Tonight the NHL is back after a fantastic Olympic break capped by Team USA’s first golden win in 46 years! I went into the break on the three night win streak, going 9-8 to win 1.47 units. Let’s come back strong on tonight’s eight game slate and win!
I’m proceeding a bit cautiously for the next few days as team get back into the swing of things in this closing stretch of the season with these tight playoff races. Most of these guys have been down in Mexico partying, and the guys that were in the Olympics are just flying back from Italy with the Team USA guys partying since Sunday morning with heightened, pissed off emotions from the Canadian players. So I’ll be light on player props these next couple days.
Devils vs. Sabres (7:00)
Fun first game to come out of the break. The Devils have struggled this year, with a 28-27-2 record coming out of the Olympic break, with a terrible offense this season. I’m sure Jack Hughes will be invigorated though, coming off scoring the golden goal for Team USA on Sunday, so that should give them a bit of a boost. My Sabres went into the break with three losses in their last four games, in the first Wild Card in the East, two points behind the Habs and Red Wings for the second and third place spots in the Atlantic with a 32-19-6 record. These teams split their first two games this year, each winning on the road, with the Devils winning with a 5-0 shutout in Buffalo in November and the Sabres answering with a 3-1 win in Jersey in December. I like the Sabres to win here on the road tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet that. I considered taking the two Team USA guys in this game, Hayes and Tage Thompson to each get a point, but I’ll stay off the player props in the first game out of the break.
Capitals vs. Flyers (7:00)
Kind of a lousy game in the Metro Division. Both of these teams have struggled this year. The Caps went into the break hot, winning four of their last five games to improve to 29-23-7 on the year. The Flyers have been horrible after their hot start to the season and went into the break with just three wins in their last 15 games. The Flyers only win in their last six games came the last time these two teams played, winning 4-2 at home. I like the Caps to answer back here and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over at 5.5, but not enough to bet it.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs (7:30)
Pretty big mismatch on the two ends of the Atlantic Division, when in the beginning of the year I thought these two teams would be battling at the top of the division. The Lightning have been spectacular on both ends of the ice, leading the Eastern Conference with a 27-14-4 record, going into the break on a 19-1-1 run. They’re easily my pick to win the East. The Leafs went into the break on a three game win streak, but they’ve struggled this year, six points out of a playoff spot with a 27-21-9 record. They’ve been good offensively, but have struggled big time on the back end. Toronto won the first game between these teams at home in surprising fashion, shutting out the Bolts with a 2-0 win. I like Tampa to answer back here at home and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I considered a few player props here, especially Nikita Kucherov over 1.5 points, but still think it’s best to stay off the player props until teams get back in the swing of things.
Stars vs. Kraken (8:00)
Not the most interesting matchup here in the West, but both of these teams are in playoff spots after hot runs going into the break. The Stars are having a great year, comfortably in third place in the Central, likely playing for home ice in the first round against the Wild, unless either of those teams can catch the Avs. They went into the break on a six game win streak after a slump to improve to 34-14-9 on the season and have played well on both ends of the ice. The Kraken are 27-20-9, in third place in the weak Pacific Division, a point behind the Oilers. Their defense and goaltending has been good all season, but their offense has struggled, but they were scoring going into the break with five wins in their last six games. Dallas won the first two tight games between these teams, winning 2-1 at home and then 3-2 on the road in November. I’d lean the Stars complete the season sweep and the under but not enough to bet either in the first game out of the break. I thought about taking Jason Robertson, who got left off the Team USA roster this year to get a goal tonight, but don’t think that’s worth betting either in the first game back, so I’ll lay off this game completely.
Mammoth vs. Avalanche (9:00)
Interesting game here in the Central. The Mammoth have been pretty solid, in the first Wild Card spot in the West with a 30-23-4 record. They’ve played well on both ends of the ice, going into the break on an 11-3-1 run. The Avalanche have far and away been the best team in the NHL this season, with an impressive 37-9-9 record, but they struggled going into the break with just six wins in their last 15 games, so the reset should help them. The Avs are 2-0-1 this season against Utah, winning 2-1 at home and losing 4-3 on the road in overtime back in October, then answering with a 1-0 shutout at home in December. I thought the price would be higher here, but at -140, I think its worth betting Colorado for half a unit on the road. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also take a player prop here on Nathan MacKinnon since I’m sure the current Hart favorite is ridiculously pissed from losing in the medal game for Team Canada, so I think he comes back with a vengeance, especially after he got meme’d to death on not hitting the empty net. I’ll take Nate to get over 1.5 points for half a unit at even money.
Canucks vs. Jets (10:00)
Awful game here in the West with Connor Hellebuyck getting the night off after getting honored at the White House for being the MVP in Team USA’s win with a spectacular Olympics. Both of these teams have been terrible. The Jets went from winning the President’s Trophy last year to being in the basement of the league with a 22-26-8 record. They’ve been terrible. The Canucks have been even worse, the worst team in the NHL with an 18-33-6 record. Winnipeg won the first game between these teams 5-3 on the road in November, and I’d lean the Jets win here again on the road, but not enough to bet them. I’d lean the over slightly, but I’m not touching this game.
Kings vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
Decent game here in the Pacific to come out of the break, but a bit of the luster is off it with all the Vegas guys that were in the Olympics likely not playing tonight. The Kings haven’t been great, on the outside looking in on a playoff spot, three points back from the Kraken and Ducks for the Wild Card spots. They’re 23-19-14 on the season, playing really well defensively but with an awful offense. Their offense took a big hit during the Olympics with a bad injury for Kevin Fiala ending his season, but replacing him, Artemi Panarin should make his LA debut tonight after getting traded from the Rangers for pretty much nothing before the trade freeze. The Golden Knights have been decent this year, leading the weak Pacific Division with a 27-16-14 record, four points ahead of the Oilers. Vegas is 2-0-1 this season against LA, losing 6-5 at home in a shootout on opening night, answering with a 3-2 with an overtime win in January on the road, then winning 4-1 in February at home. With most of the best players on the Knights likely out of the lineup tonight, I’d slightly lean the Kings win here at home, but I’m not touching it, especially at -170. I will take a half unit shot though on Panarin to score a goal in his debut here.
Ducks vs. Oilers (10:30)
Fun matchup in the Pacific to end the night with these teams both in playoff spots and separated by just a point in the standings. The Ducks are 30-23-3 on the year, tied with Seattle for the two Wild Card spots. The Oilers went into the break on a three game losing streak to drop to 28-22-8 on the season, in second place, a point ahead of the Kraken and Ducks, and four points back from Vegas for first place. Both of these teams have been very inconsistent, with good offenses but lousy defenses. I like the over quite a bit here, and I’ll take it for half a unit. The Oilers won the first game between these teams 7-4 at home in January. I expect Connor McDavid to come in here pissed off from Canada’s loss, especially after losing the Cup Finals two years in a row. I think he’s motivated big time as the acting captain for Team Canada, and I’ll take him to get over 1.5 points for half a unit. I’d lean he leads them to a win here on the road, but not enough to bet it.
Bets
.5u Sabres ML (-110)
.5u Capitals ML (-155)
.5u Lightning in regulation (-140)
.5u Avalanche ML (-140)
.5u Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points (+100)
.5u Artemi Panarin anytime goal (+170)
.5u Oilers/Ducks over 6.5 (-140)
.5u Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-130)
Record: 662-703-1 (-41.47 units)
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