After a year without seeing Riviera Country Club in LA, this week the PGA Tour returns to this iconic venue for the Genesis Invitational. I’m coming off two second place finishes in a row, let’s finally hit the winner this week!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7322 yards, plays long since the Par 5s are short and the Par 4s are all very long, all three Par 5s are under 600 yards and are the easiest holes on the course which give up around 45% of all birdies on this course (#1 is the easiest hole on the PGA and there is the most eagles here), also a drivable Par 4 (#10), besides the short #10 every Par 4 plays above Par with seven of the Par 4s over 450 yards, 58 bunkers, no water hazards, one of lowest driving accuracy courses (~51% vs. 61% Tour average) but that doesn’t effect things nearly as much as distance or long iron play do, tight fairways, lots of difficult fairway bunkers with huge lips, challenging doglegs especially to the right side (which favors righty’s that hit a fade or most lefty’s who play a draw), tree lined but that shouldn’t effect much if you don’t wildly miss the fairway, spongy kikuya fairways and somewhat thick rough (popular grass in South Africa but only here and other than here is only at Torrey Pines in the US) with inconsistent lies depending on where they land in the rough, small and fast POA greens that are multi-tiered with lots of undulation and slope, guarded by a lot of bunkers and false fronts, one of lowest GIR courses on tour (~56% vs. 66% Tour average) as one of the top ten hardest GIR courses on tour in eleven of the last twelve seasons, behind Pebble Beach here has hardest greens to hit on tour from within 125 yards (76%), toughest putting course between 3-5 feet in six of the last ten seasons, in top three courses on tour of missed putts within three feet every year, most missed putts on tour within 5 feet, bombers and lefty’s have an advantage
Tournament Notes
- In 2020, this tournament became a reduced field invitational and Tiger (who’s in the field for the first time this season this week) became the host. This year it’s even less with just 72 golfers in the signature event field
- There is a cut this week, with the T50 and ties advancing to the weekend
- 70% of the golfers that have finished T3 here in the last ten years have been inside T56 in approach in the year they finished T3
- 80% of the golfers that finished T3 here in the last 17 years have been inside the T55 in SG: T2G in the year they finished T3
- 15 of the last 17 winners here had at least three previous career wins
- 17 of the last 19 winners here had played in at least four previous Genesis Invitationals
- 15 of the last 19 winners have finished 12th or higher in a previous Genesis Invitational
- 19 of the last 23 winners here finished 35th or higher in their last start before the Genesis Invitational
- 15 of the last 18 winners here played Pebble Beach or Waste Management in their previous start prior to winning
- This course hosted the PGA Championship in 2017
- Last year the Genesis Invitational was held at Torrey Pines due to the fires in the Pacific Palisades
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, SG: ARG, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.8%), 175-200 yards (23.4%), 200+ yards (25.2%)
Corollary Courses
- Augusta National (The Masters)
- Other than James Hahn in 2015, Max Homa in 2021 and Joaquin Niemann in 2022, every other golfer that has won here in the last 31 years has finished T22 or better at some point in their career
- 21 of the last 35 winners here have won or come in 2nd at The Masters at some point in their career
- 27 of the last 35 winners here have finished inside the T10 at Augusta all time
- 31 of the last 35 winners here have finished inside the T20 at Augusta all time
- Every lefty thats won the Masters (Bubba, Phil, Mike Weir) has won here multiple times
- Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship) – lot of crossover leaders (including James Hahn, JB Holmes, and Max Homa that won both events)
- Torrey Pines South (Farmers Insurance Open) – similar Kakuya grass
Field
72 golfers – Invitiational strength field with all the best players on the PGA Tour
Defending’s Champion (Riviera): Ludvig Aberg (-12)
Runner Up Last Year (Riviera): Mav McNealy (-11)
2024 Champion: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
2024 Runner Up: Will Zalatoris, Luke List (-14)
One and Done: Tommy Fleetwood
One and Done Considerations: Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler
Players
Rory McIlroy: 11300: +1275 – In his season debut on the PGA last week at Pebble his driving and his putting were bad last week so I expect him to bounce back and his approach numbers were great, 14,33,3,14,2,3,26,20,1,23,12,7,2,6,19 finishes in his last 15 events both on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour with a win at the Irish Open, 24,29,10,MC,5,4,20,20 finishes here, 60th in Approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Driving Distance, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 71st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 45th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 26th in Proximity 200+ yards, 48th in SG: ARG, 4 in Putting, 59th in Opportunities Gained, his odds are just way better than Scheffler and even though I considered just taking him straight up I’ll take the slightly lower number to not have to beat Scottie (probably the wrong decision, but whatever, just win)
Tommy Fleetwood: 10300: +2150 – One of the top players in the field and I think he wins with how he maps out for this course, played great in his 4th place finish at Pebble last week in his PGA season debut, with wins at the DP World India Championship and the Tour Championship (for his electric first win on US soil) he’s playing great with 4,41,25,3,2,1,21,46,1,4,3,16,32,2,MC,16,4,41,4,7 finishes in his last 20 events on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, 10,20,28,37 finishes here, 11th in Approach, 32nd in SG: OTT, 50th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 27th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 65th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 5th in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, taking him in the non-Scheffler market
Hideki Matsuyama: 9500: +2150 – He’s been on fire this year and has to win soon (after he lost in a playoff after blowing it on 18 at the Waste Management two weeks ago, His approach numbers have been fantastic to start the year and he hasn’t had a finish worse than 26th since last June, winner here in 2024 the last time this course hosted this tournament and great course history with 1,MC,39,MC,5,9,MC,11,4,23 finishes here, 8,2,11,13,1,20,29,26,17,19,16,13,30,42,38,36,MC,17,21 finishes in his last 19 events, 6th in Approach, 64th in SG: OTT, 48th in Driving Distance, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 40th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 5th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 46th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, taking him in the non-Scheffler market
Sepp Straka: 7800: +5000 – Won several times last year and maps out nicely for this course with very good iron play, coming off a second place finish last week at Pebble with 2,18,MC,3,17,52,7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11 finishes in his last 18 events, MC,45,15,43,MC finishes here, 12th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 51st in Driving Distance, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 13th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 22nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 22nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 68th in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, taking him in the non-Scheffler market
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (15%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights without Scheffler
1u Rory McIlroy (+1050)
.7u Tommy Fleetwood (+1750)
.6u Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
.5u Sepp Straka (+5000)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 