Since Rory couldn’t make a putt until it was too late, I have three second place finishes in a row as the PGA Tour heads to Palm Beach, Florida for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National.

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Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7223 yards, this used to be one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour every year (6 of the last 13 years, its been the hardest non-major of the year) but it has gotten way easier the last two years with changes overseeding the rough to make it more consistent with GIR % going up 10% over the last two years, Hole 10 which was previously a very long Par 4 (which used to be the most difficult hole on the course) was lengthened 30 yards and turned into an easier Par 5 in 2024, only six holes have played under Par (the Par 5s, 1, 8, and 13), coastal track so wind could be a big factor, 28 water hazards so water is a big factor and in play on 14 holes and over 6700 balls have hit water here since 2007, 60 bunkers, harder than average fairways to hit, thick rough, average sized but very fast and firm Bermuda greens, greens are elevated and contoured and false fronts, a lot of golfers will go mostly less than driver off the tee (one of lowest driving distance averages on tour at 280 yards vs. tour average 284 yards) but bombers have a slight advantage here

Tournament Notes

• This event was called The Honda Classic from 1982 to 2023, with Honda dropping as a sponsor
• This course has hosted this event since 2007
• No player since Jack in 1978 has defended his title here
• The Bear Trap (holes 15-17), which will probably decide the winner on Sunday and since 2007 the Bear Trap and holes 5-7 are the third and fourth most difficult three hole stretches on the PGA Tour
• 4 of the last 10 winners have a T12 finish here in one of the 2 years before winning
• 9 of the last 15 winners here have had a finish of T13 or better in the previous year here before the win
• 14 of the last 17 and all of the last twelve winners here prior to Eckroat two years year had made the cut here before the win, with Highsmith winning his first time here last year (so course history matters a bit)
• Prior to Highsmith last year, all of the previous 15 winners here had played here before they won
• 8 of the last 10 winners here had a T16 or better on the west coast swing that season
• 5 of the last 10 winners here have had a T10 or better on the west coast swing that season (Straka in 2022 had a T15 and T16)
• 11 of the last 16 winners had at least one T10 that season
• Matt Jones, who shot a -9 in 2021 became the only first round leader to have ever won here
• The 54 hole leader won here 11 of the last 19 years

Key Stats

Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.9%), 175-200 yards (21.4%), 150-175 yards (21.4%)

Corollary Courses

• Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – Russell Henley, Mark Wilson, Ernie Els, Justin Thomas all won both events (and Chris Kirk has had four T5s at Sony)
• Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) – lot of crossover success
• TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS) – 13 of the last 16 winners here had a T20 or better at Sawgrass

Field

121 golfers – Horrendous weak field

Defending Champion: Joe Highsmith (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Jacob Bridgeman, JJ Spaun (-17)

One and Done: Shane Lowry

One and Done Considerations: Shane Lowry

Players

Shane Lowry: 9900: +2000 – The best player in the field and he’s said he wants to win this event for years, 24,8,26,3,11,12,3,MC,46,15,13,23,59,40,45 finishes in his last 15 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, 11,5,2,36,21,49,53 finishes here, 2nd in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 78th in Driving Distance, 16th in Good Drives Gained, 47th in Fairways Gained, 20th in Par 3 Scoring, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 6th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 72nd in SG: ARG, 103rd in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, 48th in Sand Saves

Nicolai Hojgaard: 9400: +2150 – Playing well recently, 18 and MC finishes his two times here (2025 and 2022), 3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 12 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, 14th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Distance, 86th in Good Drives Gained, 111th in Fairways Gained, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring, 52nd in Par 4 Scoring, 30th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 99th in SG: ARG, 65th in Putting, 53rd in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Bogey Avoidance, 25th in Sand Saves

Brooks Koepka: 9000: +4000 – Has the talent to be far and away the best player in this field but hasn’t been great the last year and a half on LIV and in his two events back on the PGA with an MC at the Waste Management and in his PGA Tour return at the Farmers – even though he finished T56 he was 11th in SG: T2G at the Farmers but was the worst in the field putting (losing 7.23 strokes on the greens), hasn’t played here since 2022 before he went to LIV with 16,MC,2,MC,26,51,33 finishes here, 19th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 24th in Driving Distance, 65th in Good Drives Gained, 72nd in Fairways Gained, 56th in Par 3 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 48th in Opportunities Gained, 44th in Bogey Avoidance, 56th in Sand Saves

Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 8700: +4600 – Playing well to start the tear and was good in the fall, 42,42,25 finishes here, MC,27,38,42,10,6,62,20,34,13,MC,45,12,MC,16 finishes in his last 15 events, 25th in Approach, 103rd in SG: OTT, 108th in Driving Distance, 9th in Good Drives Gained, 9th in Fairways Gained, 29th in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 99th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 4th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 80th in Opportunities Gained, 29th in Bogey Avoidance, 86th in Sand Saves

Andrew Putnam: 6800: +16500 – Pops as a long shot in my model, 11,MC,MC finishes here, MC,2,67,MC,65,MC,MC,MC,MC,MC,8,6,44,15 finishes in his last 14 events, 54th in Approach, 113th in SG: OTT, 117th in Driving Distance, 6th in Good Drives Gained, 4th in Fairways Gained, 11th in Par 3 Scoring, 49th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 38th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 5th in SG: ARG, 14th in Putting, 67th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, 28th in Sand Saves, also taking his T5 (including ties)

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Good Drives Gained (10%)

Fairways Gained (0%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)

Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Bogey Avoidance (10%)

Sand Saves (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• I have Fairways Gained and Sand Saves shown but not weighted in my model, pretty much to determine a slight edge between similar golfers 

Bets

Outrights

.5u Shane Lowry (+2000)

.5u Nicolai Hojgaard (+2150)

.3u Brooks Koepka (+4000)

.3u Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+4600)

.1u Andrew Putnam (+16500)

T5s (including ties)

.1u Andrew Putnam (+2050)

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