This week the PGA Tour heads to Monterey Peninsula for the first signature event of the season, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Coming off my playoff loss on Hideki last week, let’s hit the winner!

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Course Breakdown

Pebble Beach Golf Links (All Rounds): Par 72, 6972 yards, 116 bunkers, fairways aren’t as wide, smallest greens on the PGA Tour, two Par 5s are reachable by all golfers, one will barely be reachable by any golfer, one reachable for long hitters, Par 4s here are a lot shorter than average with six Par 4s under 400 yards, course hugs the cost line which makes it very hard if wind picks up, wind strongly effects how difficult this course plays, above average size fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, guys club down here and use less than driver on a lot of holes, annually the course with shortest average drive on Tour (268 yards vs. 284 yards average) and fewest amount of drives over 300 yards (17%), driving accuracy here is higher than tour average (~72% vs. ~62%), rough isn’t very penal since it is playable to the shitty amateurs in the Pro Am (lowest proximity on tour from the rough), out of bounds comes into play on almost half the holes, very small POA greens (half size of tour average and smallest greens on the PGA Tour) that have the lowest putts made % on tour (second lowest 5-10 feet, lowest 10-15 feet, third lowest 15-25 feet), lots of bunkers and false fronts around the greens

Spyglass Hill Golf Course (Rounds 1-2): Par 72, 7050 yards, has played more difficult than Pebble ten of the last 13 years, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and 17 is a reachable Par 4, 62 bunkers, water in play on four holes, coastal sandy areas on the first few holes but the course then moves inland, lot of trees on this course so wind could be less of a factor but it’s a harder course if it isn’t windy at Pebble, average sized fairways with just a few bunkers, lot of trees and some water if golfers miss the fairway, slightly larger POA greens than Pebble (still the fifth smallest on tour) but with a lot more slope and undulation, will have ShotLink data this year for the first time

Tournament Notes

• Thankfully this year this is an “signature” event again with no cut and a smaller field, with the Pro-Am cut down to just two rounds and Monterey Peninsula out of the course rotation
• This tournament is typically the worst to watch on TV all season because of the stupid Pro-Am with rounds taking 6+ hours and the annoying celebrities with their shitty golf shots being featured more than the PGA players – this year with the cut down field, the Pro-Am cut down to just two rounds and just a two course rotation instead of three (I don’t give a fuck to watch fucking Bill Murray’s swing get analyzed)
• Weather is a big factor here, in good weather these are all easy courses but in bad weather they get very difficult so lot of variability in this tournament
• Course history is very important for this event since its typically so different with it taking so long with all the celebrities and ridiculous rounds, it takes a different toll to deal with that on a weekly basis. There will be a lesser effect to that this year again with the Pro-Am being just two rounds
• A lot of variety in winners here with a lot of winners outside the Top 100 and not many in the Top 20, but favorites do have success here
• Americans win here (not Euros, only 4 non-Americans have won in the last like 50 years)
• No one has won here for the first time here since the 1950s
• The leader or co-leader after 54 holes, has gone on to win 13 times since 2000 including 9 of the past 12 years (Phil was 3 back from Casey in 2019) – not including 2024 where this was just a 54 hole event with the weather ending it early
• In 2021, besides Paul Casey, the other six players that finished T5 were all American and only 3 of the 11 that finished T10 here were not American (and only 6 of the T25)
• 12 of the last 17 winners here played at least 3 events in January and February prior to playing here (Justin Rose and Wyndham Clark, who had both played just two, Vaughn Taylor, Phil Mickelson, and Rory McIlroy last year are the only ones not to)
• Justin Rose (who had a T18), Ted Potter, Phil Mickelson (in 2012), Vaughn Taylor, Nick Taylor, and Rory McIlroy are the only 6 winners the last 16 years that didn’t have a T15 in one of their 3 prior events that calendar year
• Besides Rory McIlroy last year, including US Opens, every winner at Pebble Beach since 2000 has a T18 or better in one or more of their previous three starts here
• The field being much stronger for this year in this event could buck a lot of the trends for this tournament once again
• In 2024 this event got cut down to 54 holes because of the weather (with all bets placed before the 54th hole was place paid out, but any after that on Saturday being refunded)
• This course has previously hosted the US Open, most recently in 2019 when Gary Woodland won

