I just keep losing on the NHL, going a pathetic 2-6 last night to drop another 2.24 units. Let’s see if I can crush tonight’s big eleven game slate, with a lot of key games.
Since I’m sick of losing, I’m taking a bit of a different approach today than my usual way of going through each game. Essentially I’m going to just talk through what I think of each game rather than doing my full write ups of them. We’ll see how this approach goes. I’m also mainly staying off player props today. I’ve been losing way too much money on those and I don’t think the odds on them are worth betting at the high volume I have been all season.
Canadiens vs. Panthers (7:00)
I like the Habs to win here at home and tie the Lightning (for now) and Sabres in a tie for first place in the Atlantic. I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I considered parlaying Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky to each get a point for half a unit, but I’m staying off it at -125.
Senators vs. Lightning (7:00)
I’d lean the Lightning win here on the road, even in the second half of a back to back coming off a 4-2 loss on the road to my Sabres last night, to take first place alone in the Atlantic Division regardless of the result of tonight’s Hab’s game, but don’t think they’re worth betting here with Ottawa needing every point they can get to get into the playoffs. I’d lean the over as well, but not enough to bet that either. I will still take Nikita Kucherov to get over 1.5 points though for half a unit after he had just one in Buffalo last night. I considered parlaying Stutzle and Tkachuk with Kucherov to each get a point, but I’ll lay off it.
Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Both of these teams are two points back from the Senators for the second Wild Card spot in the East, but they’re both struggling a ton as of late. I considered a bunch of bets in this game. I’d slightly lean Detroit wins at home, but the -170 is way too expensive. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5. I considered a handful of player props, mainly a parlay on Werenski, Marchenko, DeBrincat, and Raymond to each get a point, but I’ll lay off this game entirely.
Devils vs. Flyers (7:00)
Both of these teams are playing much better as of late. I’d lean the Flyers win here at home as they sit in third place in the tight race for the final playoff spot in the Metro Division and the second Wild Card spot in the East, but don’t like them enough to bet it. I’d lean the under, but not enough to even consider that. The only player prop I like in this one is Jack Hughes to get a point, but he’s way too expensive on his own, and I don’t like anyone else enough to parlay him with.
Hurricanes vs. Bruins (7:00)
This should be a great game here. I like the Canes to win here any home to bounce back from their 6-3 loss in Ottawa on Saturday and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it with the Bruins trending under and both previous games between these teams being low scoring. I considered parlaying David Pastrnak, Seth Jarvis, and Sebastian Aho to each get a point here, but the +128 is low enough that I’m fine staying off it.
Blues vs. Avalanche (8:00)
I was pretty shocked by the Avs losing at home to the Blues on Sunday in the first half of this home and home, especially after Colorado blew out St. Louis 6-1 in the first game they played on New Year’s Eve. I like the best team in the league to answer back here and I’ll take them for a unit at a much cheaper price than I expected at -155. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5. I considered a parlay of Necas and MacKinnon to each get 2 points, but that’s not worth betting since it’s been several games since they’ve both done it and the odds on that are garbage. Then I considered just betting the Nate Dogg to do it, but he’s barely hit the two point mark for the last few weeks. I’ll just stick with the moneyline.
Stars vs. Flames (8:00)
Huge mismatch when you look at this one, but the Stars just aren’t playing great lately. I do like Dallas to win though, but I’ll go a little more cautiously here and take the Stars in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet that at 6.5. I considered parlaying Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, and Wyatt Johnston to each get a point for half a unit, but Robertson and Johnston are struggling right now in this lousy run for Dallas and with that parlay just -120, not worth it. Being selective on these.
Wild vs. Kraken (8:00)
Huge mismatch here. The Wild are playing excellent again and are now just two point behind the Stars, who are struggling right now to get home ice in the first round. The Kraken have ben horrendous, and they’re in the second half of a back to back. I love Minnesota here and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5 with the offensive struggles for Seattle and how well Minnesota’s playing on the back end, and neither previous game had more than five goals. I considered a prop parlay on Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Quinn Hughes to each get a point, but it isn’t worth it at -150, especially since all three of them together haven’t all gotten a point in a game since March 12th.
Mammoth vs. Oilers (9:30)
Really good game here in the West between these two playoff teams that have a chance at playing each other in the first round if Edmonton ends up winning the weak Pacific Division, with the Mammoth likely in the first Wild Card. They’re both playing well right now. The Oilers won both previous games between these teams and I’d slightly lean Utah avoids the season sweep at home, but the side on this one’s pretty much a toss up to me, so I’ll stay off it. I’d lean the over, but not quite enough to take that with the Oilers trending under lately. The player props I considered here quite a bit were a parlay on Connor McDavid and Clayton Keller to each get a point, but that’s too expensive at -180, and then I considered McDavid getting over 1.5 points, but that’s – money and he hasn’t gotten more than a point in his last three games. He might be due for a big night, but that’s not worth betting in this approach.
Canucks vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
Huge mismatch here with Vegas playing really well their last three games and the Canucks being an auto-fade as the worst team in the league. I’ll take the Golden Knights in regulation for a unit. Not a whole lot of thought needed on this one. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5. This was probably the player prop parlay I considered the most today on Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner to each get a point, but I’ll lay off it at -115, I’m fine with missing out on half a unit if all three guys make the score sheet (which they should).
Ducks vs. Predators (10:00)
Big game here in the Western Conference playoff races. The Ducks are struggling right now, on a five game losing streak and now tied with the Oilers for first in the Pacific, with Vegas just a point behind them. The Preds are in the second half of a back to back tonight after a key loss to the Kings in a shootout on the road last night, a point back from LA for the second Wild Card spot in the West. I’d very slightly lean Anaheim wins at home, just cause the Preds are on the road in the second half of a back to back, but I’m not touching it. I’d lean the over, but at 6.5, juiced up to -120, I don’t think that’s worth it either. I considered a few combos of Filip Forsberg with either Leo Carlsson or Troy Terry to get a point, mainly since Forsberg at -235 to get a point is too expensive on his own, but both of those guys have been too inconsistent lately, so I’ll stay off this game completely.
Bets
1u Canadiens in regulation (-155)
.5u Nikita Kucherov over 1.5 points (+105)
.5u Hurricanes ML (-185)
1u Avalanche ML (-155)
.5u Stars in regulation (-150)
1u Wild in regulation (-150)
1u Golden Knights in regulation (-160)
Record: 902-1004-2 (-98.14 units)
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