Heading into The Masters next week, this week the PGA Tour heads to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open with golfers’ last chance to get in! Let’s hit the winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7438 yards, Greg Norman design (with Sergio Garcia), overseeded Bermuda grass overseeded with poa-trivialis throughout, plays very long, the Par 5s are long, all of them around 600 yards with only one reachable in two by most golfers (Par 5s here play the hardest of any course on tour), three of the Par 3s are over 183 yards, 64 bunkers, water hazards in play on three holes, average driving distance here is longer than tour average by a few yards since guys don’t care to hit the fairways, very hard to hit narrow tree lined fairways (~55% driving accuracy vs. ~62% tour average) that get more narrow with large bunkers in play in the landing zones, shorter rough isn’t too penal to get out of, native areas will be very hard to get out of if you miss the fairways wildly, very hard to hit greens (~59% GIR vs. tour average ~66%), second-lowest GIR % on tour behind just Riviera, average speed greens that are multitiered with lots of undulation, closely mowed edges of greens (like Augusta), it can get very windy here with the prevailing winds more to the players backs on longer holes and in their face on the shorter ones, besides TPC Sawgrass this course has the most triple bogies on tour, the front nine is much more difficult than the back nine
Tournament Notes
- There isn’t as much of a difference between SG: OTT and Approach as there usually is, so you need to be good off the tee here and SG: OTT becomes more influential the higher the finish
- Last chance to get into The Masters by winning this tournament, this is only the sixth year that it’s been the tournament the week before The Masters
- 8 of the last 12 winners at the event prior to The Masters weren’t already in and were the final qualifier into the field
- Historically one of the 10 hardest courses on tour but has played a bit easier the past few years
- 5 of the last 11 winners here were first time winners on tour
- Besides Landry in 2018 who didn’t play the year before he won and Conners in 2023 (who had a T35 the year before but was a previous winner here with elite course history), 6 of the last 10 winners have a T30 the year before here (Spieth in 2021 was technically 2 years since the 2020 tournament was cancelled because of covid, but still fits this trend since he came T30 in 2019 here)
- 9 of the last 15 winners here (since they started playing this event at this course in 2010) were the 54 hole leaders (Conners was solo 2nd in 2023)
- Prior to JJ Spaun in 2022 (who was 4th T2G and gained strokes in every facet of the game), the prior four winners here were 4th, 1st, 1st and 2nd in approach for the week and the last three years, Brian Harman (2025) was 2nd in approach for the week, Akshay Bhatia (2024) led the field in approach for the week, and Corey Conners (2023) led the field in approach for the week
- In 2024 Akshay Bhatia went wire-to-wire on his way to the playoff win
- 2024 was the first time that this event went to a playoff in 14 years since this course has hosted it
- The cut line had never been under par here until last year when it was -1 for the first time
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (20.1%), 200+ yards (18.9%), 175-200 yards (18.3%)
Field
132 golfers – Decent field strength
Defending Champion: Brian Harman (-9)
Runner Up Last Year: Ryan Gerard (-6)
One and Done: Si Woo Kim
One and Done Considerations: Si Woo Kim
Players
Tommy Fleetwood: 10500: +1800 – Easily the best golfer in the field and he’s playing great this season especially with his irons, T62 and T7 finishes here the last two years, 8,49,7,4,41,25,3,2,1,21,46,1,4,3,16,32,2,MC,16,4,41,4,7 finishes in his last 23 events on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, 12th in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 10th in Fairways Gained, 24th in Proximity 200+ yards, 18th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 9th in SG: ARG, 14th in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained, 21st in Birdies+ Gained, 34th in Bogey Avoidance, 5th in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 1st in Good Drives Gained, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 25th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 110th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 19th in Proximity 200+ yards, 10th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 33rd in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained, 24th in Bogie Avoidance
Si Woo Kim: 9600: +2500 – Playing solid golf this year and has been consistently gaining stroke T2G every week, MC,T39,T13,T23,T4,T45,T22,MC finishes here, 50,13,34,45,3,2,6,11,3,4,21,20,5,19,14 finishes in his last 15 events, 11th in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drives Gained, 120th in Par 5 Scoring, 61st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 70th in Proximity 200+ yards, 23rd in SG: ARG, 122nd in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained, 70th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Hideki Matsuyama: 9300: +2250 – Playing well this year and should’ve already won this year when he blew it on 18 and the playoff at Waste Management, his approach numbers have been fantastic to start the year and he only has one finish worse than 28th since last June, 27,41,28,8,2,11,13,1,20,29,26,17,19,16,13,30,42,38,36,MC,17,21 finishes in his last 22 events, MC,T7,T15,WD,T30 finishes here the last five years, 3rd in Approach, 88th in SG: OTT, 43rd in Good Drives Gained, 50th in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 63rd in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdie+ Gained, 13th in Bogie Avoidance
Sepp Straka: 9200: +2600 – Maps out nicely for this course with elite iron play especially recently, won several times last year in way tougher fields than this one, T22,T67,MC finishes here, 8,13,50,2,18,MC,3,17,52,7,45,MC,3,MC,1,13,MC,28,14,5,11 finishes in his last 21 events, 7th in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 31st in Good Drives Gained, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 11th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 28th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 32nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 113th in SG: ARG, 30th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 17th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I hit the winner on Corey Conners here in 2023, cashing the outright and getting the win on my One & Done pick
Bets
Outrights
.6u Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)
.5u Hideki Matsuyama (+2250)
.5u Si Woo Kim (+2500)
.5u Sepp Straka (+2600)
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