RBC Heritage – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Last week was a fantastic tournament at the Charles Schwab Challenge with a loaded leaderboard on Sunday. I had a pretty nice bet on Morikawa that came down to a missed putt on 18 to win and then another missed putt to extend the playoff. Even with the loss on that, I still had a blast watching this tournament, getting that gambling rush and having golf on the PGA back. This week, the PGA Tour goes to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, SC for the RBC Heritage, the tournament I’ve had my most historical betting success.

Harbour Town Golf Links – Hilton Head, SC

Course Breakdown

Par 71, Pete Dye designed course, 7099 yards (short for a PGA course), 4 par 3s, 3 par 5s (2 are reachable by most), thick tight tree lined course that really rewards driving accuracy and positioning off the tee (has to target specific parts of the fairway to set up approach shots), plotters course that handcuffs bombers a bit, overhanging trees so accuracy is important everywhere on the course, Bermuda fairways, easier than average fairways to hit (~65%), less than driver course with shortest drives on tour last season, driving distance does not matter here, bunkers and water hazards are in play if you miss wildly off the tee, very tough greens to hit (~57%), smallest greens on tour, well-guarded Bermuda greens, slower than average green speeds, bunkers and overhanging trees guarding most greens and water around a few greens as well, it could get very windy and the swirling wind could play a big factor

Tournament Notes

  • Usually this is the week after The Masters and the field this week is WAY better than it’s ever been with the top 6 players in the world in the field
  • Course history seems to be more important than current form here, but this year’s field could throw off some course history stuff
  • Before last year, the last 6 winners prior have been trailing by at least 3 strokes after 54 holes (CT Pan trailed 2 strokes last year going into the final round)
  • Only 2 54 hole leaders have won in the last 11 years
  • SG: Approach here is twice as important as ATG and OTT on T10 finishes and about 3x as important on T5 finishes
  • Two years ago, 11 of the T15 in SG Approach came T16. So SG: Approach is very important here
  • This event is being played two months later than it usually does on most years

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: ATG, Driving Accuracy

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200, 150-175

Corollary Courses

Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge)

Field

Way better field than most years, with pretty much everyone besides Tiger and Cantlay in the field like last week

Defending Champion: CT Pan (-12)

Runner Up Last Year: Matt Kuchar (-11)

One and Done: Matt Kuchar

Alternate: Collin Morikawa

One and Done Considerations: Bryson, Rory, JT, Morikawa, Kuchar

Players

Rory: 11300: +1210 – Best in the field in every category on Pete Dye courses (1st in SG: Total, SG: T2G, ballstriking, OTT, 2nd in Approach over last 50 rounds on Pete Dye courses), played like shit last week

Bryson: 10700: +1260 – Ballstriking was awesome last week but his putting sucked, History here with MC, T3, MC, T4 the last four years, T3 last week at Charles Schwab

Sungjae Im: 9700: +2000 – Irons have been great this year, worked on short game over layoff which seemed to improve a lot last week, T10 last week at Charles Schwab

Kuch: 8300: +3300 – MC’d last week on the number with a double on the last hole, one of the best Pete Dye players in the field (2nd SG: T2G, 8th in DK pts), 12/12 made cuts here with last 6 years here: 4 T11s (2nd and a 5th) and a win, 3rd best course history in the field

Kisner: 7700: +3500 – Good on Pete Dye courses, T29 last week at Charles Schwab, good around the greens, putts his best on Bermuda, good 400-450 yds

Niemann: 7400: +9000 – Good on approach from 150-175 yds, good on Par 4s 450-500 yds, T32 last week at Charles Schwab

Rory Sabbatini: 7200: +10000 – Has played well this season, T14 last week at Charles Schwab, good short game, good course history here with 4 T10s in the last 10 years here including last year

Wesley Bryan: 6300: +30000 – Hasn’t played on the PGA Tour in like 2 years, former winner here 3 years ago (my biggest gambling win ever), worth a couple bucks at these betting odds for a shot and I like the T10 and T20s bet too at his price

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • My biggest gambling win ever came here three years ago when Wes Bryan won and I came in 7th in the big $33 GPP on Draftkings on Easter Sunday
  • Milly Maker available on DK again
  • Generally lower 6/6 percentage on DK here
  • A lot of winners here move up the leaderboard on Sunday, so look at live betting opportunities

Bets

$15 Matt Kuchar: WIN +3300

$15 Matt Kuchar: T5 +850

$15 Kevin Kisner: WIN +3500

$15 Kevin Kisner: T5 +1100

$6 Joaquin Niemann: WIN +9000

$6 Joaquin Niemann: T5 +2000

$5 Rory Sabbatini: WIN +10000

$5 Rory Sabbatini: T5 +2000

$2 Wesley Bryan: WIN +30000

$2 Wesley Bryan: T5 +6600

$3 Wesley Bryan: T10 +3000

$5 Wesley Bryan: T20 +1400

$2 Wesley Bryan: FRL +17500

All outright wins are to win around $500, each way to T5 for the same risk amount as the outright.


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