Major championship season begins as the best players in the world all head to Augusta National for the best week in golf, The Masters, a tradition unlike any other. Let’s hit the winner!

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Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7555 yards which was lengthened a bit over the last few years, lush tree lined fairways with a lot of undulation which leads to the course playing longer than it is with above average width with bunkers in the landing areas, 44 bunkers, six water hazards in play on five holes, rye grass, almost no rough, soft pine straw that you could hit out of as long as you don’t have a tree in the way, six of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, 13/14 par 4’s: you’re hitting driver, two years ago the 11th hole got lengthened by 15 yards and a bunch of rough got removed from the course, lots of changes in elevation on the course, experience here matters, first timers don’t win here, bombers have an advantage, right to left draw ball flight works best here (comes naturally for leftys, Spieth draws the ball well also), easy to hit fairways (~68% vs. ~61% tour average), hard to hit greens vs. tour average (~60% vs. ~66%), average 65 square foot firm and FAST multi-tiered bent grass greens with a ton of undulation, greens are average to above average in size but that is misleading since most greens slope heavily from back to front with difficult landing areas, tons of slope and undulation on very fast greens, most greens are elevated and have large run offs and collection areas or bunkers around them that are tough to get up and down from, Augusta has SubAir greens and fairways with a ton of drainage on the course, rain doesn’t effect it and isn’t much of a factor here like it usually is on other courses on tour even when there is a ton of rain

Tournament Notes

• Course history is most predictive at Augusta, more than any other course on tour by a significant margin
• No winner has come from outside 50:1 odds in the last 13 years
• Since 2012, Bubba Watson (#18 in the OWGR that year) was the lowest ranked player to win The Masters. Even Danny Willett who was 100:1 in 2016 when he won, was ranked 12th in the World
• 24 of the last 26 winners were ranking in the Top 30 in OWGR (this trend could be off now because LIV Golfers haven’t gotten OWGR points since the British Open in 2022 and those rankings are now completely meaningless). 10 of the last 10 winners were ranked Top 25 in OWGR, 8 of the last 10 were ranked Top 15 in OWGR, and 6 of the last 10 were ranked Top 10 in OWGR
• The last time a first timer won the Masters was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Aberg gave it a pretty good run in 2025, finishing solo second (-7) behind Scottie (-11), three strokes ahead of the guys T3
• Except for Patrick Reed in 2018, the past 28 champions made the cut at The Masters the previous year
• 25 of the last 28 winners finished 38th or better at the Masters the year before they won
• 16 of the last 18 winners had finished 22nd or higher in a previous Masters
• 8 of the last 10 winners had a previous T10 at Augusta prior to winning
• 9 of the last 10 winners had played The Masters at least three times and 7 of the last 10 winners had played The Masters at least five times
• 15 of the last 16 winners had at least a T8 in at least one of their seven events prior to their win at The Masters
• All of the last 10 winners made the cut in their last start prior to winning
• Besides Hideki in 2021, all of the last 15 Masters winners have had a win or 2 Top 5s in their five events leading up to Augusta
• 9 of the last 10 winners had a T10 in one of their three previous starts before winning The Masters
• 9 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 T10s in the season leading up to their win at The Masters
• 9 of the last 10 winners had a T10 in one of their three previous starts before winning The Masters
• Besides Hideki in 2019 who only had one T15, every other winner of the last 14 years had at least two T15 finishes in their three tournaments leading into The Masters
• 14 of the last 16 winners had a T35 or better in their last start prior to The Masters (Rahm in 2023 had a T39 but three wins and five T7s in his five events before that T39)
• 15 of the last 17 winners had at least 4 previous career wins
• 15 of the last 17 winners had won a tournament on U.S. soil within the two years leading up to their Masters win
• 14 of the last 16 winners had a T6 in a major within the two years leading up to their Masters win
• 8 of the last 10 winners had already won that season or in the fall swing season prior to winning The Masters
• No winner has repeated since Tiger in 2002 (along with Nick Faldo in 1990 and Jack in 1966)
• Jack was oldest player to ever win the Masters, at 46 years old
• 20 of the last 23 winners were aged 27 or older
• Besides Hideki in 2021 and Rahm technically in 2023 (although he was incredible T2G all that season besides API the week prior), all the rest of the last 13 winners besides those two gained a minimum of 13.4 strokes T2G in their two prior events leading up to their victory at Augusta
• Each of the last 16 winners were inside the Top 30 in SG: T2G leading up to The Masters
• Each of the last 14 winners had gained at least 18 strokes T2G in their four events prior to The Masters.
• 11 of the last 13 winners were inside the Top 7 in SG: T2G leading up to The Masters
• 9 of the last 11 winners ranked Top 5 the week they won in Approach
• Driving is very important here. Rory was 7th in SG: OTT last year. Scheffler and Rahm were second in the field the previous two years, Scottie was 9th during his first win, and Dustin Johnson led the field when he won in the fall in 2020.
• 14 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the T40 in Par 5 Scoring for the year they won
• The last eight winners have been a cumulative 76 under par on the Par 5s, so scoring on those is very important
• Bad putting is neutralized here because everyone will struggle on these greens, with 14 of the last 18 winners ranking outside the T50 in putting for the year they won
• 15 of the last 17 winners ranked inside the T50 for the season in Driving Distance in the year leading up to their Masters win
• Each of the last 13 winners had gained at least 0.25 strokes ARG in the 16 rounds prior to their Masters win
• Twelve of the top 13 in Good Drives Gained at The Masters in 2023 finished T20. In 2024, nine of the top 12 in Good Drives Gained at The Masters finished T16. Last year, the top 5 in Good Drives Gained at The Masters finished T21.
• Prior to Rory last year, who was T27 after Round 1, the previous seven winners here were within four shots of the lead after Thursday (last year Scheffler was just a stroke back, Rahm in 2023 and DJ in the November edition held a share of the Day 1 lead)
• No golfer has won the Masters three times in the span of four years since Jack Nicklaus in the 60s
• In the last eight years, the defending champion has only finished inside the T30 four times
• Besides Wyndham Clark and JJ Spaun, every major winner the last eight years has had at least a T2 finish at a major previously
• There isn’t publicly available specific strokes gained data for Augusta
• The only three golfers in the field that fit all the trends of previous winners are Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Par 5 Scoring

