This week the PGA Tour has their biggest signature event of the year, heading to TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS. Last week my streak of four second place finishes came to an end with…a T3…Let’s win this week!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7352 yards (a bit lengthened, with a few new tee boxes last year and they added the giant tree back on the No. 6 tee), Pete Dye course so its a placement course, you need to miss in the right spots, three of the four Par 5s are reachable in two by most so guys will get eagle looks, the 12th hole is also a risk/reward driveable Par 4 for eagle looks, 5 of the Par 4s are 450-500 yards, 17 water hazards (over 24 acres) with water in play on every hole, 92 bunkers, overseeded Bermuda grass, narrow tree-lined fairways with trouble in play on pretty much every tee shot, a lot of mounds and undulation on the fairways, lots of different doglegs (a Pete Dye staple), average fairway % (~62%), bit below average GIR % (~63% vs. tour average ~65%), less than driver course like most other Pete Dye courses (average driving distance: ~279 yards vs. tour average ~284 yards) but guys have been hitting them way more the last few years, the rough has been grown up the past few years about an extra inch to 3-3.5 inches (2-2.5 inches in previous years), the greens are listed as Poa Trivialis now due to that at this time of the year the Bermuda hasn’t quite grown in yet to be classified as overseeded Bermuda greens, faster than average green speeds, very small and difficult multi-tier greens with a lot of undulation surrounded by water hazards and bunkers, most 3 putts of any non-major course on tour (only yearly course that beats it is Augusta)
Tournament Notes
- In 2019 this tournament was moved from May to March and the course plays a bit slower than it did later in the season and changes the direction of the prevailing winds on the course
- Course history here could be tough to gauge on because if a player has one or two bad holes that could screw them for the whole week (like Paul Casey in 2019)
- There is a ton of variance in the skill sets that could win this course, everyone could win here and bad putters are neutralized here
- With this being an elevated event now, the purse is the highest for any tour event ever at $25 million. The winner gets $4.5 mliion, second gets $2.7 million, the entire top 5 gets at least a million each and the T41 all make six figures
- SG Approach is over 2.5x more important than SG: OTT and SG: ATG (0.43 per round) to T10 finishes
- Since this tournament moved to March, Cam Smith was the only non-major winner to win here at the time and then went on to win The Open that same year
- Prior to Scottie Scheffler in 2024, no defending champ had ever gone back to back here
- 14 of the last 15 winners have had a T5 prior to their win in the same calendar year that they won
- 17 of the last 18 winners here had a T23 here at some point prior to their win, with Scottie Scheffler in 2023 being the only one (his best finish prior was 55)
- All but one of the last 41 winners here played this event at least once previously
- The last 27 winners here made the cut in their previous start before their win
- 20 of the last 22 winners ranked in the T45 of the OWGR
- 12 of the last 14 winners ranking in the T45 in SG:ARG for the year leading up to their win
- 19 of the last 21 winners ranked T35 in approach for the year leading up to their win
- 13 of the last 15 winners had a T5 or better in a prior event that season on the year they won
- 13 of the last 14 winners finished T22 or better in their previous start before the win
- 12 of the last 14 winners had a T4 or better in a prior event that season on the year they won
- Every winner here since 2019 has been a major champion
- The last nine winners have had a T25 in their last PGA Tour start prior to their win
- In 2021, seven of the 15 golfers that came T10 here finished Top 20 for the year in bogie avoidance
- Usually elite players (Top 10/Top 20 in the world) win this tournament but there definitely are outliers like when Si Woo Kim won
- Every winner here since 2010 (besides Si WOOOO Kim and JT in 2021) had either a T25 the week before or a T10 in their previous event played (Si Woo was 22nd, JT was 15th)
- 15 of the last 18 winners were T60 in Scrambling for the season that they won (scrambling is a flawed stat vs. SG: ARG)
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4s Gained (450-500 yards), Bogie Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.2%)
Corollary Courses
- Pete Dye courses: TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (The American Express), Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- PGA National (Honda Classic) – similar Florida conditions at this time of the year with overseeded Bermuda
- Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – Five of the last eleven champions at the Wyndham also won THE PLAYERS (Davis Love III, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia), same fast greens, Bermuda grass and lots of laying up off the tee on a pretty short course
Field
121 golfers – Fantastic field with all of the best players on the PGA Tour
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy (-12 in a Monday playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: JJ Spaun (-12)
One and Done: Collin Morikawa
One and Done Considerations: Collin Morikawa
Players
Tommy Fleetwood: 10300: +3125 – Had a bad week at the Arnold Palmer last week but is playing great this season and an elite player in the field, 14,35,27,22,MC,5,7,41 finishes here, 49,7,4,41,25,3,2,1,21,46,1,4,3,16,32,2,MC,16,4,41,4,7 finishes in his last 22 events on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, 12th in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 10th in Fairways Gained, 24th in Proximity 200+ yards, 18th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 9th in SG: ARG, 14th in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdies+ Gained, 34th in Bogey Avoidance
Collin Morikawa: 9800: +1850 – Playing fantastic golf to start the year and in the best form of all the elite players, won already once this year at a signature event at Pebble Beach, former major champion, 5,7,1,54,MC,14,43,33,22 finishes in his last nine events, 10,45,13,MC,41 finishes here, 4th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 5th in Fairways Gained, 64th in Proximity 200+ yards, 28th in Par 3 Scoring, 59th in Par 4 Scoring, 111th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 87th in Par 5 Scoring, 84th in SG: ARG, 118th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Birdies+ Gained, 66th in Bogey Avoidance
Russell Henley: 9000: +2600 – Maps out nicely for the course, won last year at the API and played great to close last year and has started this year real well with very good iron play, 6,MC,19,8,19,19,15,17,10,2,10,5,MC,46,8,MC,30,1,6 finishes in his last 19 events, 30,MC,19,13,MC,MC,MC,35,MC,24,17,MC, 16th in Approach, 87th in SG: OTT, 4th in Fairways Gained, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 33rd in Par 3 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 52nd in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in SG: ARG, 89th in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 62nd in Birdies+ Gained, 8th in Bogey Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 7600: +5800 – Won several times last year and maps out nicely for this course with elite iron play especially recently, has won at a Pete Dye course with Poa Trivialis greens at last year’s American Express and won the 2022 Honda Classic which is another Florida course with a ton of water that needs great approach play, 13,50,2,18,MC,3,17,52,7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11 finishes in his last 20 events, 4,16,65,9,MC finishes here, 14th in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 19th in Fairways Gained, 41st in Proximity 200+ yards, 36th in Par 3 Scoring, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 34th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 109th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 28th in Birdies+ Gained, 4th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdies+ Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Stack golfers starting on the 1st hole in Showdown slates on DraftKings for easier birdie streaks
- 13 of the last 15 first round leaders here started in the AM wave
- I had Xander here in 2024, who was the 54 hole leader and ended up tied for second behind Scottie
Bets
Outrights
.7u Collin Morikawa (+1850)
.5u Russell Henley (+2600)
.5u Tommy Fleetwood (+3125)
.2u Sepp Straka (+5800)
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