Third winning day in a row for me on Thursday night in the NHL after I changed my approach, going 8-7 to win a slight .2 unit profit. We’ll take it. After a night off, today almost every team is in action for the last Saturday of the regular season, let’s finish it off hot!
Bruins vs. Lightning (12:30)
Important game for both of these playoff bound teams in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins can clinch their spot in the playoffs with a win in their last three games, but they’re coming into this matinee on a four game losing streak after their second overtime loss in a row, losing 6-5 in OT in Carolina on Tuesday. They’ve far exceeded my expectations this year and are 43-26-10 on the season. The Lightning are in third place in the Atlantic with a 48-25-6 record, two points behind Montreal for home ice in the first round, losing 2-1 in Montreal on Thursday, giving up the game winner with only 1:04 left in regulation after tying it up just 47 seconds before that. Tampa’s 3-0 this year against Boston, winning 4-3 on the road in the first week of the season, 6-5 at home in a shootout in February, and then 3-1 at home last week. I’d lean the Bolts complete the season sweep here on the road, but I’m not touching it. I’d lean the under slightly, but not enough to bet that either. I was going to start my day with a parlay on Kucherov and Pasta to each get a point, but at -205, can’t touch that.
Islanders vs. Senators (1:00)
Big game here in the Eastern Conference Wild Card race. The Islanders are three points back from the Sens for that second Wild Card spot, but they’re also just a point out of the playoffs behind the Flyers for third in the Metro. The Isles are struggling a bit right now, ending a four game losing streak on Thursday with a 5-3 win at home against the Leafs to improve to 43-31-5 on the season. Ottawa’s been hot lately, on a three game win streak after blowing out the Panthers 5-1 on Thursday night at home to improve to 42-27-10. They’re in the second Wild Card spot with a 42-27-10 record on the year, and are just two points back from the Bruins for the first Wild Card. These teams split their first two games in Ottawa, with the Isles winning 5-4 on the road in October and the Sens answering with a 3-2 win at home last month. I like the Senators to win again here on Long Island, and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I considered parlaying Tim Stutzle (who screwed me without a point on Thursday) and Brady Tkachuk to each get a point, but I’ll lay off it.
Penguins vs. Capitals (3:00)
Fun game in the Metro Division as Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin will face off for the 100th time in their careers for the first half of a back to back home and home. The Penguins have been a fantastic surprise this year, with their spot in the playoffs locked up, in second place in the Metro Division. They’re 41-22-16, on a three game win streak coming off a 5-2 win in Jersey on Thursday and have won five of their last six games. The Caps haven’t been great, but they’re not eliminated from playoff contention yet, three point back from Philly for third place in the Metro with a 40-30-9 record. They’ve been a bit inconsistent lately, but have gone 8-3-2 in their last 13 games, coming off shutting out the Leafs 4-0 on the road on Wednesday (easy win for me). Pittsburgh won the first game between these teams 5-3 at home back in November. I’d lean the Pens win again here at home, but not enough to bet it. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for a unit. I considered a few player props here on Sid, Geno, and Ovi, but don’t like those combos enough to pay the prices on them, so I’ll just stick with the over on this game.
Kings vs. Oilers (4:00)
Important game for both of these teams in the Pacific Division. The Kings have been playing well in their playoff push, currently a point ahead of the Preds for the second Wild Card spot in the West with a 33-26-19 record. They’re on a three game win streak, coming off a pretty easy 4-1 win at home on Thursday against the Canucks and have picked up at least a point in 13 of their last 16 games. The Oilers are a point ahead of the Golden Knights and Ducks, in first place in this terrible division with a 40-29-10 record. After two losses in a row, they bounced back on Wednesday with a 5-2 win in San Jose, with Connor McDavid putting on a show with a hat trick and two assists. These teams have played complete opposite styles of hockey, with a good defense and terrible offense for the Kings and a good offense but terrible play on the back end for Edmonton. These teams split their first two games, both winning on the road, with a 4-3 shootout win for the Kings in January and then an 8-1 blowout win for the Oilers in LA in February. I’d slightly lean the Oilers win here on the road, but I’m not touching it. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet that either. I will take a player prop parlay here though for half a unit on McDavid, Artemi Panarin, and Adrian Kempe to each get a point.
Red Wings vs. Devils (5:00)
This Eastern Conference matchup isn’t great. The Red Wings are on the brink of elimination, three points back from the Senators for the second Wild Card spot in the East. They ended a three game losing streak with a key 6-3 win at home on Thursday against the Flyers, improving to 41-29-9. The Devils have been eliminated already, with a 40-36-3 record, coming off two losses in a row, losing 5-2 at home against the Penguins on Thursday. These teams split their first two games in Jersey, with the Devils winning 4-3 at home in November and the Red Wings answering with a 3-0 shutout win on the road last month. I’d lean Detroit wins here at home to hang onto the slight chance of making it, but I’m not betting them. I’d also lean the over, but note noguh to bet it at 6.5. I considered a few player prop parlays here on points for Jack Hughes, Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond, and Dylan Larkin, but don’t think any of them are worth it, so I’ll lay off this game completely.
