Last week I hit another T5 with Niemann (it was cut in half with the dead heat rules but still) to follow up the Morikawa T5 on his second place finish two weeks ago. Let’s see if I could stay hot with the PGA going to TPC River Highlands in Hartford, CT for the Travelers Championship with the best field it’s ever had.
Course Breakdown
6841 yd. Par 70, one of the shortest courses on tour, Pete Dye course, 7 par 4s are between 400-450yds, both par 5s are reachable, guys could club down and hit their spots where they want, lot of birdie opportunities here, doesn’t favor any particular ball flight, wide and easy fairways to hit here (~68%), trees in play if you miss the fairways, the fairways get narrower the farther from the tee you go, first cut of rough isn’t very penal but gets tougher with bigger misses, soft and receptive predominately POA greens with a mix of bentgrass, greens are smaller but easier than average to hit (~67%), slow greens have a bit of slope and not much undulation, lot of the greens are elevated, pins could be located in tough spots, greens are guarded by collection areas, water, thick rough and bunkers, water in play in about 1/3 of holes but isn’t a big factor
Tournament Notes
- 4 of the last 10 winners got their first career win here
- Since 2001, only 2 golfers (Phil in 2001, Spieth in 2017) won on their first time here
- SG: OTT is much more important here than ATG, but both are outweighed by approach
Key Stats
SG: Ballstriking, SG: T2G, SG: Approach, Par 4 scoring
Main approach proximity distance range: 150-175 yds, 125-150 yds.
Corollary Courses
- Pete Dye tracks. Slightly different than other Pete Dye tracks but still has similar elements
- Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success
- Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship) – lot of crossover success
Field
Field is better than usual still coming off the coronavirus pandemic layoff with the top 7 players in the world in the field
Defending Champion: Chez Reavie (-17)
Runner Up Last Year: Zach Suchar, Keegan Bradley (-13)
One and Done: Sergio Garcia
Alternate: Collin Morikawa
One and Done Considerations: DJ, Bubba, Sergio
Players
DJ: 9400: +1800 – T10 in OTT, T2G and Ballstriking, 2nd behind Brooks in driving distance last week, putts best on POA, even though he’s been shit this year he’s rounding back into form and he’s still the #6 ranked golfer in the world, 18:1 is good value on Deej here and good value on DK under 10000, 7th in SG: OTT this season
Morikawa: 9100: +2800 – 2nd two weeks ago at Charles Schwab (lost in playoff and screwed me), 3rd in Approach, 8th in SG T2G, fantastic ballstriking
Bubba: 8800: +2600 – Three time winner here (2018, 2015, 2010), 7th in driving distance this year, 11th in SG: OTT, T22 in Par 4 scoring, 18th in proximity 150-175 yds
Sergio: 8500: +3500 – T5 last week at RBC Heritage, 5th in SG: T2G, 3rd in SG: OTT, T19 in Par 4 efficiency 400-450 yds, T10 in proximity 150-175 yds,
Hovland: 7800: +4000 – T21 last week at RBC Heritage, 9th in SG: OTT, 2nd in proximity 150-175 yds
Betting Notes
- Since the odds this week of all the guys I like are close to the top of the board, I’ll be waiting till after round 1 to live bet them at possibly better value as I don’t think its worth the amount of bankroll for the week for my usual strategy. I’ll be posting them as I add them.
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