This week the PGA goes to Bay Hill in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with a loaded signature event field. Coming off my fourth second place finish in a row and three T10s last week, let’s hit the winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7466 yds, plays a bit longer than the yardage, good mix of holes where bombers will have an advantage and others where accuracy will be more of an advantage with a 3 wood or less than driver, all four of the Par 3s are between 200-225 yards, Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a lot of golfers but bombers will obviously have an advantage, easy to hit wide tree lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers in the landing zones on almost every tee shot, nine water traps that are in play on ten of the holes, 84 bunkers, lot of doglegs, thick rough, trimmed rough around hazards which causes more trouble, lot of slopes and undulation on the fairways, guys will have to lay up so average drives are 6 yards shorter than tour average (~278 vs. 284 yards) and driving accuracy is 64% vs. tour average of 62%, almost 30% of approach shots come from beyond 200 yards (most of any course on tour, a huge outlier), lower than average GIR % (~60% vs. 66%), a bit larger than average greens, very difficult course especially when wind picks up which plays a pretty big factor, firm Bermuda greens and fairways, greens are very FAST with slopes and runoff areas especially on the front of the greens, second lowest made putt percentage on tour between 10-15 feet (behind Harbour Town), greenside bunkers aren’t too penal, wind highly effects how this course plays and makes it much more difficult
Tournament Notes
- SG Approach is way more influential than ATG and OTT this week (2.7x more than SG: OTT and 4.2x more than SG: ATG, 2x more than SG: OTT and 2.5x more than SG: ATG for T5)
- Putting could be a little more influential here than usual but not enough for me to want to weigh as much as a key stat
- Elevated event with a $20M purse and a cut of T50 and ties after Friday
- 28 of the last 29 winners here had won on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour prior to their win here
- Veterans win here, with 34 of the last 35 winners here having at least 125 previous career PGA Tour or DP World Tour starts
- 14 of the last 19 winners had at least 3 previous career wins
- 27 of the last 30 winners had a T10 previously in an event the season that they won
- 8 of the last 11 winners had a T5 here at some point prior to their win
- 10 of the last 11 winners had a T17 here at some point prior to their win (Kitayama won in his first start here in 2024)
- 18 of the last 21 winners here finished T20 here at some point previously in their career
- 18 of the last 21 winners here had played this event at least 3 times prior in their career
- 13 of the last 15 winners here had played the previous season and made the cut (Scottie Scheffler in 2022, who didn’t play the prior year but had a T15 here in the season before that and Kurt Kitayama last year who won in his first start)
- Besides Kurt Kitayama in 2023 who won in his first start, each of the last 19 winners here made the cut in their previous time playing this event
- 12 of the last 14 winners here were T55 on tour in proximity 200+ yards that year
- Internationals have won this event the last 5 of the last 10 years (Bryson, Scottie Scheffler twice, Kitayama, and Henley are the ones that hadn’t)
- 19/43 players who finished T5 or better in the last six years here were internationals
- Only five Americans have won this event since 2006: Tiger (who’s won here 8 times in his career), Matt Every (twice), Bryson, Scheffler (twice), Kitayama, and Henley
- In 7 of the last 11 years, the winner has shot better than -10 on the Par 5s for the week
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 5 scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (28.8%)
Corollary Courses
- Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day won both events in the last 8 years
- Conway Farms Golf Club (BMW Championship) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day both won both events on years when the BMW was held at Conway Farms
- Wentworth Club (BMW PGA Championship – European Tour) – Hatton, Molinari and Rory won there recently who all won here the last six years
Field
72 golfers – Fantastic field strength with this being a signature event
Defending Champion: Russell Henley (-11)
Runner Up Last Year: Collin Morikawa (-10)
One and Done: Nicolai Hojgaard
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, McIlroy, Fleetwood, Nicolai Hojgaard
Players
Tommy Fleetwood: 10300: +1850 – One of the top golfers in the field right behind Scottie and Rory, solid course history with 11,MC,61,20,10,MC,3,26,10 finishes here, 7,4,41,25,3,2,1,21,46,1,4,3,16,32,2,MC,16,4,41,4,7 finishes in his last 21 events on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, 11th in Approach, 39th in SG: OTT, 18th in Proximity 200+ yards, 27th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in SG: ARG, 11th in Putting, 33rd in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdies+ Gained, 28th in Bogey Avoidance
Ludvig Aberg: 8400: +3900 – His skillset maps out great for this course and he’s trending upwards, gaining over a stroke on difficult to very difficult courses, gaining over a stroke on tournaments with very strong fields, gaining over 1.5 strokes on very long course, his best putting surface is Bermuda, has won at Torrey Pines, 20,37,MC,WD,3,23,20,21,7,9,23,8,36,MC,13,16,MC,60,54,7 finishes in his last 20 starts, 22,25,24 finishes here, 36th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 78th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 13th in Par 4 Scoring, 60th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 34th in Par 5 Scoring, 75th in SG: ARG, 50th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 54th in Birdies+ Gained, 39th in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 7400: +4000 – Won several times last year and maps out nicely for this course with elite iron play especially recently, 5,57,Mc,MC,MC,MC finishes here, 50,2,18,MC,3,17,52,7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11 finishes in his last 19 events, 13th in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 29th in Proximity 200+ yards, 26th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 18th in Par 5 Scoring, 82nd in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdies+ Gained, 4th in Bogey Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 7200: +6000 – Play great right now and he’s cheap enough to keep betting every week while he’s primed for a win, 6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 13 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, missed the cut his two times here in 2024 and 2022 but he’s a completely different level of a golfer now, 22nd in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 31st in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 63rd in Par 4 Scoring, 74th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 80th in SG: ARG, 58th in Putting, 52nd in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdies+ Gained, 33rd in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdies+ Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ve done pretty good on this event in the past crushing top 5s and getting the runner up in 2023 and 2022. In 2025, five of my six golfers I bet on came T25 or better. In 2023, I had 6/7 make the cut with Rory’s runner up and two more T4s. In 2022, I had 4/5 making the cut with T2,T20,T26 finishes. In 2021, I hit 2 T10s with 4/5 making the cut. In 2020, I hit the winner and 3 T5s in my 5 picks
- Slight advantage on Showdown slates with golfers starting on Hole 1
- A lot of books are offering markets without Scheffler and Rory, which I’ll be using this week instead of betting either of those guys
Bets
Outrights without Scheffler & McIlroy
.8u Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)
.4u Ludvig Aberg (+2800)
.3u Sepp Straka (+4000)
.3u Nicolai Hojgaard (+4000)
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