Memorial Tournament – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020.

Last week’s Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village was fantastic with the most entertaining Sunday golf of the year. And I hit another T5 on Viktor Hovland, not a big deal. We’re back to the same course again for the Memorial Tournament at Jack’s Place with a major-esqe field including the best player of all time, Tiger.

Muirfield Village Golf Club – Columbus, OH
“Jack’s Place”

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7456 yds, Jack Nicklaus designed, bent grass fairways and greens with a little bit of poa mixed in, tree lined very easy to hit fairways (~69%) with deep fairway bunkers that are penal (only about 40% of golfers that hit fairway bunkers make par, 73 bunkers, 13 water hazards that are in play on 11 holes, water is placed in tricky spots with creeks running through the course with some on entire holes, less than driver course that favors placement for approach shots, difficult to hit out of thick 3 inch rough, harder than average greens to hit (~62%), extremely fast small greens with heavy undulation, many of the greens slope back to front, water and greenside bunkers in play, lot of rain in the area lately should make it a bit softer and easier

Tournament Notes

  • There will be different pin placements and tee boxes used for this tournament compared to the setup last week for the Workday Charity Open and the greens should run faster (back to the usual 13.5 on stimpmeter vs. last week’s 11.5) and the rough will be more penal. The total distance of the course and the yardages of each hole will be the same as last week
  • First time the PGA has played back to back tournaments on the same course
  • Last week Morikawa and JT finished 1st and 2nd while being 1st and 2nd in SG: Approach for the season

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Ballstriking, SG: T2G, SG: ATG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds, 175-200 yds.

Field

133 Player Invitational Major Strength Field

Defending Champion (The Memorial): Patrick Cantlay (-19)

Runner Up Last Year (The Memorial): Adam Scott (-17)

Champion Here Last Week (Workday Charity Open): Colin Morikawa (-19 in playoff)

Runner Up Here Last Week (Workday Charity Open): Justin Thomas (-19)

One and Done: Viktor Hovland

Alternate: Tiger Woods

One and Done Considerations: JT, Tiger, Hovland

Top Five (not taking into account odds/price): JT, Bryson, Rory, Morikawa, Hovland

Players

Tiger: 9000: +2200 – He’s been fine coming off long layoffs before (his last win at Zozo came off a long layoff), winner 5 times here, drove the ball well during the Match with Peyton, still a top 5 iron player in the world at a track that’s all about approach, give me that with the best golfer of all time for 20:1 and it’s gonna be tough not to bet that

Hovland: 9500: +1785 – 3rd here last week, 6th in Approach here last week, 7th in Approach on the season, 9th in proximity 150-175, 9th in SG T2G, 5th in SG: OTT

Ancer: 8500: +2000 – 11th in Approach on the season, 11th in SG: T2G, T5 in proximity 150-175 yds, Over the last 50 rounds: 12th OTT, 17th Approach, 4th 150-175 yds. Since restart: 3rd OTT, 1st in Approach 

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • 6/6% on DK should be higher this week than the last few weeks since the field is smaller.
  • Pricing is soft on Draftkings this week with a major strength field so balanced builds could work nicely with a loaded 9k range.
  • I’ll be looking at SG: Approach leaders live after Round 1 and 2 for Live Betting opportunities with how important that stat is on this course.
  • A lot of players at the top of the board I love but just can’t bet at their prices so I’ll be watching for good prices on them live mid-tournament especially Justin Thomas. I think the winner comes from 20:1 or lower and that isn’t worth betting. 

Bets

$23 Tiger Woods: WIN +2200


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