3M Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

TPC Twin Cities – Minneapolis, MN

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7481 yds, designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman, altitude above sea level so shots will go farther than normal, was a birdiefest on the Sr. Tour (average winning score of -21) which will continue on the PGA, ton of water here with 27 water hazards (in play on 14 holes), 6 Par 4s over 450 yds, wide tree lined fairways, bunkers in the landing zones, trees aren’t bunched up with a lot of room between the trees and fairway, above average size greens, run off area only on the front of most greens, rough, bunkers and water surrounding the greens, pure bent grass greens (only Colonial and Augusta have that), course should play firmer than last year since there’s hasn’t been a lot of rain there and its been so hot, super easy birdie fest, better than tour average driving accuracy last year (66% vs. 61%), better than tour average GIR % last year (74% vs. 65%), longer than tour average driving distance (290 vs. 283 yds)

Tournament Notes

  • Last year was the first time TPC Twin Cities is hosting a PGA Tour event, formerly hosted the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour
  • SG: ATG doesn’t really matter here at all. Had zero impact on T10 finishes last year here
  • 3 of the Top 7 finishers last year didn’t even gain a stroke putting including Wolff and Morikawa in 1st and 2nd
  • Last year, the 12 golfers that finished T10 averaged 23 birdies or better and all were -16 or better and there were only 3 double bogies or worse
  • Last year, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 shot -7 or better on the Par 4s and only Sam Burns and Troy Merritt shot worse than -5
  • Last year, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained at least 2.2 SG: OTT

Key Stats

Ballstriking, SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds, 175-200 yds

Corollary Courses

Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic) – Lot of crossover success on the very limited data on these two courses, same shitty fields and similar easy courses

Field

156 player field – Worst field of the year

Defending Champion: Matthew Wolff (-21)

Runner Up Last Year: Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa (-20)

One and Done: Lucas Glover

Alternate: Doc Redman

One and Done Considerations: Lucas Glover, Doc Redman

Players

The Glove: 9400: +3300 – T7 here last year, Since the restart, 1st in Approach, 1st in Birdie+, 7th in opportunities gained, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 12 in SG: OTT, 2nd in SG: T2G, last 5 events since the restart: T38, T21, T20, T21, T23

Erik Van Rooyen: 8800: +3000 – Minnesota Golden Gopher, 5th in SG: T2G at Memorial last week, 2nd in Approach behind Rahm at Memorial, 2nd in proximity from 200+ yds over the last 24 rounds, he’s gonna be chalky this week so I don’t love that play, T21 at the Memorial last week

Doc Redman: 8700: +3500 – MC here last year but is having a completely different season, since the restart 2nd in approach, 8th in Birdie+, 1st in Opportunities gained, 1st in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yds, last 5 events since the restart: MC, T21, T11, T21, T58

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • I hate this field, it’s so trash. DJ could easily smoke the field (which has value around 10:1 in this field when he was 16 last week in a major strength field, but just not how I met golf) or some random player could get their first PGA win. I’m staying off this tournament for the most part. As usual I’ll probably look at live betting this shit show.

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