheffler market

Viktor Hovland: 9200: +3600 – One of the top players in the field and lines up great statistically for this course despite a lousy course history with 42,MC,MC finishes here, 14,23,6,5,12,7,32,63,11,3,25,28,54,13,21,1 finishes in his last 16 events on the DP World Tour and PGA, 2nd in Approach, 59th in SG: OTT, 32nd in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 28th in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 42nd in SG: ARG, 46th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, his price takes into account his bad course history, taking him in the non-Scheffler market

Brooks Koepka: 8700: +4000 – In his PGA Tour return last week, even though he finished T56 he was 11th in SG: T2G last week at the Farmers but was the worst in the field putting (losing 7.23 strokes on the greens), has never lost strokes putting here (gained an average of 3.37 strokes putting in his five times here), two time winner here in 2021 and 2015 with 3,1,42,41,1 finishes here, 27th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 49th in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 9th in SG: ARG, 44th in Putting, 57th in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdie+ Gained, stats obviously don’t include his LIV events the last three years so they’re a bit skewed, I should’ve locked him in at a better price earlier this week, taking him in the non-Scheffler market

Pierceson Coody: 8000: +8250 – Playing great right now as a longer shot, last week in his T2 finish at The Farmers he was 4th in SG: T2G and led the field in SG: OTT last week, 2,18,13,22,3,14,MC,3,MC,16,25,52,40 finishes in his last 13 events, first time playing this event, 66th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 113th in Proximity: 150-175 yards, 59th in SG: ARG 60th in Putting, 80th in Opportunities Gained, 40th in Birdie+ Gained, his price between the non-Scheffler and standard outright are so far apart that I’ll take both

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (10%)

Proximity: 150-175 yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Scottie Scheffler is probably going to win this week, but his price at +225 is absolutely ridiculous and you can’t really bet him at that number and even if you could get a 100% boost, that still doesn’t even make it worth it at less than +500. I considered him as first round leader around +1000, but even that wasn’t enough to bet on in a single round. Instead, I’m betting all my golfers in the non-Scheffler markets.

Bets

Outrights (without Scheffler)

.7u Hideki Matsuyama (+1850)

.5u Viktor Hovland (+2700)

.5u Cameron Young (+3600)

.5u Brooks Koepka (+3750)

.3u Pierceson Coody (+4000)

Outrights

.3u Pierceson Coody (+8250)

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