Key Stats

Approach (4x more impactful here than SG: OTT), SG: ARG, Par 4 Scoring, GIR

Main proximity distance range on approach (Pebble Beach): 100-125 yards (21.8%), 200+ yards (21.7%)

Field

80 golfers – Great field strength with this being a signature event so all of the best players on Tour are in the field

Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Runner Up Last Year: Shane Lowry (-19)

One and Done: Russell Henley

One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama

Players

Viktor Hovland: 9900: +2800 – Crushing it on approach and should map out nicely, 22,58,13,38 finishes here and finished 12th here as an amateur at the US Open in 2019, 10,14,23,6,5,12,7,32,63,11,3,25,28,54,13,21,1 finishes in his last 17 events on the DP World Tour and PGA, 2nd in Approach, 50th in SG: OTT, 27th in Par 3 scoring, 75th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 44th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 19th in Par 5 Scoring, 61st in Proximity 100-125 yards, 8th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 38th in SG: ARG, 36th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in GIR Gained

Hideki Matsuyama: 9600: +3300 – His approach numbers have been fantastic to start the year and he hasn’t had a finish worse than 26th since last June, this course should mitigate his driving issues, coming off falling apart on 18 and driving the ball poorly to go to a playoff and then snap hooking his drive in the playoff into the water to lose last week at the Waste Management (bummer of a loss for me to head into the Super Bowl), 2,11,13,1,20,29,26,17,19,16,13,30,42,38,36,MC,17,21 finishes in his last 18 events, 48 and 71 finishes here the last two years but finished 21st here at the US Open in 2019, 6th in Approach, 68th in SG: OTT, 36th in Par 3 scoring, 18th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 44th in Par 5 Scoring, 39th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 30th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 50th in Putting, 26th in Opportunities Gained, 35th in Birdie+ Gained, 21s in GIR Gained

Russell Henley: 9200: +3500 – Won last year at the API and played great to close last year with a solid start in his two events this year with great approach play with his irons, 8,19,19,15,17,10,2,10,5,MC,46,8,MC,30,1,6 finishes in his last 16 events, was great on approach and putt the lights out in his 5th place finish here last year with 5,58,MC,15,MC,52 finishes here, 16th in Approach, 59th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Par 3 scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 38th in Par 5 Scoring, 16th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 24th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 10th in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 58th in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 49th in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in GIR Gained

Sepp Straka: 7700: +6300 – Won several times last year and maps out nicely for this course, 54 hole leader here last year, 7,26,MC finishes here and finished 28th here at the US Open in 2019, 18,MC,3,17,52,7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11 finishes in his last 17 events, 14th in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 26th in Par 3 scoring, 41st in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 27th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 34th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 5th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 25th in Proximity 200+ yards, 74th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained, 14th in GIR Gained

Model

Approach (15%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards (5%) 

Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

Proximity 100-125 yards (10%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

GIR Gained (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Dial back exposure a bit on this tournament cause its typically a complete joke because of the Pro-Am format in the first two rounds (should be slightly less so this year, but the no cut with the smaller field throws a bit more of a wrench in it)
• Scheffler scares me again this week (Rory does a bit too, but not as much), so I shopped both the markets offered on the without Scottie market and the without Scottie and Rory market – all of them were close enough that I’m betting all my golfers in the without Scheffler and McIlroy market (most of those were actually better prices there vs. just without Scottie)
• Smaller card for me this week since it’s a smaller field with lower odds and Scottie and Rory at the top of the board

Bets

Outrights without Scheffler & McIlroy

.5u Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)

.5u Russell Henley (+2800)

.5u Viktor Hovland (+3125)

.3u Sepp Straka (+5000)

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