WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Last week at the 3M Open sucked, trash tournament. But this week we’re back with a WGC field for the FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

TPC Southwind – Memphis, TN

Course Breakdown

7244 yd. Par 70, plays significantly longer, one of the top 15 hardest courses on tour every year, 7 of the Par 4s are over 450 yds, both Par 5s are reachable, most balls in the water (in play on 10 holes) of any course on tour by a substantial amount (almost 1400 more than the next which is TPC Sawgrass), back 9 is very difficult, holes 17 and 18 here see over 200 bogies or worse through the week, driving accuracy is way lower than tour average (54% vs. 61%), lower GIR % than tour average (59% vs. 65%), narrow and very difficult to hit fairways, trees, bunkers and water in play if you miss the fairway, Bermuda rough which is hard to judge distance out of but it isn’t too thick or tall, smaller than average Bermuda greens surrounded by bunkers and water, fast (12 on stimpmeter) firm and undulating greens, hot and humid weather here could play a factor

Tournament Notes

  • Last year, replaced WGC: Bridgestone Invitational hosted by Firestone CC
  • Xander and Russell Knox are the only non-major winners to win WGC stroke play events in the last 6 years
  • Formerly used to be crappy full field FedEx St. Jude Classic tournament
  • Prior to last year, a lot of the top end players historically didn’t play this course much (besides Brooks and Dustin) so course history may not be as helpful as in other events due to the difference in field strength
  • SG: Approach is historically 2.5x times more important than SG: OTT here
  • Last year when he won, Brooks was 1st in SG: Putting, T10 in Approach and T10 OTT for the tournament

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Ballstriking, SG: T2G, Par 4 Scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds

Field

78 Players (up from 63 last year), No Cut

Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka (-16)

Runner Up Last Year: Webb Simpson (-13)

One and Done: Xander Schauffele

Alternate: Brooks Koepka

One and Done Considerations: JT, Rory, Bryson, Xander

Players

JT: 10700: +1010 – T12 here last year, since the restart: 3rd in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yds, 16th in opportunities gained, I like his DK price the best over the other players above 10k

Xander: 9800: +1625 – former WGC winner and Tour Championship winner, plays well in no cut events, since the restart 3rd in SG: OTT, 19th in Approach, 7th in ballstriking, 1st in GIRs gained, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yds, 5th in driving distance, 18th in driving accuracy, T27 here last year

Hovland: 9400: +2000 – Its been real hard to not bet Hovland every week since the restart but I don’t really see him winning a WGC yet, since the restart: 1st in Approach, 1st in ballstriking, 4th in SG: OTT, 3rd in GIR, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 1st in opportunities gained, 18th in driving distance

Brooks: 9200: +1800 – Defending champ and good history here before it was a WGC, big money WGC so he actually cares, irons haven’t been good lately, 9th in SG: OTT, 8th in driving distance

Billy Ho: 8500: +3000 – Last 2 weeks: 7th and 13th, 9th here last year, T10 4 of the last 5 years here at St. Jude Invitational, decent Par 4 player, 18th in SG: OTT, decent in driving distance and accuracy, don’t love his price

Sergio: 8000: +6000 – His putter sucks lately, 5th in ballstriking, 9th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 9th in GIR, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yds, 12th in opportunities gained, 12th in driving distance, I like his odds a lot for his statistical fit for this course

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • I don’t really bet WGC’s because the odds are lower cause of the small fields and elite golfers win WGC
  • Draftkings for WGC blows since with the small field its tougher to put more unique lineups together with everyone being chalky. Big swings too with a premium on finish points so don’t bother even checking it till Sunday if you play
  • I like the 9k range a lot on DK

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