Blackhawks vs. Blues (5:00)
Not a great game here in the Central. The Blackhawks are horrible, in last place in the division with a 27-37-14 record. They’re coming off a 7-2 blowout loss at home to the Hurricanes and have just one win in their last eight games. The Blues are comping off two losses in a row after a key 3-2 loss at home to the Jets on Thursday, likely eliminated from the playoffs, now seven points back from the Kings for the second Wild Card in the West with a 33-33-12 record. Not a chance everything falls perfectly for them to get in. Chicago’s 2-1 this year against the Blues, winning 8-3 in St. Louis in the first week of the season, then losing 3-2 on the road in December, and answering with a 7-3 blowout at home in January. I like the Blues to answer back here and tie up the season series and I’ll take them for half a unit on the road. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Predators vs. Wild (5:00)
This should be a fun game here in the Central Division. The Preds are a point back from the Kings for the second Wild Card spot in the West with a 37-32-10 record. They’re coming off a 4-1 loss in Utah on Thursday and have a 3-1-1 record in their last five games. The Wild are in third place in the division with a 45-22-12 record, just playing for home ice in the first round, four points back from Dallas, who they lost 5-4 to on the road on Thursday to end a four game win streak. Minnnesota’s 2-0-1 this year against the Preds with all three games getting decided in overtime, winning 3-2 at home in November, losing 3-2 in Nashville in December, and then answer with a 6-5 win on the road in Smashville in February. I’d lean the Wild bounce back with a win here on the road, but expect the Preds to play with desperation to get in, so I’ll stay off it. I’d lean the over slightly, but not enough to bet that either. I like Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes, and Filip Forsberg to all get points here, but don’t think any of those parlays would be worth it, so I’ll stay off this game completely.
Stars vs. Rangers (5:00)
Huge mismatch in this cross conference game. The Stars are fantastic, four points ahead of the Wild for home ice in the first round, in second place in the Metro with a 47-20-12 record. After a bit of a slump, they’ve won three of their last four games, beating Minnesota 5-4 at home on Thursday in a big game. The Rangers are awful, the worst team in the Eastern Conference with a 33-37-9 record. They have played better as of late though, with five wins in their last seven games, coming off a 5-3 loss at home to my Sabres on Wednesday where they actually looked like the better team through the first two periods. New York surprisingly won the first game between these teams 3-2 in overtime at home back in December. I love the Stars to answer back here and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. The total’s a complete toss up to me. I’ll get a little bit cute here and parlay Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, and Mika Zibanejad to each get a point for half a unit.
Mammoth vs. Hurricanes (5:00)
Fun cross conference game here between these two playoff bound teams that have both been hot lately. The Mammoth have their Wild Card spot locked up, more than likely playing the winner of the Pacific Division in the first round. They’re 42-30-6 on the year, on a five game win streak with eight wins in their last eleven games, clinching their spot in the playoffs on Thursday with a 4-1 win at home against the Predators. The Hurricanes have first place in the Metro clinched with a 51-22-6 record, two points ahead of my Sabres for first overall in the Eastern Conference. Coming off a 7-2 blowout win in Chicago on Thursday, they’ve won been on fire and have won five of their last six games. Carolina won the first game between these teams 5-4 at home in January. I’d lean the Canes win here on the road again and think there’s some value on them as a +110 underdog, but I’ll lay off it. I love the over though, which I’ll take for a unit, expecting both teams to light the lamp. I wanted to parlay Clayton Keller with Sebastian Aho to each get a point, but it looks like Aho may be out tonight, with him listed as day to day and not having a points prop on any of the books. Keller’s way to expensive to bet on his own, so just sticking with the over here.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (7:00)
Lousy game here between the worst two teams in the Atlantic Division, both eliminated from playoff contention after they were both Cup contenders last year and Florida won back to back Cups. The Leafs are 32-33-14 in this season from hell, on a four game losing streak, coming off a 5-3 loss on Long Island on Thursday. The Panthers are on a four game losing streak as well, losing 5-1 in Ottawa on Thursday to fall to 37-38-4 on the year. I fully expect Florida to be a contender to extend their dynasty next year, but they just had way too many key injuries to pretty much their entire core this year. Toronto’s 2-1 this year against the Panthers, winning 4-1 on the road in December, 4-1 at home in January, and then getting blown out 5-1 in Sunrise in February. I’d slightly lean the Panthers win here on the road and would slightly lean the over, but not a chance I’m touching this game.
Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Kind of an interesting matchup here in the East. The Habs are one of the hottest teams in the league right now with ten wins in their last eleven games to get to second place in the Atlantic with a 47-22-10 record, two points ahead of the Lightning for home ice in the first round, coming off a late goal with 1:04 left in regulation, just 47 seconds after giving up the game tying goal. They’re also just two points behind my Sabres for first place in the Atlantic. The Blue Jackets are struggling right now, with just one win in their last eight games. On Thursday in a sloppy game for both teams through the first two periods, they got shut out 5-0 in Buffalo, giving up four goals in the third period, eliminating themselves from the Wild Card. They’re 39-28-12, but can still get in the playoffs, just two points back from the Flyers for third place in the Metro Division. These teams split their first two games, both winning at home, with a 4-3 Columbus win in a shootout in November, and the Canadiens answering back with a 2-1 win a few weeks ago. I like Montreal to tie the Sabres tonight for first place (well, I don’t like it as a Sabres fan, but I expect it). I’ll take the Habs for a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay the best line in hockey this year, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield (who hit 50 goals on Thursday), and Juraj Slafkovsky to each get a point for half a unit.
Jets vs. Flyers (7:00)
Not the most exciting cross conference game here, but it should be fun and matters a ton for both of these teams in the playoff race. The Jets are three points back from the Kings for the second Wild Card spot in the West, coming alive after the Olympics break to save their horrendous start to the season. They’re now 35-31-12 on the year, on a three game win streak with seven points in their last nine games, coming off a big 3-2 win in St. Louis on Thursday. The Flyers are 40-27-12, in third place in the Metro Division, a point ahead of the Isles, two points ahead of the Blue Jackets, and three ahead of the Capitals. They’ve been hot lately, coming off a 6-3 loss in Detroit on Thursday that ended a three game win streak, but have a 15-6-1 record in their last 22 games. Back in October, the Jets won the first game between these teams 5-2 on the road. This game’s a complete toss up to me, who knows who wins it. I’m not touching the side. I’d lean the under, but I don’t think it’s worth betting at 5.5. I like Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele to each get a point, but can’t bet it with that parlay at -200, so I’ll lay off this game entirely.
Kraken vs. Flames (7:00)
Horrible game here in the Pacific. The Kraken are pretty much eliminated from the playoffs with a 33-34-11 record, but ended a six game losing streak on Thursday night, erasing a 3-1 third period deficit to win 4-3 in a shootout at home against the Golden Knights, just their fourth win in their last 18 games. Calgary’s brutal, out of the playoffs with a 32-27-9 record with just one win in their last five games, coming off a 3-1 loss in Colorado on Thursday night. These teams split their first two games in Calgary, with the Flames winning 4-2 at home in December and then the Kraken answering with a 5-1 win on the road in January. I’d slightly lean Seattle wins here at home, but I’m not touching them. I’d lean the over, but I’m not betting it at 6.5. I’ll stay off this shitty game completely.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
This should be a fun game in the West. The Avalanche clinched the President’s Trophy as the best team in the NHL this season with their 3-1 win at home against the Flames on Thursday. They have nothing to play for these last four games now with first place locked up with their 52-16-10 record, and have won eight of their last eleven games. The Golden Knights are on a five game point streak since their coaching change, having their four game win streak under Torts end on Thursday, blowing a 3-1 lead in the third period in Seattle to lose 4-3 in a shootout. They’re tied with the Ducks in second place in the pillow fight Pacific with a 36-26-17 record, a point back from the Oilers for first place in the division. Colorado won both previous games between these teams on the road in Vegas, winning 4-2 on Halloween and then 6-5 in a shootout in December. Even with nothing to play for, I’d lean the Avs win here on the road, but don’t really love it from a betting perspective. I’d lean the under at 6.5, but not enough to bet that either. I considered point props in this game on MacKinnon, Necas, Eichel, Marner, and Stone, but they’re all so expensive that the smart move is just staying off this game.
Sharks vs. Canucks (10:00)
Every game the Canucks play is a brutal matchup. The Sharks are likely missing playoffs, four points back from the Kings for the second Wild Card spot in the West. They’re coming off two losses in a row, getting blown out 6-1 in Anaheim on Thursday night in the second half of a back to back after losing 5-2 at home to the Oilers on Wednesday to fall to 37-34-7 on the season. The Canucks are far and away the worst team in the NHL with a 22-48-8 record, with the best lottery odds at Gavin McKenna already locked up. Coming off a 4-1 loss in LA on Thursday, they’re on a four game losing streak with just six wins in their last 40 games. San Jose’s 3-0 this year against Vancouver, winning 3-2 at home in November, 6-3 on the road in December, and 5-2 on the road in January. I fully expect the Sharks to complete the season sweep here at home and to drop down the price on this game, I’ll parlay the moneyline with Macklin Celebrini to get a point for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Bets
.5u Senators ML (-130)
1u Penguins/Capitals over 6.5 (-110)
.5u parlay: Connor McDavid/Artemi Panarin/Adrian Kempe 1+ point each (-115)
.5u Blues ML (-142)
1u Stars in regulation (-110)
.5u parlay: Robertson/Rantanen/Johnston/Zibanejad 1+ point each (+214)
1u Mammoth/Hurricanes over 6.5 (-105)
1u Canadiens ML (-135)
.5u parlay: Nick Suzuki/Cole Caufield/Juraj Slafkovsky 1+ point each (-115)
1u parlay: Sharks ML/Macklin Celebrini over 0.5 point (-160)
Record: 918-1014-2 (-94.24 units)
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