Last week we had a spectacular PGA Championship for the first major of the year capped off with Collin Morikawa’s fantastic Sunday finish. Although I didn’t get the chance to publish my write up for it, I hit Morikawa as a winner as one of my only three picks (check my Twitter to see that full breakdown). This week the PGA goes back to a not very strong field for the Wyndham Championship in the last week leading up to the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7127 yds, Donald Ross design, one of the easiest courses on tour, birdiefest, Bermuda grass throughout, both Par 5s are easily reachable (over 70 eagles on the 2 Par 5s last year), 8 of the 12 Par 4s are in 400-450 yds range, 2 Par 4s play over 500 yds, average sized tree lined fairways, just a few fairway bunkers, light rough, over 70% of drives hit the fairway (way above tour average), lot of less than driver off the tee, placement off the tee is more important than length, GIR from the fairway is over 80%, GIR from the rough is around 50% so thats a huge gap, quick undulated and sloped multi-tiered greens (back to front), there are a lot of shallow bunkers and water guarding the greens on a few holes
Tournament Notes
- Final event of the regular PGA Tour season before the FedEx Cup playoffs (Top 125 make the Northern Trust at TPC Boston next week), so it makes this event matter a bit more
- Typically this event doesn’t follow a major, but does this year because of the PGA Championship moving due to the coronavirus pandemic
- 6 of the last 8 winners have ranked T15 for the week in Driving Accuracy
- The greens were switched from bentgrass to Bermuda in 2012, so course history prior to 2012 could be a bit difference if that’s a factor
- Pretty much any skill set could win here
Key Stats
SG Approach, Fairways Gained (Driving Accuracy), Par 4 Scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds, 125-150 yds
Corollary Courses
Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
Field
156 players currently with guys WD’ing like flies, pretty weak field
Defending Champion: JT Poston (-22)
Runner Up Last Year: Webb Simpson (-21)
One and Done: Paul Casey
Alternate: Tommy Fleetwood
One and Done Considerations: Webb, Fleetwood, Casey
Players
Webb Simpson: 11200: +850 – last 5 years here: 2,T2,3,T72,T6, former winner here in 2011, significantly the best in SG: Total here over the last 5 years (43.56 vs. Snedeker in 2nd at 29.26), on Par 70s under 7200 yds over last 50 rounds:1st in SG: Total, 1st in SG: T2G, 2nd in Ballstriking, 1st in short game, 3rd in Approach, 1st in putting, 1st in DK pts, last 36 rounds: 1st in SG: Par 4, 4th in Par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yds, 1st in Par 4 efficiency: 350-400 yds and 500+ yds, 9th in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yds, has his regular caddy back this week, has a house here and his daughter’s name is Wyndham
Tommy Fleetwood: 10500: +1475 – Still has never won in the US, on Par 70s under 7200 yds over last 36 rounds: T1 in Par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yds, 7th in Par 3 efficiency, 13th in Par 3 efficiency over 225 yds (2 of them on the course), 2nd in SG: Total, 4th in SG: short game, 12th in Ballstriking, 10th in Approach, 5th in SG: ATG, 13th in putting, 2nd in DK pts
Paul Casey: 10300: +1675 – T2 last week at the PGA Championship, on Par 70s under 7200 yds over last 50 rounds: 2nd in Par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yds, 7th in SG: Total, 2nd in SG: T2G, 3rd in Ballstriking, 6th in SG: Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, his putting blows
Norlander: 7300: +5000 – Over last 36 rounds: 4th in SG: Approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 4th in Fairways Gained, 4th in bogie avoidance, 18th in Par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yds
Jim Furyk: 7200: +5000 – On Par 70s under 7200 yds over last 50 rounds: 4th in SG: Total, 5th in SG: T2G, 7th in Ballstriking, 2nd in SG: Approach, won on the Sr. Tour recently
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