Main proximity distance range: 175-200 yards (but a lot of elevation changes here make that not as accurate as other courses)

Corollary Courses

• Emirates Golf Club (Omega Dubai Desert Challenge) – Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia won this and the Masters in the same year
• Riviera CC (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success and the course maps out similar, with a lot of lefty success there as well
• Quail Hallow Club (Wells Fargo Championship)
• Correlated courses are not as much of a factor that I’ll be looking at with so much course history at Augusta

Field

91 golfers with all the stars leading both the PGA Tour and the LIV Golf

Smallest field for a major and you could cut out a good 20-30 players (Sr. past champs etc.) that just aren’t gonna win – It doesn’t matter that Bernhard Langer is the #1 Sr. in the world…he’s not winning The Masters

Cut: Top 50 and ties (no longer anyone within 10 strokes of the lead like its been in the past, that hasn’t been the case since 2019)

Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy (-11 in a playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Justin Rose (-11)

One and Done: Xander Schauffele

One and Done Considerations: Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm

Players

Xander Schauffele: 9600: +1750 – Fits every trend of previous winners here, over the last several years only Scottie Scheffler has gained more strokes T2G than him here, two time major champion with his wins in the 2024 PGA Championship and Open Championship and has T20 finishes in 14 of his last 15 majors, has gained an average of 6.5 strokes on approach in his last two events and led the field in approach at THE PLAYERS, has gained over 6 strokes T2G in three of his last four events, his issue this year is that he can’t put four good rounds together with three great rounds (including shooting 65s in three of his last four events) and one terrible one, fantastic course history here with T8,8,T10,MC,T3,T17,T2,T50 finishes here, won in the fall at the Baycurrent Classic in Japan, playing great lately and looks to be back in form after his rib injury last year with 4,3,24,7,19,41,MC,1,28,22,7,8 finishes in his last twelve events, 33rd in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 60th in Good Drives Gained, 6th in Driving Distance, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 25th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 45th in SG: ARG, 43rd in Putting, 66th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Bogie Avoidance

Tommy Fleetwood: 9300: +2350 – Fits every trend of previous winners here, finally got his first win on US Soil last year at the Tour Championship and won in India in the fall in the DP World Tour playoffs, led the field at THE PLAYERS in SG:T2G but hasn’t been able to hit a put in his last three events but gained strokes putting in ten of his eleven events prior to that, has gained strokes putting his in three of the last four years, over the last two years only Scottie Scheffler has gained more strokes in Signature Events and FedEx Cup Playoff events than him, has seven T5s in majors, 10,8,49,7,4,41,25,3,2,1,21,46,1,4,3,16,32,2,MC,16,4,41,4,7 finishes in his last 24 events on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, T21,T3,33,T14,T46,T19,T36,T17,MC finishes here, 11th in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 63rd in Driving Distance, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 76th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 9th in SG: ARG (and leads the PGA Tour this season), 11th in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 28th in Bogie Avoidance

