This week the PGA Tour heads to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook in Tampa for the Valspar Championship. Let’s hit the winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7352 yards, five Par 3s and four Par 5s, averages to typically play as a top five most difficult course on tour, adjusted to par this actually is a deceptively long course, typically windy event (average ~15 mph), plotters course where precision and placement is more important than distance, overseeded Bermuda grass, less than driver course on a majority of holes (driver usage only 54% over the last five years), four of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, all the Par 5s are longer than 550 yards, seven of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, average fairways to hit, severe doglegs, tight tree lined fairways which get extremely narrow the farther from the tee box especially around the 300 yard mark so a lot of golfers will go less than driver on a majority of holes and the average driving distance is in the lowest six on Tour (272 yards vs. tour average 284 yards), lot of changes in elevation, 74 bunkers, eight water hazards in play on nine holes, harder than average greens to hit (~60% vs. tour average ~66%), firm smaller Poa Trivialis overseeded greens with average speeds with lots of back to front slopes, lowest birdie+ % of any course on tour, second most 3 putts inside 5 feet since 2011 (behind Riviera), the rough got grown out to 3.75-4 inches the past couple years from 3 inches in previous years, weather plays a pretty significant factor here
Tournament Notes
- The Snake Pit (holes 16-18) is one of the hardest 3 hole stretches on tour with 16 as one of the top 10 hardest holes on tour. Prior to 2024 when Peter Malnati shot -3 on it through the week and last year when Hovland was -1 on it, no winner had ever played it better than even par
- 15 of the last 18 winners here had a T10 that season leading up to their victory (Taylor Moore in 2023 had a T11)
- 16 of the last 18 winners played this event at least twice before winning
- The last four winners of this event played THE PLAYERS the week before and 3 of the last 4 made the cut (Hovland missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last year before winning here), but none were in contention
- 11 of the last 15 winners here finished T45 or better in their last start before the Valspar
- 12 of the last 18 winners were not first time winners on the PGA Tour
- Each of the 12 winners prior to Taylor Moore in 2023 were T55 or better in bogie avoidance for the year leading up to their win
- 10 of the last 15 winners were T40 or better in approach for the year leading up to their win
- 12 of the last 18 winners were T45 or better in Par 5 scoring for the year leading up to their win
- 4 of the last 8 winners here had a MC at this event the year prior to winning, so don’t put as much stock into some MCs here since its a very hard course
- The cut line has only been under par once here since 2003
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, Bogie Avoidance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (23.7%), 200+ yards (23.3%), 150-175 yards (20.4%)
Field
133 golfers – Surprisingly a solid field again like it was last year
Defending Champion: Viktor Hovland (-11)
Runner Up Last Year: Justin Thomas (-10)
One and Done: Brooks Koepka
One and Done Considerations: Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Matt Fitzpatrick
Players
Matt Fitzpatrick: 9800: +1500 – Has been solid to start this year, won in the fall at the DP World Tour Championship, coming off losing last week in his second place finish at THE PLAYERS, 2,41,24,14,9,63,1,32,21,5,5,6,17,32,8 finishes in his last 15 events, MC,5,MC finishes here, 19th in Approach, 63rd in SG: OTT, 37th in Good Drives Gained, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 25th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 19th in Par 4 Scoring, 94th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 110th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 123rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 45th in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 18th in Bogie Avoidance
Brooks Koepka: 9100: +2750 – Needs a win to get into the signature events and this weaker field feels like a good spot for him, his ballstriking has been fantastic since his return and he gained 8.17 strokes ballstriking last week at THE PLAYERS but his putting has been lousy, 13,9,MC,56 finishes since his return to the PGA Tour, 12,MC finishes his only times here in 2022 and 2014, 25th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 76th in Good Drives Gained, 74th in Par 3 Scoring, 38th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 28th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 15th in SG: ARG, 44th in Putting, 58th in Bogie Avoidance
Corey Conners: 9000: +3400 – Lines up nicely for this course with elite approach play and very good driving especially on accuracy, solid course history with 8,21,16 finishes here, 13,33,37,70,MC,24,7,39,50,10,47,27,25,19 finishes in his last 14 events, 5th in Approach, 27th in SG: OTT, 11th in Good Drives Gained, 59th in Par 3 Scoring, 103rd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 3rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 42nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 37th in Proximity 200+ yards, 115th in SG: ARG, 95th in Putting, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 8900: +3600 – He’s playing fantastic golf with elite iron play this year, 27,24, 6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 15 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, missed the cut his only time here last year, 14th in Approach, 50th in SG: OTT, 104th in Good Drives Gained, 28th in Par 3 Scoring, 37th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 67th in Par 4 Scoring, 107th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 40th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 5th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 121st in SG: ARG, 81st in Putting, 29th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I cashed in on Sam Burns at +2200 here in 2022 and my favorite pick of Tommy Fleetwood in 2023 finished T3.
Bets
Outrights
.7u Matt Fitzpatrick (+1500)
.5u Brooks Koepka (+2750)
.4u Corey Conners (+3400)
.4u Nicolai Hojgaard (+3600)
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