AT&T Byron Nelson – Gambling Preview 2019

Trinity Forest Golf Club – Dallas, TX

Course Breakdown
7380 yds, par 71 with 4 par 3’s and 3 par 5’s (2 are reachable), the Pars 4s have a large variety of lengths, birdiefest as long as it isn’t too windy, links style course with no trees, extremely wide rolling fairways, could get windy which will make a big impact, looks like a US Open or British Open type course, high grass native areas, no rough, no water at all, large bunkers, knowledge of this course could help a bit, easy to hit fairways (~80%), a lot of holes require hitting the right spot on the fairway to set up for approach shots (lot of which is risk/reward), easy to hit greens (~77%), Bermuda greens, greens are very large and firm with small landing areas due to many contours on the greens and a lot of undulation

Tournament Notes
• Only the 2nd year that this course has hosted this tournament, was previously hosted by TPC Four Seasons

Key Stats
Ballstriking, SG: Approach, Par 4 scoring

Field
Garbage field besides Brooks and Hideki

Defending Champion: Aaron Wise (-23)
Runner Up Last Year: Marc Leishman (-20)

One and Done: Henrik Stenson
Alternate: Brooks Koepka

One and Done Considerations: Brooks, Hideki, Stenny, Keith Mitchell

Players
Brooks: 11400: +630 – By far the best player in the field, should be able to crush it off the tee and destroy the rest of the field, but probably just won’t give a fuck and mail it in this week. The number is pretty much unbettable
Hideki: 11000: +1400 – Dialed on approach, elite ballstriking, tough to bet at this number or play on DK at this price because he just doesn’t win enough
Stenny: 10300: +2200 – Has been great on the irons and on approach, 3rd in DK pts, really good at long Par 4s, good at bogie avoidance
Aaron Wise: 9400: +2200 – Defending champ which was largely from putting, played decent with a T18 last week and was T10 in SG: T2G, long enough off the tee, plays long Par 4s well, rolls in birdies, T10 in Bridie+%, SG: OTT and Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yds (over past 35 rounds)
Killa Keith: 9100: +3300 – T3 here last year and led the field in ballstriking, really good T2G, winner this year, T8 last week, Bermuda is by far his best putting surface, crushes it off the tee, T10 in Birdie+ %, good on long Par 4s, great on Par 5s
RCB: 8600: +4000 – Seems too underpriced in this garbage field for the talent that he has
Scottie Scheffler: 7900: +5500 – A lot of golf Twitter is talking this kid up this week, web.com player on only his 3rd PGA start (20th at Valero and 45th at Sanderson Farms including being 9th in SG: Approach at Valero and 15th in driving distance) but is tearing up the web.com Tour, in the web: 12th in driving distance, T45 in driving accuracy, T30 in GIR, one of the best putters on the web, 2nd best Birdie+ %, obviously it’s a risk since he’s not even on the PGA Tour but if there’s any week to give it a shot, it’s this week
Mullinax: 7600: +7500 – 2nd in SG Approach last week (behind Rory), solid T2G, hits it long, good with long irons, really good at Par 4s

DraftKings/Betting Notes
No chance I play DK with this garbage field this week. Every player under 9k is tough to predict. I’ll probably do some H2H bets again