Cameron Young: 9200: +2100 – Coming off his win at THE PLAYERS with 1,3,7,55,41,22,10,9,4,11,5,1,MC,46,52,4,4,25,47,7 finishes in his last 21 events, elite off the tee and has gained strokes OTT in his last eleven events, has gained strokes on Approach, T2G, OTT, and putting in each of his last three events, has two T5s in majors (T2 at the 2022 Open Championship and T4 last year at the US Open), MC,T9,T7,MC finishes here the last four years, 39th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 79th in Good Drives Gained, 16th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 20th in Par 5 Scoring, 59th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 40th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 42nd in Opportunities Gained, 25th in Bogie Avoidance

Matt Fitzpatrick: 8700: +2200 – Fits every trend of previous winners here, already got me to cash a win a few weeks ago at the Valspar after losing in his second place finish at THE PLAYERS with 1,2,41,24,14,9,63,1,32,21,5,5,6,17,32,8 finishes in his last 16 events, also beat Rory in a playoff in the fall at the DP World Tour Championship, T40,T22,T10,T14,T34,T46,T21,T38,32,T7 finishes here and has gained strokes putting in 67.9% of his rounds here, 24th in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 29th in Good Drives Gained, 33rd in Driving Distance, 25th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 12th in Par 5 Scoring, 80th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 37th in SG: ARG, 6th in Putting, 46th in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Bogie Avoidance

Akshay Bhatia: 7800: +5500 – Won a month ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, API where he won was the only time in his last five starts that he lost strokes OTT, has gained T2G in each of his last six events, lefty which gives an advantage at Augusta and his game lines up nicely to here, seems to have addressed his short game problems this year, went to India two weeks ago to play the Hero Indian Open where he missed the cut with MC,13,1,16,6,3,MC,MC14,MC,11,26,6,WD,25,30,26,54,MC,16,22 finishes in his last 21 events, has only lost strokes putting once in his eight rounds here with T42 and T35 finishes here the last two years, 6th in Approach, 57th in SG: OTT, 73rd in Good Drives Gained, 69th in Driving Distance, 19th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 25th in Par 5 Scoring, 14th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 82nd in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 81st in Bogie Avoidance, also taking his T7 each way

Nicolai Hojgaard: 7500: +7800 – He’s been fantastic T2G all year and I keep betting him every week which isn’t stopping this week even though it’s a major, the only player this year who ranks inside the Top 30 in driving, approach, chipping, and putting, crushes it off the tee, MC and T16 finishes here the last two years, in 2024 as a debutant he was in contention in the third round but collapsed late on Saturday and then struggled Sunday in his T14 finish, in his six rounds here he gained strokes OTT in five of six rounds and gained over a stroke ARG in four of those six rounds, coming off a second place finish at the Houston Open a couple weeks ago with 2,55,27,24,6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 17 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, 22nd in Approach, 43rd in SG: OTT, 71st in Good Drives Gained, 12th in Driving Distance, 60th in Par 4 Scoring, 71st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 79th in SG: ARG, 63rd in Putting, 47th in Opportunities Gained, 34th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking his T5 (including ties)

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Good Drives Gained (5%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (10%)

Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• May want to leave salary cap on the table
• Need to get 6/6 in the cut at a minimum to cash, need to hit 6 T10s with the winner to win big money
• Making cuts here should not be a factor in lineup construction and will almost play closer to a no cut event on DK
• Need scoring points as well as placing points
• Prices vary from book to book so as usual, make sure you shop them across every book you have available
• A lot of books will also have Winner without Scheffler and Winner without the Big Guns markets available, which are worth shopping on some guys
• In One & Done contests, the elite two LIV guys that you can’t use for anything other than majors are viable options (Rahm and Bryson)

Bets

Outrights

1u Xander Schauffele (+1715)

.5u Cameron Young (+2100)

.5u Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)

.5u Tommy Fleetwood (+2350)

.2u Akshay Bhatia (+5500)

.2u Nicolai Hojgaard (+7800)

T7 Each Ways

.2u Akshay Bhatia (+1100)

T5s (Including Ties)

.2u Nicolai Hojgaard (+1050)

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