Finally got my first winner of the year after a ton of second places with Matt Fitzpatrick last week at the Valspar. Let’s make it two outright in a a row as the PGA Tour heads to Memorial Park Golf Course for the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7475 yards, plays long for a Par 70 course, three Par 5s, five Par 3s, two of the Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field and the other one is 630 yards and should play as a three shot hole for most of the field, three of the Par 3s are long in the 200-235 yards range with the other two way shorter at 155 and 167, the Par 4s have a huge range of different layouts and five of them are over 490 yards, tree lined fairways but if you don’t miss wildly you could play between the trees, 1.5-2 inch overseeded Bermuda rough could be a bit penal between the fairway and the trees, only 21 bunkers on the course and just two water hazards in play on four holes, higher driving distance here vs. tour average (~290 vs. 283 yards), much lower driving accuracy here vs. tour average (~56% vs. 62) but that doesn’t matter much, lower GIR percentage vs. tour average (~63% vs. 66%), above average sized elevated poa over-seeded Bermuda greens with poa trivialis that are firm and severely sloped with crowned edges with small landing areas to have good scoring chances guarded by runoff areas, wind could play a big factor, in 2024 this course had the closest proximity from the rough on tour
Tournament Notes
- This event used to be a regular season event and was moved to the fall swing season in 2020, and then after a year of it not happening, it moved back to a regular season event in 2024
- This course has only hosted this event since 2020’
- This event is the last event where golfers could qualify to get into the Top 50 in OWGR to get into The Masters, if they don’t they have to win at the Valero Texas Open next week to get an invitation
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, SG: ARG
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (25.9%)
Field
133 golfers – Pretty solid field for a non-signature event
Defending Champion: Min Woo Lee (-20)
Last Year Runner Ups: Scottie Scheffler, Gary Woodland (-19)
One and Done: Chris Gotterup
One and Done Considerations: Brooks Koepka, Nicolai Hojgaard, Chris Gotterup
Players
Chris Gotterup: 9800: +2000 – Has already won twice this year at the Sony Open and the Waste Management (after Hideki fumbled that win away from me in the playoff), 11th in the field in ball speed, way better scrambling on tightly mowed surfaces than out of thick rough, great on Par 4s this season, T18 and T57 finishes here the last two years, 56,18,MC,37,1,18,1,40,10,33,54,10,3,1,21,26,23 finishes in his last 17 events, 10th in Approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Distance, 74th in Par 3 Scoring, 81st in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 39th in Par 4 Scoring, 40th in Proximity 200+ yards, 35th in SG: ARG, 82nd in Putting, 58th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 35th in Birdie+ Gained, 27th in Bogie Avoidance
Brook Koepka: 9600: +2400 – Needs a win to get into the signature events and this weaker field feels like a good spot for him, his ballstriking has been fantastic since his return and he gained 8.17 strokes ballstriking at THE PLAYERS but his putting has been lousy, can bomb the ball, he was a consultant on the redesign on this course a few years ago before going to LIV, MC,T5,MC finishes here in 2021,2020, and 2016, 18,13,9,MC,56 finishes since his return to the PGA Tour, 5th in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 34th in Driving Distance, 35th in Par 3 Scoring, 36th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 60th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Proximity 200+ yards, 33rd in SG: ARG, 114th in Putting, 125th in Opportunities Gained, 124th in Birdie+ Gained, 126th in Bogie Avoidance
Kurt Kitayama: 9300: +3500 – Won last year at the 3M, doesn’t really have to worry about accuracy off the tee here and can bomb it, iron play is fantastic and has only lost on approach just once this past year, 14th in ball speed, has gained strokes putting in for of his last five events, MC,18,2,48,24,MC,40,15,48,19,9,31,1,14,5 finishes in his last 15 events, T39 and T36 finishes here the last two years, 9th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 11th in Driving Distance, 106th in Par 3 Scoring, 56th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 83rd in SG: ARG, 84th in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 74th in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 9200: +3125 – First in my model this week with his excellent T2G play and he’s popping a ton on leaderboards so far this year, can crush the ball off the tee, 55,27,24,6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 16 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, missed the cut his only time here last year, 4th in Approach, 56th in SG: OTT, 19th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 61st in SG: ARG, 32nd in Putting, 77th in Opportunities Gained, 58th in Birdie+ Gained, 27th in Bogie Avoidance, going to keep betting him every week till he wins
Adam Scott: 9000: +4500 – Playing pretty well to start the year and pops on my model, 56,11,4,30,24,40,5,7,30,27,38,55 finishes in his last twelve events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, T54,T32,MC finishes here in 2021,2020, and 2017, 2nd in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 31st in Driving Distance, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 24th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 73rd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 102nd in SG: ARG, 77th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 16th in Birdie+ Gained, 35th in Bogie Avoidance
Jesper Svensson: 6800: +11000 – Pops in my model as a longer shot with great stats to line up for this course and excellent driving, T27 finish his only time here last year, MC,8,MC,MC,MC,38,51,14,MC,15,48,MC,14,16 finishes in his last 14 events, 18th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Driving Distance, 84th in Par 3 Scoring, 84th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 77th in Par 4 Scoring, 18th in Proximity 200+ yards, 29th in SG: ARG, 134th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdie+ Gained, 60th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Guys starting on 1 have a significant advantage on Showdown slates this week, with 8-9-10 all having a birdie rate of over 12%
- This is the first event that I’m using the Rabbit Hole tool rather than Fantasy National, so I’m using a slightly different stat in my model of Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet rather than the old Opportunities Gained stat, we’ll see how it goes
- I missed some better numbers on Monday before the Scottie WD, but likely would have bet those guys in the non-Scottie market anyways if he was playing so no real difference there
Bets
Outrights
.5u Chris Gotterup (+2000)
.5u Brooks Koepka (+2400)
.5u Nicolai Hojgaard (+3125)
.3u Kurt Kitayama (+3500)
.3u Adam Scott (+4500)
.1u Jesper Svensson (+11000)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 